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Model 3- Fully Autonomous?!?

Model 3- Fully Autonomous?!?

So throughout the few months that I've been anxiously waiting for my Model 3, I have followed Tesla's and Elon Musks's every move. I have watched every video, interview, read every tweet, and every article out there. Throughout this time, it has been made blatantly clear to me that the Model 3 will be fully autonomous. When I say fully autonomous, I define it the same way Elon Musk does: basically being able to Summon your car anywhere at any time. In other words, the Model 3 can be completely unoccupied and still get from point A to point B safely. According to the NHTSA, "Full Self-Driving Automation (Level 4): The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles."

Elon Musk tweeted this week about 1 billion miles of data being a necessity. My assumption (only because I haven't done any research on it) is that he was referring to NHTSA's requirements. Elon Musk tweeted "With less than 1B miles, there simply isn't enough data. 1B is a necessary but not necessarily sufficient condition." For the time it will take to gather 1B miles of data he responded, "Probably six months. Will include hundreds of refinements to handle rare corner cases in Autopilot." This makes me that much more certain, because he will have another 9-12 months after the end of this year before deliveries begin, to perfect the software and the autonomous features.

During a Recode interview this year, the interviewer asked if the Model 3 would be autonomous, and his answer was "um, I have a... I'm gonna do another Tesla event maybe at the end of the year to talk more about that. It will be real big news if I start here. Let me just say that we're gonna do the obvious thing. Really obvious."

Plus he always says and has tweeted, Tesla never anticipated this many reservations before Part 2 of the release. And that Part 2 will be even more amazing than Part 1.
If you really think about it, why would he release a car to the MASSES and not have it be fully autonomous.

I was and still am 100% certain that the Model 3 will be fully autonomous, which honestly, was the reason I ordered one pre-unveil to begin with.

I really want to know what everyone thinks about this, even though I am 100% certain.

Check out my Tesla IG: @everything_tesla

grashelm | 13 juli 2016

No. It won't be fully autonomous.

scarface | 13 juli 2016

I think it will have the hardware ready but not activated.
It might even have the option to choose between the actual autopilot and a fully autonomous version for extra money.

Haggy | 13 juli 2016

Even if the hardware is capable, I wouldn't expect Tesla to say it's autonomous or for the software to be at that level. And I have no reason to think that the hardware will necessarily be there.

cheleball | 13 juli 2016

I am 100% certain that Tesla is working on full autonomy. I'm sure Elon Musk believes it will be ready in time for the Model 3. Elon Musk seems to be that rarest of birds, an eternal optimist. He almost always thinks things will be ready before they actually are.

His companies also have tremendous track records of realizing all their goals...eventually. I have no doubt that a future Tesla will be fully autonomous. I'm tremendously skeptical that they can get it sorted in time for the Model 3 to release. I mean, not to be harsh or anything, but they couldn't even get a door to work properly in time for the Model X to release. This problem is orders of magnitude more complex.

Musk has also said that Tesla learned humility from the Model X, and that they wouldn't let hubris get in the way of the Model 3's release date. Simplicity needs to be the order of the day.

scarface | 13 juli 2016

I cannot believe that M3 wil lnot have the hardware ready. If these cars will be on the road for 8+ years and only the next generation (in 2-3 years) will be fully autonomous, the first M3 cars will really have no market value in 5+ years.
IF that's the case, I will wait and cancel my reservation until a fully autonomous car that will not lost all its value over 2-3 years...

JeffreyR | 13 juli 2016

Another Elon quote (paraphrased from recent video I watched), "The Model S/X will always be the technology leader for Tesla." His reason is that it's much easier to figure things out on a more expensive, low-volume car. So it follows that any new autonomous driving/Autopilot hardware will come out on the Model S and Model X first. The good news is that you will know what is possible on the Model ≡ before you need to convert your reservation. The bad news is that the first phase may not be as capable in the Model ≡. Since OTA Updates can improve Autopilot now, I am sure they will continue to do so.

So, don't give up if Autopilot 2.0 does not live up to your expectations.

Badbot | 13 juli 2016

The time between now and production 3s being delivered will allow the S/X to have AP L4 first.
But the other thing is the government setting up the Antonymous Laws and insurance covering the cars able to do it.
The government has the record for missed dates ! Elon expects them to take a year to do that. But being a optimist about the government will insure disappointment in most cases.
I am hoping for everything to work out so that I can have AP L4 in about two years, my guess at delivery date for my 3.

dd.micsol | 13 juli 2016

Not interested in fully Auto for another 10 yrs. It's still an infant.

bb0tin | 13 juli 2016

@dd.micsol
I haven't been able to find any information about the state of Tesla's fully autonomous systems.
Would you post links to your information please.

EaglesPDX | 13 juli 2016

Tesla 3 will certainly not be "fully autonomous". I doubt that is legal in the US or capable of getting required auto insurance.

wrightmikeb | 13 juli 2016

I think 2020 model s and x might be. Not model 3 this soon.

bb0tin | 13 juli 2016

@EaglesPDX
You said "Tesla 3 will certainly not be "fully autonomous""
I haven't been able to find any information about the state of Tesla's fully autonomous systems.
Would you post links to your information please.

up north | 13 juli 2016

There will not be a better car for 35000. Who said that?

tommyalexandersb | 13 juli 2016

I'm just like you, I've read every tweet, and artical and watched every video out there, listened to the Q and A's etc. I completely agree that it will 100% for sure be fully autonomous capable. I don't think it will be legal for a while though, so I doubt it will be activated from the start of deliveries.

A fair amount of people don't think it will be fully autonomous. But I doubt they've researched the topic and followed tesla as much and as closely as you and me. If anyone reading this has watched every video and read every artical and tweet etc over the past year, and you still doubt the model 3 will not be fully autonomous capable, please comment and explain how you interpreted Elons words in any other way. Thanks for this thread @chris... ! And to future responders.

grashelm | 13 juli 2016

@bb0tin
You said "I haven't been able to find any information about the state of Tesla's fully autonomous systems.
Would you post links to your information please."

No. The initial model 3 won't be fully autonomous.

Feel free to link to this post. There's your information.

bb0tin | 13 juli 2016

@grashelm
That was not information about the state of Tesla's fully autonomous systems.
It is only your ignorant opinion.
Email me privately at bob.naughtin@gmail.com if you would like to make some money standing behind your certainty.

chrisamirkhanian | 13 juli 2016

So I'm trying to write a a long post for you guys with links and what not and am unable to.

I get this message: "Your submission has triggered the spam filter and will not be accepted. If you feel this is in error, please report that you are blocked."

Anyone know why?

grashelm | 13 juli 2016

@bb0tin

I have no interest in making money behind the certainty of my opinion. Rather I look forward to preparing the crow that you will surely eat when my "ignorant opinion" dazzles all with it's uncanny accuracy.

bb0tin | 13 juli 2016

@grashelm
Why not?
Surely winning thousands of dollars would add a cherry on top...unless you really are not that certain.

cheleball | 13 juli 2016

@tommyalexandersb

I haven't been quite as obsessive as all that, but I have followed things pretty closely since I placed my reservation in April. My post above is my interpretation. I remember Elon saying in an interview when challenged on his truthfulness that his answer represents reality as he sees it, but he fully acknowledged that he is often over optimistic.

Tesla is obviously working on autonomous technology. So are a lot of other companies. All of them have made significant strides, and none of them thinks they'll be finished in 2 years. I have seen nothing that indicates that Tesla is so far ahead, so I very much doubt we'll see full level 4 autonomy in the model 3. I could believe level 3, but not 4.

For reference, my Mazda with its adaptive cruise is level 1, and current Tesla auto pilot is level 2.

bb0tin | 13 juli 2016

@cheleball
You said "and none of them thinks they'll be finished in 2 years"
Both Audi and Google have said so. Other have said before 2020.
http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=384

dsvick | 14 juli 2016

I'll keep my curretn reservation and be happy to get it as soon as I can. People that want to cancel their's in order to get the "final version" will just end up waiting forever. I agree with everyone that the M3 will have the auto-pilot hardware, Elon has already said so, it might even have the hardware it will need to be fully autonomous. The reason I say might is that the hardware required will almost certainly change as more data is collected and the software is revised and rewritten. They may find they need a different sort of sensor in one place or additional ones added in other places.

Like all technology it will constantly evolve, those that are early adopters get the cutting edge technology and software ... that will be obsolete sooner rather than later. Probably a bit later when it comes to cars as opposed to phones and tablets.

topher | 14 juli 2016

"I was and still am 100% certain that the Model 3 will be fully autonomous, "

You should probably re-calibrate your priors and likelihoods. Elon, the guy who knows more than almost anyone doesn't claim 100% certainty, and he is a huge optimist. If he isn't, you, who are getting your info from him, can't possibly be.

Thank you kindly.

PhillyGal | 14 juli 2016

The spam trigger is wonky. Just re-write your post changing one word at a time. If it was long, just post half at a time and see.

tommyalexandersb | 14 juli 2016

@cheleball tesla said they thought they were two years away from fully autonomous vehicles. That was at the start of 2016, which would put it on track for the model 3. I don't have time to look up the exact quote.

Also I'm still waiting to hear from anyone who has done as much research as me or the creater of this thread to explain if, how, and why they would think the model 3 will not have the capability of being fully autonomous. (Again, this almost for sure won't be activated until a later date then the first deliveries. Probably a year or more after that)

Haggy | 14 juli 2016

In order for a car to be fully autonomous using the lexical definition of the word, the car would have to decide on its own where it wants to go. With technical definitions, there's a lot of space between level 3 and level 4. Tesla is at level 2 and arguably at level 3, since the driver can fully cede control (but not responsibility) under certain conditions. It's knowing when those conditions are no longer in effect that matters.

But there are many things in between level 3 and 4 that could appear independently. For example, the car could announce stop signs and traffic lights but expect the user to stop at them. It could stop at them, but expect the user to tap the accelerator to resume from a stop sign. It could make automatic turns at intersections when the driver signals a turn ahead of time. It could prompt the driver to signal based on feedback from the navigator. It could drive an entire route based on the navigator.

Each of those could be a progressive step. With the Model S in particular, if the car wants to get over to the left lane, it makes more sense for the car to tell the driver to check blind spots and signal when it's safe to do so. I don't see why Tesla would have to wait until all of these things can be done, since they will be worked on independently. There's no reason that the group that does the programming for traffic lights needs to wait until the stop sign group is ready. I think Tesla will introduce more and more features over time, but it will come down to whether the hardware is theoretically capable of full autonomy that will dictate how far Tesla will take it with any model.

Unless a car can monitor cross traffic to the point that it can see a car on a cross street that's 400 meters away, and estimate its speed, then it won't be able to tell you to resume from a stop sign without you being the judge of whether it's safe. If it can't see what's in adjacent lanes approaching from a distance at a high speed, it can't decide that lane changes are safe. If you are going from lane three into lane two, and a driver in lane one decides to go into lane two after you signal, and would end up in your blind spot, how should the car react? A human might look at that vehicle and predict that it's the type of driver who won't give a damn that you are about to change lanes. A car will assume that people will play by the rules. Having a mix of autonomous and manual vehicles on the road is far from simple.

All these things require hardware that Tesla doesn't currently put in cars, and chances are that by the time the Model 3 comes out, Tesla will upgrade the hardware in the Model S and X. There's no reason for them to introduce it as a new feature in the Model 3 since people aren't expecting it, unless of course they charge a lot of money for the option. Even at that, there are options that manufacturers typically offer only in their top models.

bb0tin | 14 juli 2016

@dsvick
You said "The reason I say might is that the hardware required will almost certainly change as more data is collected and the software is revised and rewritten. They may find they need a different sort of sensor in one place or additional ones added in other places."
Why? The required hardware has been known for years. MobilEye have quoted what the hardware requirements are for their next chip.

bb0tin | 14 juli 2016

@Haggy
The requirements that you specify have already been met.
Read up about Google for instance, since they have made lots of information public.
Or you could just read the link I posted.

topher | 14 juli 2016

"MobilEye have quoted what the hardware requirements are for their next chip."

Since MobilEye aren't claiming that chip is sufficient for fully autonomous driving, who cares?

Thank you kindly.

bb0tin | 14 juli 2016

@topher
You said "Since MobilEye aren't claiming that chip is sufficient for fully autonomous driving, who cares?"
Yes they have, as even a 1 minute google search would show.
Care to make a bet that you are wrong?
Email me at bob.naughtin@gmail.com

PS: Why can posters not bother to spend the minimal amount of effort required to verify their opinions before posting?

chrisamirkhanian | 14 juli 2016

So frustrating! I have a long response for everyone and I can't post it because I get a stupid spam error notification thing.

bb0tin | 14 juli 2016

@chrisamirkhanian
You have my sympathies.
Try these:
Reload the page before posting
Remove all semicolons
Change .com etc to DOT com
Remove quotes within quotes
Remove any word which could be considered defamatory etc

Tstolz | 14 juli 2016

It's been implied that the hardware will be in place (albeit this is not certain) ... and that the software and legal issues will likely take longer.

dsvick | 15 juli 2016

@bb0tin - "The required hardware has been known for years. MobilEye have quoted what the hardware requirements are for their next chip"
If the software isn't completed then the hardware cannot be set in stone either. The hardware they use now is not the same as the hardware that they started with. I'm not talking about advances in technology but in the types/amounts/locations of hardware needed to do what needs to be done to have fully autonomous cars.

As the software is developed there is every chance that, at some point, the developers are going to say "Hey, we need to know this piece of information in order to be able to make this decision correctly", and if the required piece of information is not available from the current hardware then something else will be required. Either an additional piece or a different type.

jschnyderite | 15 juli 2016

could the model 3 have hardware capable of drving point A to point B?..possibly
will it be ready for use at launch?...highly unlikely
will legislation be in place to allow it?...no way in hell

if you buy the model 3, i wouldn't count out ever having it able to drive without your hands on the wheel or the driver at full attention, but i think summoning it more than a couple hundred yards away is not in the cards for this coming generation of teslas.

jordanrichard | 15 juli 2016

The automobile is the most regulated consumer product on the planet. Technologically speaking, you can get rid of the outside rearview mirrors and steering wheel. However, legally you can't.

There are so many issues that need to be resolved/legislated before your car can drop you off at the air port and return itself home.

bb0tin | 15 juli 2016

@dsvick
You said "If the software isn't completed then the hardware cannot be set in stone either. " etc
This is not true. It is the exact situation which has been happening with the current autopilot.

You said "As the software is developed there is every chance that..."
Fully autonomous cars have been in development for many years. The sensor requirements are well known. The hardware for processing that information, and the software it runs, is what is changing. There are exceptions, such as the move to solid state lidar, but the sensors installed today are providing fully autonomous driving such as in the Google cars.
Fully autonomous driving will be introduced on the S/X first. They will be the initial guinea pigs, not the Model 3.

bb0tin | 15 juli 2016

@jschnyderite
You said "will it be ready for use at launch?...highly unlikely"
What is your evidence, or reasoning, for this statement?
Please research systems like the Google cars before replying.

You said "if you buy the model 3, i wouldn't count out ever having it able to drive without your hands on the wheel or the driver at full attention, but i think summoning it more than a couple hundred yards away is not in the cards for this coming generation of teslas."
That implies that when Tesla announce that the Model 3 will be capable of fully autonomous driving, everyone will need to refuse not purchase the system.

bb0tin | 15 juli 2016

@jordanrichard
You said "There are so many issues that need to be resolved/legislated before your car can drop you off at the air port and return itself home."
Once Tesla have statistically shown that full autonomy is much safer than human driving, there will be strong pushes from multiple factions to make it legal. This will happen within a year or two after launching the systems.
The populace will want to reduce the number of deaths, and have a safer car for themselves.
Politicians will not want to be responsible for preventable deaths.
Insurance companies, and customers, will want lower premiums.
'Taxi' companies will be pushing for it.
Those who cannot drive, the disabled, blind and aged/infirm will be pushing for it.

Haggy | 15 juli 2016

It's not a question of which chip can handle it. Tesla simply hasn't announced whether they will have rear facing radar or multiple cameras or lidar or anything specific that will give data to whatever chip they use. Until then we have no idea whether the hardware can handle it.

bb0tin | 15 juli 2016

@Haggy
Whether Tesla has announced the hardware or not, and they haven't, has absolutely no relevance on whether the required hardware can be known now, or not.
In general, what we, or you know, has no bearing on reality.

Haggy | 16 juli 2016

You said the requirements have been met. In simple terms, they have not because no Tesla vehicle has that sort of hardware, nor has Tesla announced any plans for such hardware. It's also almost unheard of in the auto industry for the lowest end car to have all the technical features of the highest end car. What makes autopilot practical for the Model 3 is that a certain level of hardware is needed for the safety features, and certain active safety features are required in some countries. The software has been developed and will continue to be developed for other vehicles. Tesla is far less likely to add additional hardware to the Model 3 because it would serve no purpose without an upgrade.

Drdpharris | 16 juli 2016

My money is on next gen hardware in S/X and then 3. If we are lucky MobilEye 5. Possibly not sufficient for autonomy, but most of the way there.

bb0tin | 16 juli 2016

@Haggy
You said "You said the requirements have been met."
No I did not. I said Tesla will already know what hardware is required. That does not mean that they have chosen it

You said "they have not because no Tesla vehicle has that sort of hardware, nor has Tesla announced any plans for such hardware."
We are talking about the future, not the past or present.

You said "Tesla is far less likely to add additional hardware to the Model 3 because it would serve no purpose without an upgrade."
This makes no sense at all.

jpambian | 16 juli 2016

I appreciate and share everyone's passionate interest and anticipation. It is going to be very interesting to watch how all of this plays out. For myself, I have read the tweets, articles and tea leaves and while I have opinions and hopes, I don't have any certainty. But isn't it fun!? :)

tommyalexandersb | 16 juli 2016

@jpambian I like your style!

@haggy tesla has announced plans for that hardware and software. They said they thought they were about 2 years away from fully autonomous vehicles at the beginning of this year, they just haven't specified for what vehicles. Also, the whole point of having the s and x was to raise funds to build a car for the masses, so there's no reason for them not to have the cool features in the car, it just might be a lot more than the base price.

@everyone it's all speculation anyways so no need to nit pick other's comments. I respect all your opinions and enjoy the discussion. I mean no offense when responding to others comments, but I sense that some comments are not coming from a friendly place. Let's all just remember that we have different opinions and this is just a place to discuss them.

chrisamirkhanian | 17 juli 2016

@bb0tin
You said "Once Tesla have statistically shown that full autonomy is much safer than human driving, there will be strong pushes from multiple factions to make it legal. This will happen within a year or two after launching the systems..."
COULDN'T AGREE MORE.

@tommyalexandersb
You said"They said they thought they were about 2 years away from fully autonomous vehicles at the beginning of this year, they just haven't specified for what vehicles. Also, the whole point of having the s and x was to raise funds to build a car for the masses, so there's no reason for them not to have the cool features in the car, it just might be a lot more than the base price."
EXACTLY. It will definitely be ready to use, with the hardware on the Model 3. It just may be for $5,000 option instead of the current $2,500 autopilot option (for example).

Why would Elon say I have a party to talk more about it (autonomous capabilities) being on the Model 3 and that if I say anything now it'll be way too big of a news?

He couldn't be more clear indirectly about it.

chrisamirkhanian | 17 juli 2016

Elon Musk has said full autonomy can be accomplished with just a forward facing radar, cameras, and radars surrounding the car to detect nearby objects. That is basically the hardware that is in the current S/Xs. Even though it's the regulation process that may delay the process, Elon has said himself that it would only take a year (2 at most) after developing the autonomous capabilities for regulators to accept it. This is because "Once Tesla have statistically shown that full autonomy is much safer than human driving, there will be strong pushes from multiple factions to make it legal. This will happen within a year or two after launching the systems.
The populace will want to reduce the number of deaths, and have a safer car for themselves.
Politicians will not want to be responsible for preventable deaths.
Insurance companies, and customers, will want lower premiums.
'Taxi' companies will be pushing for it.
Those who cannot drive, the disabled, blind and aged/infirm will be pushing for it." Just as @bb0tin said it.

chrisamirkhanian | 17 juli 2016

@tommyalexandersb happy to find someone as certain and interested as myself! As for everyone else, I completely see where your thoughts are headed, but respectfully disagree. Like @tommyalexandersb said, if you watch and read everything out there, it becomes really obvious. Even Elon said they're gonna do the obvious when asked about it in the interview below!

Musk has said in several interviews that fully autonomous capabilities are pretty much already a solved problem. He has mentioned a few times that the hardest scenario to write software for is the 10-30 mph residential areas where a kid can come running out in front of the car. He has even stated that autonomy in congested countries with no road markings are a solved problem as well.

Here is the video that he talks about autonomous capabilities. Although he doesn't directly state that the Model 3 will have it, he practically gives it away with body language and word choice when he is asked about it in the interview.

Skip to 39.20

www.youtuDOTBE/wsixsRI-Sz4 (Sorry I tried to post this on the main thread, but didn't let me so I deleted the link. Hopefully it works this time around!)

chrisamirkhanian | 17 juli 2016

That's Part 1 ↑

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