to elon, slap the haters and naysayers

to elon, slap the haters and naysayers

I think the 3 has about 400,000 deposits and it is bound to be over half a million by the time any of them ship.
The next car you said will use the 3 platform as well.

Please get the build line running ASAP and if there is A way open another line.
Having 2 production lines will scale up faster and you have a huge backlog NOW.
adding the next model Y or whatever would have to wait years if you want to deliver the 3 before the Y.
running 2 lines will deliver the most 3's and then the second line takes over the building of the Y.

Please someone at Tesla run the numbers on production capacity vs. time to build and ship everything you will need to fill the orders.

Delivering on time or sooner and ramping up fast will show the world!
Please make them eat crow.

malcolm.hall1932 | 27. April 2016

Okay, But not at the expense of quality - which would impose a huge burden on schedule.

Nexxus | 27. April 2016

It's my guess, and just a guess, that Tesla will have four separate production lines for the Model ≡. Each with robotics for stamping, welding, and assembly. The real test will be: Can they get enough battery packs out of the gigafactory in time to meet production? I don't think that scaling up production at Freemont is the problem. I think scaling up at the gigafactory is.

kzodz | 27. April 2016

There is a reason that they always stuck with a late 2017 production. There is no way the car will be profitable until they get the costs of batteries much lower through a combination of chemistry and any cost savings the gigafactory may provide. Besides scaling up too fast will just prove the 'haters' right that Tesla can't produce a quality car.

Side note: What's the deal with everyone who disagrees with people being deemed Haters and Deniers. Personally, I think the problem is extremists on either side. i.e. the politicians demanding that people listen when they say the science is settled. Science is never settled. And just because people act green doesn't mean you should trust what they say. Most of the yapping mouths are mostly speaking from self interest. The politicans wan't more oversight and bureaucracy. Business people want to enrich themselves. Cap & Trade is just a tool to enrich bankers and create a HUGE bureaucracy. You want to cut use of fossile fuels? Raise the price. Problem solved. People will stop buying huge SUV's and downsize their cars. That would have triple the effect on air quality that incentives for suv's will ever make.

PhillyGal | 27. April 2016

To add, it's not just the cost of batteries but the ability to even produce that many.

I think I recall hearing that all of the world's current lithium ion battery production per year for all purposes everywhere... is about what Tesla would need to make in order to make 500,000 cars per year.

That's a big deal.

SCCRENDO | 27. April 2016

@ed. You make it sound like Elon is purposely holding up production. If he could have had the car out yesterday he would have.
@kzod. Not everyone is labeled a hater and denier. It's only the haters and deniers that are labeled as such.

SCCRENDO | 27. April 2016

@ed. The ModelS was to show the world. The problem was that the only way to do it was with an expensive car that the masses could not afford. The Model S has paved the way for the Model 3, the car for the masses. And Elon is moving along as rapidly as he can

dsvick | 27. April 2016

@ed said Please someone at Tesla run the numbers on production capacity vs. time to build and ship everything you will need to fill the orders.

I'm sure some has. In fact, I'm sure they've done it several times and that they will do everything they can to ramp up production so that people are not waiting several years. Can they speed up the initial release? Probably not, and I'd rather they not try if it means sacrificing quality. Sure, I'd love to get my ☰ earlier than I'm expecting it, but I'm also perfectly fine getting a quality vehicle, on time. | 27. April 2016

Lost on this is how much design and engineering has to go into creating a production line. Getting a few prototype vehicles is a very large undertaking. Making a functional factory to produce the vehicle is several magnitudes more effort. It's not something you can shower a ton of money and make it happen faster (although it still costs a ton of money).

Tesla has been through the effort twice now (Model S and X) and has a good amount of experience now. Still each vehicle design requires new robots, new programming, new suppliers, new assembly processes, new training, new stamping, new testing, new quality validations, and a lot more. Quite a bit of this can't even start until the design is finalized and I'd guess they are at least 9 months away from that point. All of this is happening faster than most other car companies that have been in the business for 50+ years. Often prototype to producing sellable cars is a 3+ year process.

Drdpharris | 27. April 2016

Agreed. However, it appears that the external body and frame design is finished, or very close to it (the trunk lid may be not be complete), and so the design those parts of the line, such as body stamping, frame construction, etc. can begin (I suspect it has started). The interior is may also be close to complete, other than the dash/controls. I am sure they have it in hand. | 27. April 2016

In many cases close is not good enough. The front bumper mold will likely cost over $1M to make. You don't want to scrap it if some small change is necessary. They are still working out the aerodynamics, and crash testing is likely many months away. They are not going to commit to tooling until these and many other critical validation steps are complete.

As for the frame, it's a prototype mostly for styling. It's unclear what state the final frame design is in. Perhaps it is near final, but I very much doubt it. Issues that are likely still left include manufacturability design work (i.e. can it be made and how can it be made, and can it be made inexpensively). Then another group of engineers has to evaluate repairability - getting to various parts for assembly and repair. Other teams need to see how wiring, airbags, ducting, coolant lines, and a host of other items fit in. I find it quiet amazing that all this can come together in a couple of years.

I'm sure it can be done in a shorter period of time if you don't care about safety, manufacturability, repairability and quality. We already have a lot of car companies where these items are not high priority, and making it cheap is the primary goal. I'm glad Tesla is not following this path.

Red Sage ca us | 27. April 2016
malcolm.hall1932 | 27. April 2016

TeslaTap: Great analysis. Tesla has to avoid the QA problems which held up the MX shipments.

Badbot | 28. April 2016

I did not mean to shortcut the Q&A processes.
I just meant hitting the first production deadline or beating it by a few days.

The first production run has to start very slow so they can fine tune the thousands of operations.
Also the first run is something of a beta test and that is why the employees get the very first cars and report any issues the next day at work.
starting the feedback loop to kill any 'bugs' ASAP.

after that I hoped that the ramping up might be done with extra Q&A employees in place to monitor that everything is still 100 percent right.
I never meant chasing out put numbers and tossing anything coming out of the line to the loyal customers.

I am waiting on mine too and I want it to be perfect too.

bj | 28. April 2016

@ed - um, do you seriously think you are telling Tesla anything they don't already know or haven't thought about?

"Please someone at Tesla run the numbers on production capacity vs. time to build and ship everything you will need to fill the orders."

If I were Tesla, I would be insulted. They have been building cars for 8 years, I suspect they might just have a bit of a clue about this.

SCCRENDO | 29. April 2016

@ed. If I were you I would apply for a job at Tesla. Seems like you are a whole lot smarter than anyone there.

dachuyn | 29. April 2016

Only 2 things ...
1. Make a hatchback if possible
2. Make the car to sit as (legally) low as possible

And perhaps widen the bumpers an inch or two ...

David N | 29. April 2016

Gigafactory = Model 3
Elon has said that These two are tied together.
It's all about timing.
Can't have an assembly line fully staffed w employees if there are not enough better packs for the cars, visa versa, can't have tens of thousands of battery packs sitting around w no vehicles to put them in.
GF and Model 3 must be timed for coproduction.

SamO | 01. April 2017

Some of the chickens are headless and running around. But they don't know that they're dead yet.

Carl Thompson | 01. April 2017

Etiquette on every forum on the internet is to not bump every old topic on the site so that no one can tell what's new and relevant. Please be considerate.


SamO | 01. April 2017

A citation would be nice if you are going to claim what is customary on "EVERY" forum.

Red Sage ca us | 02. April 2017

One of my favorite sentences in the English language?

"I told you so!"

Bighorn | 02. April 2017
SamO | 02. April 2017

How refreshing. What a great thread and so topical.

Red Sage ca us | 11. April 2017

Hmmm... It seems someone is determined to make sure we all converse about that vehicle that shall not be named. So...