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Cost of ownership just improved given "negative value" of non-autonomous cars

Cost of ownership just improved given "negative value" of non-autonomous cars

Elon recently commented that he expected autonomous cars to become commonplace, and that cars without the feature will have negative value.
If Elon is right, the true cost of ownership just improved 10k to 20k? (assuming you are replacing a normal gasoline car with a Tesla - you are getting a trade-in value that has not yet been impacted by obsolescence)
Let's call this "trade-in savings".

Then, true cost of ownership = cost of buying Tesla minus resale value minus net fuel savings minus trade-in savings.
(does not factor important benefits of ownership such as top of class safety, environmental friendliness or driving pleasure)

Please let me know if I missed anything, thanks!

Red Sage ca us | 6 november 2015

Current Tesla Motors products have Autopilot, and are not Autonomous, thus when truly Autonomous vehicles arrive today's Model S and Model X would suffer similar degradation of value. Not that it matters all that much, because by the time such Autonomy is both allowed by law and regulation and readily available the Model X will be in its second generation and ten years old.

Roamer@AZ USA | 10 november 2015

We are a long way away from autonomous driving.

MyXinTx | 12 november 2015

Wait a second...doesn't a fully functional Auto-pilot car like the X have all the sensory and mechanical hardware it needs to be autonomous? From my amateur perspective, all that may be needed is the enhanced "brain" and enhanced network communication. Can't that be made possible with a simple CPU and software upgrade?

I am hoping, perhaps dreaming, that the X will be autonomous once that capability is approved.

What am I missing?

aesculus | 12 november 2015

Nope. If you look at their primary supplier, MobileEye, you will see that up to 8 cameras are currently expected to be in place for fully autonomous driving. These are not really available for production until next year from what I have read. We have seen both MX and MS mules with add on cameras over the last several months supposedly being used to test this capability.

MyXinTx | 13 november 2015

Well I can hope that by the time my X is actually ready, perhaps they will have those 8 cameras...like a spider

Red Sage ca us | 14 november 2015

Could today's Model S or Model X navigate streets, roads, and highways on their own? Sure. Presuming those streets, roads, and highways were completely devoid of traffic, pedestrians, pets, wild animals, or obstacles, and had very clearly marked lanes. This type of place does not exist in 'The Real World', only on closed courses for testing.

MyXinTx | 16 november 2015

@Red Sage ca us

I thought the current auto-pilot feature can handle traffic, but everything else you mentioned not so sure of.

So other than the 8 cameras mentioned, what additional hardware will be required to allow for Tesla Autonomous driving?

What does the Google Car have that the recent Tesla cars don't?

A single search produced this link re Google Car, which then had a link to the Tesla Auto-pilot..

Is fully autonomous driving a primary goal of TM?

http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/goo...

Red Sage ca us | 17 november 2015

When I use the word 'streets' I am referring to surface streets with signal lights, cross sections, intersections, roundabouts, pedestrian traffic, jay walkers, pets chasing cars, children chasing balls, people riding bicycles or skateboards, with and against traffic... Autopilot is not (yet) equipped to handle those situations.

Primarily, the Google Cars use something called LIDAR... Similar to radar, but done using lasers instead of radio waves. Their emitters are rather large, extremely expensive, and positively ugly.

holidayday | 19 november 2015

"What does the Google Car have that the recent Tesla cars don't?"

It has an extremely limited scope of known streets where it runs. It already knows where the lines on the streets are supposed to be. It's also limited by how fast it can go (I think 25 mph).
Google may test some cars on new streets, but it's currently not ready for full on "replace your current car" type of driving.