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Timeline to fulfill Model 3 reservations?

Timeline to fulfill Model 3 reservations?

Okay, lets assume a couple of things.
1. Let's assume using traditional production assemble methods, not the 5-10X improvement that Elon has mentioned.
2. Suppliers and battery production will be able to keep up with Tesla's Model 3 demand.
3. Tesla has a history of missing dates, and production targets.

So, given their history, what would be a reasonable timeline assumption on Tesla fulfilling the nearly 400,000 reservations?
I'm thinking 10,000-20,000 in 2017
125,000 in 2018
190,000 in 2019 (50% increase from previous year)
initial pre production reservations fulfilled sometime in 2020

Your thoughts?

JeffreyR | 31 august 2016

Don't be so negative.

The reason that Elon is pushing his vendors so publicly is because he wants them to stretch too. He has also publicly stated he will build what he cannot buy. So if you are a vendor, now is your time to step up and shine.

CapEx and Cash Flow are the big concerns, not their history of making new cars from scratch. They are not doing much that is novel/new for the Model ≡. The all-glass roof is actually easier to install than other options. Dropping the second, driver-focused dash is easier.

What will be interesting is if they start building all of the production lines in parallel or if they build one (or a couple), perfect it, then build the rest.

David N | 1 september 2016

Sorry, didn't mean to come across that way. Just thinking realistically.

dd.micsol | 1 september 2016

@Dave-Remember Elon is saying model 3 will be the simple to build. No complexity at all to save time in production. Limiters will be parts/vendors. Not worried about speed of production robots at all.

bmalloy0 | 1 september 2016

EM said that if you want your M3 in 2018, you should reserve "soon." This was a few months ago, so who knows what it's like now, but I'm tempted to believe the man.

My guess is next year Q2 and Q3 sales will stagnate/drop as expansion is focused on making M3 lines. Then when the M3 is finally released, it'll come out swinging; 50k Model 3s is probaby a little too optimistic for Q4 shipments, but 40k is probably doable. Another 90k in Q1/Q2 2018, 150k Q3/Q4 would put it at 280k total by the end of 2018. With a little fire under their butts, and increased shipping numbers, they might be able to ramp faster, but I'm going to guess early-mid Q2 2019 as worst-case.

Mailrail707 | 1 september 2016

I'm a late reserver. There's no way I'll be able to wait until 2020. But I expect a lot of folks who have made reservations will not have the patience or finances to see it through so I hope to steadily move up in the queue.

rockyouever | 1 september 2016

@Mailrail707. +100.

jsl6v8 | 1 september 2016

I reserved the first hour of store openings but I don't imagine Ill have mine til the middle of 2018, and who knows how the order will work out with previous owners getting a preference and them going from east coast to west. And how far does that previous owner preference go, does a current S owner who orders today get his 3 before me who ordered the first day, in the first hours?

dsvick | 2 september 2016

@Mailrail707 - "I'm a late reserver. There's no way I'll be able to wait until 2020."

You shouldn't have, the new target for production is 100 - 200,000 in 2017 and then 500,000 (combined) for 2018, even if those are wildly optimistic and they only hit half of those number, you should still be looking at 2019 sometime.

dsvick | 2 september 2016

@jsl6v8 - "who knows how the order will work out with previous owners getting a preference and them going from east coast to west. And how far does that previous owner preference go, does a current S owner who orders today get his 3 before me who ordered the first day, in the first hours?"

No one knows the answer to those questions. Except that initial propduction will go from West to East not the other way around. Other than that no one knows for sure, all we have is conjecture, speculation, wild rumors, and flat out lies - isn't this fun :)

topher | 2 september 2016

If I were Tesla, I would be planning to make my 200,000 US delivery on January 1 2018. This would allow the tax credit to decline at the same time as full production was coming on line. My reading is that they want to be up to a rate of 500,000 cars per year, by the end of 2018, which (if linear) gives about 250,000 cars in 2018. And fulfillment of all (current) pre-orders around Q2 2019. All speculation.

Anyone who expects Elon Musk to make the SAME mistakes as previously is going to be disappointed. I think he tends to be optimistic about (lack of) future mistakes, but he never makes the same one twice.

Thank you kindly.

Mailrail707 | 2 september 2016

@topher - Agreed. I have to laugh at Car & Driver or whoever it was who had the complicated formula predicting how late the M3 would be, based on the other delays in past models. Do they honestly think EM wouldn't have learned something from the other delays and use it to streamline the production of the M3?

Red Sage ca us | 7 september 2016

Mailrail707: Yes. Naysayers are honestly stupid. Every bit as stupid as they appear to be. Really.

houstonviper1 | 7 september 2016

Reserved mine the first day and stood in line at the gallery, so hopefully I'm one of the first waves :)

carlos | 7 september 2016

Most won't see their cars till 2019. Some will see their cars by the end of 2018, Virtually none will see a Model 3 in 2017.

tommyalexandersb | 7 september 2016

@carlos do you think Elon is just going to be flat out wrong or have you not been paying attention? He said 100-200K model 3 deliveries in 2017, and around 350K in 2018. So unless 1,000,000 more people reserved already, if you believe Elon might pull it off, everyone would get theirs before 2019. If you just don't think he will even come close to pulling off what he claims tesla will do, then that's a different story.

carlos | 8 september 2016

I hope they do, honestly! However, I prefer to be realistic and not to be overly optimistic (less chances for dissapointments ). Based on previous history, chances are I am right.

jordanrichard | 8 september 2016

What will be interesting to see is how many more reservations get made once the M≡ actually hits the streets. I mean nearly 400,000 people put their money down on a car that really only a relative few have actually seen in person.

Red Sage ca us | 8 september 2016

carlos: Remember that Tesla Motors thought the Model S would sell around 15,000 units per year worldwide. This year alone they will sell around four times that quantity. In the first 3-1/2 years they sold the equivalent of seven years of cars. So, through the end of this year they will have sold 11 years worth of cars. That is their actual 'history' that must be considered.

Now, imagine if Tesla Motors' stated goal of 500,000 units per year of Model ☰ is similarly below actual demand. If Tesla can only manage that amount, they will have sold around 3,700,000 of the Model ☰ after eight years. Compared to that total, yeah -- pessimistic estimates of under 50,000 cars Delivered during 2017 would indeed be 'virtually none'. And yes, most of that nearly 4,000,000 cars would be Delivered in or after 2019. Just as the 2,500 Model S Delivered in 2012 is a pretty low percentage (1.5%) of the 165,000 that will have reached Customers by the end of 2016. You have to start somewhere.