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What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

Hoping this thread might pick up steam as TSLA stock goes through some amazing intra-day and open/closing swings due to the large short interest (I'm assuming).

For instance: Yesterday the stock dipped really low at closing so I bought. Today it jumped back up and I sold for a healthy profit.

Why did the stock dip yesterday and then rise so much today? I didn't see any news that would justify it.

Ohms.Law | 18 juli 2012

John56: "...now that it appears word of delays is leaking out."

WHAT DELAYS? Is this a rumor or does everyone know something I don't? (which is easy)

If someone knows about production delays, I would recommend starting a new thread.

John56 | 18 juli 2012

All I know is from posts of reservation holders at the TMC forum who have been told that they are slowing down production somewhat due to "quality issues". Elon wants to make sure that all the early issues are cleared up before ramping up into full production mode. The latest 'slowdown' seems to be above the slow ramp up already in place. Most current sig holders that have completed their paperwork are posting that they are being told to expect November deliveries.

VincentA | 18 juli 2012

I think the reversal today is as a result of cooler heads prevailing and seeing this tempest in a teapot as a buying opportunity dip:

""While we cannot rule out the prospect of certain customer orders being shifted a month or two, we have discovered no evidence of any widespread production issues and believe that a handful of order delays wouldn't threaten its 2012 target of 5,000 deliveries," Chew wrote in his research report. He rated Tesla shares a buy with a $50 price target."

nickjhowe | 18 juli 2012

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see delays. Here we are a month after the Founders event and they are still showing "release candidates" at GetAmped. It looked to me that the Founders car event was timed for very specific reasons, and the they were a long way from being ready to deliver customer cars. There was still a lot of work to do in the software, the interior needs more work, the leather on the seats needs more work, they haven't set a release configuration for the "opportunity console", they are considering eliminating the traction whine, maybe movable rear head restsetc, etc.

There could be all kinds of tweaks before we see a "real" production vehicle. My guess - which is worth almost nothing and is pure speculation - is that all the ramp calculations that have been discussed are way off. Instead of a very slow ramp from now to the end of the year, I think the initial deliveries are a ways off, and then they'll very rapidly increase production once the initial config is locked in. My 2¢

Brian H | 18 juli 2012

12:30 - took 3 hrs to reverse the initial drop, now up from the opening.

The "Chew" statement mentioned above is here:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Analyst+Defends+Tesla+(TSLA),+Says+Checks+Show+Considerable+Rise+in+Model+S+Reservations/7587305.html

Ohms.Law | 18 juli 2012

Thanks nickjhowe. I think your 2 cents are right on. TM is too smart to have come all this way, in such a short amount of time, to leave anything to chance. In fact this may not be a delay at all to TM and rather part of their long-planned preproduction process of quality control. Get some "release candidates" out there, listen carefully and inspect thoroughly, tweak then launch. So to speak.

KevinR.co.us | 18 juli 2012

Tesla is getting it right the first time--momentum is forward. TSLA is doing what I expect it will--momentum is upward. I expect the Model S will be tweeked a little by the time my number comes up. This may be a good time to buy TSLA while we wait to buy our Teslas.

nickjhowe | 18 juli 2012

The Green Car Reports article seems to line up with my speculation. If they are sticking to the # by year end, but delaying the initial run then that suggests there is no fundamental problem. Sorry for the Sig folks who might have to wait a little longer, but I take this as good news, not bad. I wish other companies would avoid rushing things to market and compromising quality.

EdG | 18 juli 2012

I'd prefer to wait another week or two and have them fix the problem before I get the car.

I would also like it if, when I bring my car in for the annual service, they add in all the nice stuff they later decided to put into new cars.

Brian H | 19 juli 2012

I notice they slipped in a 2013 estimate of 15,000 instead of 20,000. A bit spinny, IMO.

Volker.Berlin | 26 juli 2012

Seems like the stock price may have bottomed out as a result of yesterday's investor's conference call.
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/second-quarter-2012-financial-re...

Volker.Berlin | 26 juli 2012

investors' -- sorry Brian H

Brian H | 26 juli 2012

Still down from opening. Buy! Buy! Mortgage your heirlooms! >:)

Brian H | 31 juli 2012

Last day of July, sitting in the mid $27 range. Possibly because there have been 0 confirmed deliveries in the entire month?

Teoatawki | 31 juli 2012

Apparently 1 was delivered out of the Bellevue store last weekend. I haven't seen details other than pearl white.

stephen.kamichik | 1 august 2012

Was that GB's car?

steven.maes | 2 august 2012

How low can it go ? We are around $26 yesterday. I am wondering if I should buy some stock.... Why would it go any lower ? ...

Vawlkus | 2 august 2012

Because of the trolls on the stock market writing bad press, and noone's interested in running the good press.

Timo | 2 august 2012

Some of the trolls have visited here too I think. All those latest "interior is bad" threads sound quite a bit like them.

jerry3 | 2 august 2012

Timo,

I wouldn't put it that way [stock trolls in the forum]. I believe most of the shorts wouldn't even look at a Tesla forum, let alone post there. They are just shorting on the technicalities without any real knowledge of the company.

I'd be more inclined to think that some people have looked at the Model S as a panacea, rather than as a car, and have made a high emotional investment in it--some of them have had this emotional attachment for years. This leads to a highly emotional response when something appears to be lacking. The same kind of thing happened in the early days of the Prius. Some people were very incensed because it didn't have everything they wanted or solve all their problems. A few even returned their car.

GoTeslaChicago | 2 august 2012

I've been thinking about this for a while. Many have posted on the forums that they have bought Tesla stock (in many cases in the initial public offering) and hoped to use their profits on the stock to pay for their Tesla or at least the upgrades. Now that the signatures are about to be delivered, perhaps many of these holders are cashing in, therefore causing the stock to go down, paradoxically, just when we thought it should be going up! If so, this too shall pass (probably by October).

Another serious factor might be the fear of a secondary offering. Elon was asked about it in the conference call. If that should happen, you should buy the news, as the rumor has already been sold.

Teoatawki | 2 august 2012

GoTeslaChicago:

No way the sig buyers cashing in are affecting the stock price. There just aren't enough of us to have a measurable effect on the stock price when the average daily volume is 1.6M shares changing hands.

I'd buy the secondary offering concerns as a reason, but not a GOOD reason. There won't be enough shares offered (even if they do have another offering) to dilute current stockholders' value. Panic early, panic often is no attitude for a serious investor.

davecolene0606 | 2 august 2012

sure makes it easier to pick it up cheap though.... Eh?

David70 | 2 august 2012

Yeh. If I had any money left to invest.

Tiebreaker | 2 august 2012

Better news (2 hours ago):

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-02/tesla-makes-first-50-model-s...

Let's see how it goes tomorrow...

MikeV | 3 august 2012

Ever since mid-July there have been a number of posters on TMC verbally cutting up anyone that express any misgivings about Model S. Some of the misgiven seem like trolls but others may have a legitimate gripe. The negativity assassins use lawyer-like mis-direction in their posts and double down if resisted. I'd say shorts and longs are both using surrogates to pollute the forum over there.

Brian H | 7 august 2012

steven.maes@pan... | August 2, 2012
How low can it go ? We are around $26 yesterday. I am wondering if I should buy some stock.... Why would it go any lower ? ...

From your KB to God's eyes. It's gone up about $1/day since then! I think the impact of actual deliveries is being felt.

Vawlkus | 8 august 2012

Can I start hoping it hits 50 per before years end? :P

Volker.Berlin | 8 august 2012

Vawlkus, at least you are not alone. :-)

Brian H | 8 august 2012

When the Great Short Squeeze comes, all prayers will be answered!

;)
>:)

KevinR.co.us | 8 august 2012

Amen brother Brian!! Deliveries starting. Gas prices rising (in the US). Just a matter of time....

Volker.Berlin | 10 august 2012

"I increasingly suspect that Tesla's aim is not just to create electric vehicles (EVs), but to create an entire EV ecosystem. An exclusive infrastructure framework in particular could deliver the lasting differentiation necessary to deliver the high margins and high growth that are essential for Musk to chalk up another "mission accomplished." Of course, conventional wisdom would suggest open standards over walled gardens. If you get the package right, however, walls work pretty well. Just ask Apple."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/786711-a-43-billion-tesla-musk-s-incenti...

Brian H | 10 august 2012
jerry3 | 10 august 2012

-- Tesla's aim is not just to create electric vehicles (EVs), but to create an entire EV ecosystem.

That works for me. Just as with computers, I don't like playing system administrator at home more than I have to (I get to play system administrator at work). So for the computer I just want to use it, and for a car I just want to drive it.

Vawlkus | 10 august 2012

It took him this long to figure out the Tesla Secret Master Plan? Despite it being posted?
Oi gevalt -.-

Brian H | 11 august 2012

As a conscientious and ethical journalist, he respected the label "Secret" and didn't read or report it.

I don't betcha.

Volker.Berlin | 28 august 2012

I just came across this Forbes article. I apologize if it's redundant, but I didn't see it posted anywhere here on the forums yet:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/08/20/tesla-motors-th...

Nothing terribly surprisingly new there, but it explains how the public sees Tesla and why the stock has been moving sideways recently.

mbcaffe | 28 august 2012
Theresa | 28 august 2012

mb, I doubt an article written after the fact caused the stock to go down. Check dateline on it. 8-27-2012 8:01 pm.

mbcaffe | 28 august 2012

teresa
sorry i should have mentioned that original article from Crains automotive came out on August 27, 2012 - 3:48 pm ET. Also, i said "may have". I really think markets are manipulated to a certain extent. tsla is up today on little news.

archibaldcrane | 28 august 2012

I believe TSLA dropped yesterday on news that GM may be temporarily shutting down their VOLT plant for a month, due to lack of demand.

Yeah that's kinda silly but the market sees EVs as interconnected.

Beaker | 28 august 2012

@archibaldcrane, It hasn't dawned on them that the base volt is just over $10,000 less than the base Model S with > 100 mile range, and that potential volt owners are pausing to look at the Model S.

I know my journey started with the Volt & Leaf, and the for $10,000 more I get get a "real car" argument. Of course a backed slowly into Signature #915. which is a whole lot more than a volt or leaf. :)

BYT | 28 august 2012

I don't like calling a Volt or a Fisker Karma an EV, they are Hybrids pure and simple and are marketing it as an EV very loosely!

archibaldcrane | 28 august 2012

Eh, they're EVs with abysmal range :)

TheAustin | 28 august 2012

I've been watching the Tesla stock for the better part of two years...Every time it dips near $25/share, it comes right back up again...I don't think it's going to go (significantly) lower that $25, and when/if it hits at/near $25, I'm going to stop watching and start buying for once.

DanielR | 29 august 2012

Elon was quoted late today that he expects a profit in 2013. Curious to see if that announcement will nudge the stock.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/08/29/tesla-motors-ceo-expects-firs...

KevinR.co.us | 29 august 2012

IMHO-- this may be the last opportunity for bargains on TSLA.

Nicu.Mihalache | 30 august 2012

With all the delays, we may have several weeks of "bargains" coming.

Nicu.Mihalache | 30 august 2012

BTW, I'm not bashing Tesla, I am actively averaging down on my calls. But we should be prepared to even deeper discounts, they are not out of question.

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