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Correcting public misperceptions about EVs

Correcting public misperceptions about EVs

AutoThink Research would like to invite ALL TESLA owners and drivers in the US and Canada to take our survey on electric vehicles at https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/SCD5CMQ. Public misperceptions and apprehensions about EVs are impeding the global transition to EVs. By taking the survey you'll be helping to educate the public. THANK YOU! Allen Bukoff, PhD, AutoThink Research

allen.bukoff | 22 januar 2019

Please post any comments or questions about the survey here. Thanks.

TeslaTap.com | 22 januar 2019

Appears to be a legit survey. No email required, but you can optionally provide it to get a copy of the survey results when they are done. It will be interesting to see the results!

mbirnie51 | 22 januar 2019

Just completed the survey.....I opted to get results. Like any "new" development, EVs will take time to get a footing. In reality, EVs are not new, in the late 1890s they were a lot of EVs on the road along with steamers, ICEs were the tiny segment of autos. Henery Ford's wife would only drive an EV, she refused to drive his cars.
Even if 80% of new vehicle sold are EVs, it will take 30 years to get rid of all ICEs. And the older they get, the more pollutants get dumped into the air. At some point, the government will have to do another $$ for clunkers.

TeslaTap.com | 22 januar 2019

@mbirnie - Actually an easy way to get rid of ICE is to just keep adding taxes onto gas. My guess is you could get rid of 50% ICE cars in 2 years if gas was $10 gallon and add a 100% purchase tax on ICE new cars like some countries do.

Might even create a nice market for EV conversions for those that are in love with there car's style or utility, but see the value of an EV.

Yodrak. | 22 januar 2019

"Actually an easy way to get rid of ICE is to just keep adding taxes onto gas. My guess is you could get rid of 50% ICE cars in 2 years if gas was $10 gallon and add a 100% purchase tax on ICE new cars like some countries do."

I'm not so sure. There are a lot of people who need a car but can't afford a new one and who would be devastated by such a gas tax. EVs are just too expensive for the near future to take over the market, even if the purchase tax you propose were to be implemented.

In your scenario, what is your expectation for the cost of used ICEVs, up or down?

TeslaTap.com | 22 januar 2019

@Yodrak - Very doubtful the approach I suggested would get implemented. In that scenario, I'd expect used ICE vehicles value would go way down, to the point it may be more valuable to crush and recover the metals to make an EV!

Keep in mind you get an older used EV like a leaf for a few thousand, although the value of used EVs would go up in this scenario.

The average new car price in the USA is around $35,000. Tesla expects to ship a $35,000 EV in the next few quarters, so even without incentives EVs could replace 1/2 the new cars in 2020 from a price perspective. There is a lot more to this (there are not EV variants to match every vehicle category yet). As other carmakers fill in the holes, I suspect by 2025, ICE sales will be in the minority with mostly antiques and rare collector cars.

Darthamerica | 22 januar 2019

@TeslaTap EV’s will remain a VERY small part of the market for the next decade and maybe longer. The taxes you propose are a perfect example of tyranny. It would get politicians immediately recalled. EVs aren’t yet cost competitive, they dont have the necessary infrastructure and they don’t offer the overall robustness and capability of ICE vehicles for now. It’s going to change for sure but not soon.

jimglas | 22 januar 2019

Do you consider subsidizing fossil fuels “tyranny”?

TeslaTap.com | 22 januar 2019

@Darh - you could be right (change not soon), but I hope not. Most countries are making the change, for a mix of reasons. While some consider the need for EVs for climate change or greeness, I look at EVs as just a far better solution for 95% of drivers today, price being the only issue holding back the tide.

EVs are already cost competitive with cars $>50K on base price alone, and competitive with cars > $40K when you add savings for fuel and oil changes. EVs have already proven to be far more robust than ICE vehicles, so that's a big plus to EVs. What will push the tide faster and faster is the public's perceived value of EVs over ICE. It's rare to see any segment or product increase 50-100% year after year. With all the other automakers finally seeing the light, the acceleration of EVs will grow even faster.

Interestingly, in the last 5 years (10 years?) you don't see a single new automobile company planning on making an ICE car. There must be dozens of new EV vehicle startups. They are the innovators that see the future. Then you add autonomous driving into the mix over the next few years and EVs make so much more sense.

Yodrak. | 22 januar 2019

"The average new car price in the USA is around $35,000. Tesla expects to ship a $35,000 EV in the next few quarters, so even without incentives EVs could replace 1/2 the new cars in 2020 from a price perspective."

You disappoint me - I'm sure you know the difference between average and median? My guess is that the median price of a new car is less than $35,000, the average price being higher because although fewer cars are sold above the average price, the price of those cars is higher above the average price than the price of the cars sold below the average is below the average price. Wish I could write that in a more understandable fashion, but it means my expectation is that less than half of the cars sold cost $35,000 or more.

Let me try again - what's the lowest price for a new car? $15,000? That's $20,00 less than the average. Cars $20,000 above the average price cost $55,000, can exceed $100,00, and quite a few cars are sold in that price range.

Too bad the industry does not provide a median price so we could know if I'm right or wrong.

jordanrichard | 22 januar 2019

“Average price is around $35,000” is often cited but it is seriously misleading because a leased car and more importantly it’s price is considered a sale. In other words, in theory if 90% of cars leased had $100,000 , the avg sale price would be much, much higher than $35K

Yodrak. | 22 januar 2019

"... if 90% of cars leased had $100,000 ... "

Please rephrase or expand on that. Thanks.