In reply to Krzysztof Grochowski:
@ElonMusk 13m13 minutes ago - @kryniog The shorter wheelbase only allows for a 75 kWh pack in Model 3 at current cell/module energy densities
Max range at 4miles/kWh = 300 miles. Sweet spot.
PERFORMANCE MODEL 3 coming March 2018.https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/845293157977767937
MODEL S is still the car Elon will drive when Model 3 arriveshttps://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/845291536480813056
Will talk about SES Launch/Land/Relaunch in detail NEXT WEEKhttps://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/845290713776451584
RHD coming "Summer 2018"https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/845290417591541760
DUAL MOTOR "in 6 to 9 months" = September 2017-December 2017https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/845287981652963328
BORING COMPANY STARTS DIGGING Aprilhttps://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/845285007211950080
"Will talk about Model 3 in detail NEXT WEEK"
Actually that tweet says he'll talk about SpaceX next week.
You are right: the quote I thought referred to Model 3 referred to SES Launch Land Relauch of previously flown rocket.
Steven Bowles @elonmusk how excited are you about the SES launch next week?! I don't know how you're focused on model 3 with that ahead! #makinghistory
Elon Musk @BlueBowles If fate is on our side, it will be amazing. Will talk about that in detail next week.
given this news I expect prices to be lower than expected.
75kw isn't much. Where the S has 100kw.
loads cheaper to make.
I would expect d75 to be 45k-50k max.
at 129/kw if the entry is 55 or 50 that's only 20kw more. That's a cost of only 2.5k more so about 6k more with profits in actual pricing for the increase. I'd bet that you'll get a 75d for 50k and other options quite easily. Knowing this there will only be 2 battery packs.
$129/kw seems a bit low currently. Where did you see that figure?
"'d bet that you'll get a 75d for 50k and other options quite easily. "
Depending on what other options are.
No performance. No dual motor.
$35,000 start price
$2500 Tech package/bio defense
$2500 Interior upgrade
$1500 Glass roof
75kWh battery at $250/kWh (price of retail MW size energy products) = $18,750 for the battery. This seems to be the upper limit of cost. Tesla stated that their previous cost from Panasonic was "below $190/kWh.
Lower limit is material costs which are around $60/kWh.
Stated minimum expectation that Gigafactory scale would drop costs 30%.
So that puts us at $133 assuming (previous estimated scale of 35GWh). And an expectation to hit $100/kWh by 2020.
SamO: "BORING COMPANY STARTS DIGGING April
the car is going into production for employees in July.
What are you even talking about.
Trolls gonna troll. Eagles needs a new approach since his assumption that Tesla had to sell fully optioned cars first was debunked.
" 'DUAL MOTOR' in 6 to 9 months = September 2017-December 2017'
Which is when the first T3's are going to ship to Tesla employees. An odd tweet unless Musk means 6-9 months after the first T3's start shipping which would put AWD in the last quarter of 2018."
If it means Sep - Dec (I thought so too but there's been some debate) then that could be a clue that the Model 3 is _ahead_ of schedule and September is after the initial release.
I knew the troll would find new material.
With half-a-million reservations and only 80,000 or so cars planned for build this year, I can't imagine this "dampening sales". It may turn a few reservationists into Model S owners (new or CPO), or may push some into other cars, but just about any choice Tesla made was going to do that - build AWD first, and the people hoping for a base model with a tax rebate might drop out; build RWD first and those with loftier ambitions might not want to wait.
I still go back to the plan on March 31, 2016, when Musk was "fairly confident" that deliveries would begin by the end of 2017. It sounds to me like AWD deliveries are still on that track..
Eagles is pissed he was wrong about fully optioned cars going first. Of course he's wrong on just about everything else, and this is working to be a bad start to 2017 for Mr TrumpEagles.
It has been demonstrated that the wheelbase of the Model 3 is not that much smaller than the Model S. The Model 3 will also be a little narrower that the Model S. But against this is the potential extra capacity available because the new battery cells are taller and more energy dense and should give a little more battery capacity for a given area. So the large reduction from a capacity of 100kWh in the Model S to a maximum capacity of 75kWh in the Model 3 does seem to add up. It seems to me that the Model 3 should be able to fit more capacity than 75kWh. I trust Elon is totally accurate in what he has stated but does anyone agree or have an explanation?
75KW battery on the Model 3 should be plenty.
"Eagles is pissed he was wrong about fully optioned cars going first"
Almost all of us were wrong about fully optioned cars going first.
I don't think almost all of us were wrong.
Maybe you and Eagles.
Fully optioned cars were planned to go first. But then the huge reservation response and Great Ramp Up happened.
Was accurate to quote plans from before.Those quoting Elon before were not wrong, Elon just changed his mind.
Musk stated fully optioned cars would go first so it seems his original plan was to offer fully optioned cars early. The current Twitter storm seems to indicate that Tesla cannot produce fully optioned cars early so will offer what it can.
For many of us an AWD, 300 mile range, tow package, EV was going to be a car we would could justify paying for since it would be a car we could live with 10 years. For us, we'll have to wait, likely give up our orders and get back in line when AWD etc. are offered in 2018 sometime.
No orders will have to be "given up" - just wait in line for your turn. That is if you actually have a reservation, which the troll does not.
Chuckle...Eagles since you aren't really planning on getting a car, none of this will impact you.
Beat me to it KP!
I don't like seeing bullying on here. Eagles is expressing an opinion which he/she has the right to do. And a decent debate is welcome. Name calling and insults does not make for interesting reading for the rest of us.
Eagles is a known troll. Take a read through this forum. Not bullying - he deliberately spreads misinformation and has done so ever since he first appeared.
@Carl - "Almost all of us were wrong about fully optioned cars going first."
Nope. I never thought that was likely and said so often on this forum. I regularly challenged Eagles on his repeated insistence it would be that way. The fact that Tesla did this in the past was the laziest and weakest argument around that it would forever continue to do things that way. The 400k reservations is what changed it and I repeatedly explained why that meant Tesla would have to do things differently. I was right.
@KP - "Eagles is a known troll. Take a read through this forum."
Except most of his posts have been flagged out of existence. Chuckle.
What I expected -- 55 kWh and a 75 kWh option.
Wow eagles you're more cranky than usual. That release candidate video must have set you off! LOL!
Welcome to all Model 3 reservations and interested parties.
Astroturfers can go fuck themselves.
Mr TrumpEagles is just really upset that he was incredibly wrong about fully optioned Model 3s being the first off the line. He was adamant that was the only way for Tesla to stay afloat, and was sure they wouldn't/couldn't sell a base Model 3.
His frustration is showing. It's like candy to me!
Tesla’s current custom 18650 battery cells produced by Panasonic are estimated to have an energy density of ~250 Wh/kg and the cost is variable (depending on energy density use case – Powerwalls and Tesla auto use cases currently have different energy densities and are unknown. A Tesla official said earlier this year that the cost of its battery pack was “less than $190 per kWh”, which would indicate that the cells are about $100 to $150 per kWh depending on the battery pack level cost.
It will be interesting to see how the new 2170 cell compares to those specs. We should know more in the coming weeks as production starts at the Gigafactory.
excited the battery will be that big as an option, I will probably still get base pack. Musk hinted in a tweet yesterday the model 3 base would have more range then the bolt. Although I am unsure if he is suggesting the higher battery pack will, which seems obvious, or all versions.
Tesla is now claiming 35% battery cost reduction at ‘Gigafactory 1’ – hinting at breakthrough cost below $125/kWh
This was posted last month with new cells.
Wow, 75kw would be fantastic, but I maybe done speculating and just wait for the configure email comes and what shows up on the screen :).
Being in the moment. Fascinating suggestion for a forum about a future vehicle.
Just saw it on facebook too, hope that will be an option since THAT was #1 on my wish list! I will take the RWD with the bigger battery, hope, hope, hope.
Man, I don't even think I need a bigger battery, if I can't get D/P right away anyway.
Could it be that I end up picking a base model?
215 miles of range, single motor and a couple fun features? My wallet would be thankful.
@Phillygal: we are on the same page. Base pack and RWD for me!
RWD and 75 KWh for us!
@Philygal & Ehninger1212: +1. Base pack & RWD. I would like to get the AP option. I think the base model will have 240 miles range just enough to beat the Bolt.
Elon did say fully optioned cars will be built first. However, "fully optioned" means options available from the get go. Since AWD won't be available from the beginning, then a fully optioned car would not be an AWD car. A fully optioned MS in 2012, 2013 and for 9 months of 2014 did not include AWD.
@bj , @akgolf
We believed that highly optioned cars would be sold first because that's exactly what Elon Musk said himself last year:
“Our default plan as we have done in the past is that the initial sales are relatively highly optioned versions of the car, because we’ve got to pay back the investment of the tooling and everything, so it makes sense to have the higher optioned versions first. That’s what we did with the S and obviously again with the X.”
Now you say that you never believed it and have been saying so all along. Show me a post you wrote where you said Musk was wrong.
Carl, there are several hundred posts over the last year where multiple people have stated such.
Elon's statement was an unprepared offhand comment in response to a question during a meeting prior to the enormous pre-reveal response. Many if not most people came to believe that like many things this stance would change
It's important to note the date of his statement: Feb 10, 2016, a month and a half before the world said "Just shut up and take my money".
On the morning of April 1, he tweeted "Definitely going to need to rethink production planning..." - which would include prioritizing highly optioned cars.
And E really needs to make sure he's keeping up with his meds.
IMHO, it's hypocritical attention-whoring to pollute threads with accusations that someone's a troll and drop the term:
Those with personal grudges against others would do best to just sit on their hands than waste our time having to scroll over your frivolous "FLAGGED" posts.
Great connection of the dots. I think your timing is perfect and it's clear that people have been selectively pushing certain facts in order to create a narrative.
But regardless of what they thought in the past, it's clear there is an updated plan.
Just like we were saying.
"On the morning of April 1, he tweeted "Definitely going to need to rethink production planning..." - which would include prioritizing highly optioned cars."
Musk did not make the connection you do that a faster ramp up on production meant a "less advanced technology than the TS" and loss of options like AWD and towing package. Tesla also still states more highly optioned car orders get priority.
The problem now is which options is Tesla pulling from the T3.
I'd be interested where Tesla states that information. But it also wouldn't surprise me - highly optioned cars outfitted from available options may still get production priority. We're simply at the point that not ALL options expected for the car will be available initially.
And I don't believe that I ever made a connection between rethinking production planning and "less advanced technology" that your fevered brain cooked up.