TSLA stock bump when design studio is fully populated?

TSLA stock bump when design studio is fully populated?

With all other things being equal, as in the market doesn't fall apart with the Euro restructuring or more debt worries, how will the TSLA stock be moved by the full design studio?

I'm thinking it will set a new 52 week high. If it does break through will it go to $40? Maybe, but could we then see the short squeeze? Here is why I think we might see a substantial bump.

Once the design studio opens up it should signal that Tesla will be able to meet or beat their competitors prices for the same or better level of power, luxury features and accessories. This should send the stock up quite a bit. I don't think this is priced into the stock at the moment. I doubt any of the investors have put 2 and 2 together yet for $ to features. The only downside could be the cost of the battery and time to recharge when traveling. But we should see apples to apples comparisons where the Model S wins out.

I hope we'll see MotorTrend and Car&Driver articles hit soon after the design studio opens up. The software industry is notorious for embargo's like this and I hope to see the same thing from TM.

Mycroft | 10. Dezember 2011

I think you'll see a big yawn from the market when the design studio is opened up. There might be a blip when the Model X is revealed though.

I don't think there'll be serious movement until test drives start and we get some gushing press reviews. Or at least I hope the press reviews will be gushing.

Peak Oil bruin | 11. Dezember 2011

Agree with Mycroft- design studio is pretty much ether for trading.
Model X release - next week? - should certainly establish TSLA as THE player in private electric transport. If they can tickle a starting X price under of $35-$40k the stock is upper 30s by year end. Of course the macro, (euro holding up and) kicking the can further is critical.

Mycroft | 11. Dezember 2011

" If they can tickle a starting X price under of $35-$40k "

No way. The X will be priced at least as much as the S and if 4-wheel drive is standard, then it will be significantly more than the S. That's why I don't think they'll announce any pricing with the X prototype reveal. Too many variables with the economy and inflation.

Robert.Boston | 11. Dezember 2011

@Mycroft: completely agree. Starting with the same basic platform as the Model S, there's no way that the Model X ends up cheaper: the chassis is larger, more adult seating, plus larger battery packs required for the same distance (because the CdA and weight will be higher than the Model S). I'm guessing a $10k premium for the base model, vs. base Model S.

Volker.Berlin | 11. Dezember 2011

For what it's worth... I'm guessing pretty much same pricing/options as for the Model S. Just like Volvo who for a long time sold station wagons and sedans at the same price (or do they still?).

TikiMan | 11. Dezember 2011

Odd news recently on new car sales... According recent reports, hybrid car sales are down, and even eco car sales are either down or flat. The new Fiat 500 is tanking (but then again, I liked it better when they called it the 'Volkswagen")

I have a feeling gasoline is replacing a nice dinner out for many now days (based on how few restaurants are surviving now days), however IMHO, by summer, it's going to be replacing a lot of dinners out, cocktails out, and a nice vacation for many out there! eeeek!

Mycroft | 11. Dezember 2011

The Fiat 500 is tanking because it's over-priced for the MPG.

I see they've dropped the prices nearly $1,500!!! Maybe they'll start selling now.

Peak Oil bruin | 12. Dezember 2011

At Model X $50k base price, who do you think the SUV conquest buyers will come from? I don't believe Escalade folks are good EV prospects, based on my day-to-day observations. Porsche Cayenne buyers, maybe?

Peak Oil bruin | 12. Dezember 2011

sorry, WHERE do you think the SUV conquest buyers will come from?

Volker.Berlin | 12. Dezember 2011

X3/X5, Q5/Q7, GLK/M. And, obviously, families who would otherwise consider a "premium mini van". Sounds like a contradiction in itself, and according to some interviews with Elon, that's precisely the niche they are targeting.

Brian H | 12. Dezember 2011

Yes, and I also get the feeling that it will create its own "niche" -- the first true crossover? Sedan/minivan/SUV ++.

Teoatawki | 12. Dezember 2011

I'm hoping we can replace my wife's '05 Honda Odyssey with an X. Sure the 'base' price will be 50K, but base for the '12 equivalent of her van is already 41K.

Peak Oil bruin | 12. Dezember 2011

Wow, 41k is quite an odyssey.

michiganmodels | 12. Dezember 2011

My neighbor is passing on the Model S because he will be buying 2 Model X's (one for him and one for his wife).

She currently drives a Cadillac SRX and he drives a BMW (3 series I believe).

Teoatawki | 12. Dezember 2011

Peak Oil bruin: that's not even top-of-the-line. The touring elite package starts at $43,675.

Peak Oil bruin | 16. Dezember 2011

Teotawki - that's the most mundane 44k - makes me wonder a bit more about the dollar/yen and general dollar depreciation!

Teoatawki | 16. Dezember 2011

Mundane 44k. Indeed!
So... 44k +over 4k in sales tax for another dinosaur burner...
...or 50k with no sales tax for a luxury crossover that only burns electrons???

I think she'll want to make the right choice, if she can wait that long. | 16. Dezember 2011

I can see the Model X being priced either around the same but likely more than the Model S. I think it could do quite well. A lot of people do like their SUV's, but they don't love the fuel costs. With a Model X, an SUV owner could have their cake and eat it too. I wouldn't be surprised if some people bail on the Model S after the Model X is announced. I know a few people who are interested in it. But I'm off on tangent here. This discussion is about the stock effect on the options. I think that depends on how its played by the media. If the media makes a big deal of it, it could have an effect on the stock price in one way or another.

ncn | 18. Dezember 2011

"Odd news recently on new car sales... According recent reports, hybrid car sales are down, and even eco car sales are either down or flat. "

New car sales are down period. They were juiced by 'cash for clunkers', but frankly most of the population can't afford new cars.

Tesla, by targeting the luxury market, is targeting people who can still afford new cars. Smart of them. :-)

Regarding the stock, I rarely try to predict short-term movements, so I dunno... should be interesting to watch.

BruceR | 20. Dezember 2011

Stock only budged a very small amount in afterhours trading in the hours following the pricing release. We'll see tommorrow if the street thinks it will change TESLA's direction.

David M. | 20. Dezember 2011

Hoping the market doesn't take notice on the pricing. Might not be a good thing. Can we just fast forward to the Model X reveal or the 5 star safety rating announcement. That's when the bump up will come.

JoeFee | 20. Dezember 2011

The street is clueless when it comes to TSLA:

- They fail to see the ground breaking nature of the MS and TSLA
- TSLA is expecting to make a huge double digit margin vs single digits for ICE manufactures
- They compare with current PEV's/EV's, which are a joke vs the MS
- They bought a 4B$ factory for almost nothing
- Mercedes has a right of 1st refusal to buy the company out
- All the numbers they have put out are based on 1 shift/20,000 units not 3 shits with 3+ models
- The average selling price of the MS will be >80K not 50K
- They will have many models, including a <30K mass market car and a super sports car in Roaster 2.0 by 2016
- They will turn a profit before 2014. They will print money thereafter.
- Elon Musk is the greatest visionary CEO since Steve Jobs
- The enormous number of TSLA shorts will be victims of the "worse short squeeze of all time."

David M. | 20. Dezember 2011

True, True. . .

Timo | 20. Dezember 2011

- Mercedes has a right of 1st refusal to buy the company out

What's that? I haven't been paying close attention to Tesla financial status and I don't have any clue what Mercedes has to do with Tesla.

David M. | 21. Dezember 2011

Yes, i remember hearing about Mercedes paying for that priveledge while Toyota fell asleep at the wheel. In the end i don't think Mercedes will do it, therefore that would inhibit an early Toyota buyout. Either way it pretty much guarantees a much more expensive buyout from Toyota.

Timo | 21. Dezember 2011

What privilege? What exactly does that mean? Refusal of what?

I have no idea what you guys are talking about.

Brian H | 21. Dezember 2011

Privilege of "first refusal". Means TM has to allow Daimler to match any buyout offer and take control if TM goes up for sale.