Forums

When are gas prices going to tick up?

When are gas prices going to tick up?

I don't think Elon expected to be battling against ridiculously low gas prices while trying to sell his cars. If nothing else this should be a reason for an extension of the EV tax credit (if they're not going to impose a carbon tax, as they should.)

So when are prices going to start going up again? 2017? 2018? 2025? When we're buying beachfront property in Atlanta?

SO | 24. September 2016

Fortunately, Tesla makes vehicles that people want regardless of gas prices.

bmalloy0 | 24. September 2016

If I could guess, I'd have enough money to own at least one of each Tesla model.

Sadly, I'm looking at just a low-mid tier Model 3

jordanrichard | 25. September 2016

The press makes a bigger deal out of the correlation of gas prices to Tesla sales than it is. Over the last 2 1/2 years I have had my car and in talking to people, it's not so much the price of gas it is the nuisance/choir of having to stop and get gas that seems to bother people. I have literally lost count on how many times people have expressed how nice it would to, "...have to stop and get gas" or some variation of that statement. That and stopping to get oil changes. Whether gas is $5 a gal. or $1.25, it is still a chore, especially in cold weather states. Nobody likes standing out in 0 degree weather, with the wind blowing, making it feel like -15, to put gas in their cars.

It is this scenario that I tell people that I no longer have to be in to "fuel" up my MS. Since I am in CT every person I mention this to, can relate.

So yes, the price of gas may play a part in this, but it's not the sole thing.

tstolz | 25. September 2016

Gas prices are predicted to continue to fluctuate as price is a function of supply and demand. No one thinks we are going to run out of oil anymore and I think most predict peak oil demand at about 2030.

Personally, for whatever that's worth, I think prices will stay relatively low forever now that renewables are taking off ... after all ... Saudi Arabia doesn't want to leave it in the ground and they can produce cheaper than anyone.

rgrant | 25. September 2016

@jordanrichard - I'm down south and it's depressing to see Hummers back out on the road. But I can definitely see the appeal you mention. And thank goodness Elon recognized the need to sell the sizzle. These are the most desirable cars on the road today.

@tstolz - you're probably right and that's a depressing thought, except for the renewables point of course. I just don't think we can take much more global warming... :(

Red Sage ca us | 25. September 2016

If someone is paying in the range of $0.12 per kWh for electricity, Premium gasoline for a 20 MPG vehicle has to cost less than $1.01 per gallon to be on par. Most wouldn't go back to gasoline if it were only $0.50 per gallon.

DonS | 25. September 2016

Low gas prices have not been an issue so far, but it will be a major buying factor for lower cost vehicles like the Model 3 and the Bolt.
Gas prices are low because the world economy is lethargic. Despite success stories at some companies, unemployment continues to be problematic, US imports are slow causing shipping bankruptcies, and US factories are endlessly downsized to foreign countries. US, Europe and China are all using less oil than the last boom, causing a supply glut.

robgorman | 25. September 2016

When are gas prices going to tick up? Soon.

dansplans | 25. September 2016

"DonS | September 25, 2016
Low gas prices have not been an issue so far, but it will be a major buying factor for lower cost vehicles like the Model 3 and the Bolt.
Gas prices are low because the world economy is lethargic. Despite success stories at some companies, unemployment continues to be problematic, US imports are slow causing shipping bankruptcies, and US factories are endlessly downsized to foreign countries. US, Europe and China are all using less oil than the last boom, causing a supply glut."

None of this bodes well for auto sales, ICE or EV. Car inventories appear to be rising worldwide. If the US slips into a recession, the auto business could get very ugly, very quickly. Contrary to popular belief, Tesla is not immune to the market cycle.

Dramsey | 26. September 2016

Mentioned in another thread, but appropriate here: world oil surplus triples,

So don't look for gas prices to be going up any time soon.

lilbean | 26. September 2016

Right before Thanksgiving.

makobill | 26. September 2016

If it was a nickel a gallon, I'd still drive an EV I can afford. Not to dive too deeply in politics, but the Middle East needs to go back to being known for other things rather than oil - and I would love nothing more than my grandson to ask me what "OPEC" meant in the near future. Save the environment, save our soldiers, lower EV maintenance, just annoyed at the smell of gas, pick your poison - but drive an EV....

nadurse | 26. September 2016

It would not surprise me if the days of $5 gas is over, for a variety/combination of reasons.

1) The US has the capability to pump out more gas than ever before due to the relatively new shale fracking technology. Many US suppliers have shut down or limited production due to the low costs so it is not profitable enough to pump out more oil/gas. The US has the highest oil reserves they've had in recent history due to the low prices.

2) OPEC is still in business, they have an interest in the seeing the higher cost US companies slowing down production by keeping price low and making sure no one is hurting for oil.

3)Iran is back in the oil game with sanctions lifted, they want to start making money off their oil reserves.

4) Renewable energy is set to start dramatically taking more and more market share off fossil fuel industry in the next ten years, so the glut of oil out there now, assuming production would stay approx where it is, would get worse.

5) Electric and hybrid vehicles will also take more and more market share of the automotive industry in the next ten years DESPITE relatively low cost of gas, this is due to advancements in battery and vehicle cost, and charging infrastructure.
(for the sake of brevity i just gave high level topics)

The other thing to keep in mind is that even if gas stays this cheap or gets cheaper, fossil fuels are still fighting a losing battle, its just a matter of time. Fossil fuels are a commodity, but they are fighting a battle against technology. That technology is going to get better and cost less as a function of time where as commodities will always be inherently fickle and finite. The cost curves for solar/lithium batteries are well documented as you can see here:

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/12/is-this-the-best-solar-chart-yet/
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/li-ion-battery-costs-to-...

rgrant | 26. September 2016

+1 @nadurse - very informative post. And good hear that gas prices aren't holding things back :)

bgbythsea | 23. Oktober 2016

+1, I recall a quote, sorry I can't cite source, I think from a Saudi official that "the oil will outlast the need for oil." So the price is not a function of long term scarcity, but of politics and market manipulation. It seems that EV demand is not adversely affected by lower gas prices, but is positively affected by higher gas costs. IMO EV's are going to grow in popularity despite what gas does.