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Pre- ordered mine today anyone good at statistics?

Pre- ordered mine today anyone good at statistics?

So I put my deposit today ( I know late to the game) but I have no problem waiting as my car now is fine. How many of the deposits you think will drop off let's say within a year and a half? I know it's way over 300k reservations right now but 2 plus years, people I'm sure will fall off? Your thoughts fellow Tesla lovers...

Red Sage ca us | 13 april 2016

However many drop off will no doubt be replaced by at least as many hangers on...

vp09 | 13 april 2016

I teach stats, but would have little towards guessing on this one. I know I might drop off, because I'll probably buy a second Model S instead!

brian | 13 april 2016

Last I heard there were 325,000 reservations. I predict 324,999 cancellations, which will mean I am first in line :-)

Haggy | 13 april 2016

Being good at statistics means having meaningful data and understanding whether the results have any relevance. If you want a guess, don't look for somebody good at statistics.

vp09 | 13 april 2016

Haggy, +1 on that. Or >.

dd.micsol | 14 april 2016

mean median mode std deviation-
+1 to Haggy
Perhaps you mean someone who has great logistics?
That would make more sense.

nelscharli1970 | 14 april 2016

I think we'll see the biggest drop off when the Federal tax incentive runs out.
Until then, hard to say. Everyone has different personal reasons for staying on or dropping off.

dsvick | 14 april 2016

You don't need stats, you need a magic 8 ball :)

I would expect that most of the people that were in the first 115,000 to 200,000 knew full well what they were doing and the potential wait time they were looking at. For them the only drops you'll get will be due to changes in their situation: got raise so they can get an MS, got fired so they need their $ back, their current car dies and they need to replace it sooner, ... Those should be fairly scarce.

jsrawa | 14 april 2016

I agree, this has little to do with statistics. Like others I bet the first 100,000 will have a lower drop out rate than the next 100,000 and then the next after that and so on. The first 100,000 if I were to GUESS may see a 70% retention rate, the next at 65% and so on but who knows. Two years is a long wait and we live in a world where people love instant gratification, we may see many drop out if they can't ramp up fast enough.

bj | 14 april 2016

@nelscharli1970 - what proportion of Tesla's sales are in USA? I get that probably the majority of posters here are from the USA where the tax incentive debate seems to arouse intense passion, but don't forget that in many if not most countries Tesla sells into outside the USA, there ARE NO TAX INCENTIVES. So for us, it's irrelevant.

So if 50% of Tesla sales are into USA, and 50% of those sales are go/no go purely on the basis of USA tax incentives, then only 25% of all Tesla's global sales are at risk purely because of that issue. But I suspect it will be much, much lower than that.

MarlonBrown | 14 april 2016

I suspect 30% of those folks ordering are expecting an extension of the tax incentives, which it may not happen. Pure gamble. Yes they would drop once they see the reality. Lets sat if Tesla manages to produce 100K/year, then other folks also get tired and buy another car available then (leaf, bolt once they drop their prices to mid $20k).

junehhan | 14 april 2016

You guys have hit the points I see. However we will have to wait and see. For most of it, it will be at least 2 years before we get our chance in the queue based on realistic circumstances. I also think some will quit when they realize that most of us probably won't get that nice tax break. I also think MANY will quit when we realize that Tesla is probably going to be taking a page out of the Ford/Porsche book of pricing options on a vehicle as they need high margin extras to recoup the losses. Tesla says the average price will be around $42k, but I believe the analysts who are predicting $50k or more to get the options you want sounds about right. I also believe some will drop because they are going to see the interior and realize that it is way more plain than they anticipated.

georgehawley.fl.us | 14 april 2016

I'm only good at statistics on the average.

Red Sage ca us | 14 april 2016

The Model X will be matching the Model S by the end of Q2 at ~1,000 units per week. I figure 40% of Model S will go to US Customers going forward... While 60% of Model X are for US buyers. So, I expect on the order of 75,000 Deliveries of Generation II vehicles will have been made to US Customers between July 2016 and December 2017. Very few buyers of Model ☰ will qualify for the full $7,500 Federal Tax Credit, if any at all.

With the current Reservations alone, Tesla Motors will be led to have a very streamlined ordering process. That will facilitate filling those orders at a fast pace. There will be very few individual options offered, beyond materials and colors. Most features will be included within options packages instead of being listed a la carte. I expect there will only be three main trim levels: Base, Dual Motor All Wheel Drive, and Performance AWD. Combined with only two battery pack capacities, you'll likely only be able to add around $15,000 in options to either trim level. So, no... It won't be like customizing a Porsche at all.

diegoPasadena | 14 april 2016

I'm not at all convinced that the end of the incentive will necessarily cause many cancellations. What would those buyers go to? Unless there is an equally compelling EV alternative that costs less, they may very well stay. I can't see someone jumping ship for a Bolt. Those people have already proven that *this* is what they want. Also: The tax incentive does not apply to the full extent to everyone in the Model 3 buying class. Some may only see a couple of thousand dollars difference, and that would make staying with Tesla that much more attractive.
I think the bulk of the 350,000 or 400,000 reservation holders have been adjusting their buying behavior well ahead in anticipation of the Model 3 announcement and have made sure they have perfectly usable cars that will serve them for a good two or three years more. They're well-prepared for the wait.
One thing's for sure: They're lost to everyone else as potential buyers unless and until they charge their mind. BMW sold about 113,000 Series 3 and 4 cars in the US in 2015. My guess is that they will feel this drain in their customer pool.

doctoxics | 14 april 2016

Model 3 is the best choice, so no one drops out unless for financial reasons.

georgehawley.fl.us | 14 april 2016

@RedSage: check your arithmetic. 800 MX a week would be sensational, never mind 1000. Plus 1000 MS/ week. Start end of March, 2016. Say 1000 vehicles per week to the U.S. over 91 weeks plus maybe 60,000 MS delivered through 1Q2016. Total=151,000. That means 49,000 more deliveries needed in 2018 to trigger the phase out. But the phase out doesn't begin for another 2 quarters. If they deliver, 2,000 cars a week in the U.S. beginning Jan. 1 2018, they don't hit 200,000 until late 2Q2018. That means $7500 for every car delivered in 2018 including M≡.

jordanrichard | 14 april 2016

It is not exactly an apples to apples comparison of the MS/MX to the M≡. The M≡ has been/is being design for simplicity of manufacturer. Simpler interior, 1 screen, no headliner, no automated door handles, no auto powered hatch etc.

Red Sage ca us | 14 april 2016

President georgehawley: Credit Suisse recently upgraded TSLA saying any concerns about Model X were null and void. The last two weeks of Q1 2016 Tesla Motors had reached 750 units per week of Model X Production. That is within the boundaries of Tesla's Guidance for between 700 and 800 units per week during Q2 2016. Thus, they are on track to reach 1,000 units per week for Model X by the end of Q2 2016.

Per GoodCarBadCar the Model S reached 2,558 US Customers in 2012, 18,195 in 2013, 16,550 in 2014, and 26,400 in 2015. So far in 2015, they estimate 6,600 Delivered through March 2016 to US Customers. That is 70,300 US Customers for the Model S so far. They show 2,908 Model X Delivered here so far. So the US total for Delivery of Generation II vehicles is 73,208 thus far.

No one can claim the Federal Tax Credit until they take Delivery of the vehicles, that is true. But I believe the 'counter' that the IRS uses is based upon when the vehicles are BUILT, not when they are taken possession of by an end user. Every manufacturer sends the IRS a list of the VINs that qualify for consideration under the program. That is why someone filing taxes for the benefit must include the VIN of their specific vehicle. Because the car might have been built in one Quarter, but reached the end user in another.

Please note that I expect the Model X will be more popular in the US than other territories. So, while shipments of the Model S may range between 40%-to-50% Production going to US Customers... The Model X will likely have no less than 60% of its Production be Delivered here in the US. So, for every 1,000 of Model S, at least 400 go to US hands, and for every 1,000 of Model X, there will be 600 happy US Customers. Combined that comes to 1,000 potential Deliveries per week on US shores.

So if 25,000 people receive their Generation II cars during the second half of 2016... And another 50,000 people get them during all of 2017... Then 75,000 more US Customers will get cars that qualify for the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit during the period of July 2016 through December 2017. Thus, 148,208+ US Customers by the time the Model ☰ is released. And that is my most pessimistic outlook.

Not very many Model ☰ will have reached US owners by the time Tesla Motors reaches the 200,000 unit mark. I understand there is a sort of 'grace period' that follows that marker over the course of two calendar quarters. So, yes, all those cars would also receive the full benefit. But unless Production of Model ☰ grew to a very high rate in very short order, many of those who are hopeful Reservation holders today would be left with a reduced benefit instead of the full amount.

Currently, I hope that Tesla Motors can begin Model ☰ Production as close to 4,000 units per week, and ramp up to 6,000 or 8,000 per week within six-to-nine months thereafter.

dsvick | 15 april 2016

@georgehawley
...they don't hit 200,000 until late 2Q2018. That means $7500 for every car delivered in 2018 including M≡
The phase out begins after the second quarter after they sell the 200,000th car. So if 200,000 was late in Q2, the full $7,500 would only remain in effect until the end of Q3. However, they've already hinted that might game the system and hold those last few deliveries so that number 200,000 isn't delivered until early in a quarter so you'd get the rest of that quarter then the entire next.

@Red Sage
I believe the 'counter' that the IRS uses is based upon when the vehicles are BUILT, not when they are taken possession
According to the IRS it is when the title is transfered A vehicle is not “acquired” before the date on which title to that vehicle passes under state law
Section 4, Para 7 here: ok, not here stupid mollom. Google "IRS 2009-48_IRB", it's the first link.

slasher0016 | 15 april 2016

My question is, how will WE know as taxpayers which one we qualify for? Are we supposed to guess?

Red Sage ca us | 15 april 2016

dsvick: Yeah. That is the tricky part. Traditional automobile manufacturers 'sell' a car to the 'independent franchised dealerships' the instant it leaves the factory on a cast carrier. The only transfer of ownership for Tesla Motors vehicles is when the buyer takes possession of it.

slasher016: It's... murky. The IRS does keep track of totals, though it looks weird... This list only shows Ford and Mercedes-Benz cars for some reason...

Google: IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales

Haggy | 15 april 2016

Tesla will know when they are going to hit that number and will have to let people know. Since it goes by quarter, it won't matter if you buy it before or after anybody else who buys it in the same quarter. And the full incentive will be there the next quarter, so it's not as if there won't be lead time.

The only way the IRS can keep track of this is by going by what Tesla tells them. They can't count it up on their own because not all US buyers will be qualified. Then again, some unqualified customers might lease and then buy it out in the end, which would still save money.

Red Sage ca us | 15 april 2016

Haggy: I believe that with a lease the vehicle is 'bought' by the Leasing Agency. So they get the Federal Tax Benefit, even if the Driver purchases the vehicle for Residual Value at the End of Lease.

georgehawley.fl.us | 15 april 2016

Oh hell, maybe they'll change the law by 2018.

Haggy | 16 april 2016

Red,

Yes, that's my understanding too. It will effectively bring down the lease payments and the residual value since the tax credit would get factored in. Hopefully the terms are favorable for people and give them a fixed buyout value that's guaranteed. If it's worth less, the price would have to come down or they could buy it elsewhere. But if tax credits are exhausted by the time the lease is up, FMV for used ones might be higher.