I am around 8600 on the WL. What's the chance that I will get it this year?
Close to 78.57%
I would say you have a 50% chance.
But...that's only if they keep to their schedule which they do about 65% of the time.
Keep in mind I'm only right 30% of the time.
With Laplace in mind that would be just a 9.75% chance.
No way, Jose.
8600 standard production in USA probably translates to around 9500 cars that need to be produced AND delivered in 2015 or around 13000 Model X produced in 2015 if it takes around 4 weeks to deliver after production.
I would say your chances are slim.
Sure thing. Take it to the bank.
I'd be surprised if there are deliveries in any nations other than US and Canada during the 2015 calendar year. I believe that at least 70% of vehicles manufactured during 2015 will be delivered the same year. And 95% or better of deliveries will be to US Customers. So it really depends upon how many you expect to be produced, where you live, and your place in the queue.
"surprised if there are deliveries in any nations other than US and Canada during the 2015 calendar year"
How about us Europeans with low Signature-ticket ?
Your calculations are assuming 100% of total reservations turn into orders. This is impossible as a fair number have already canceled, and not everyone who has a reservation will order immediately. It also doesn't take anywhere near 4 weeks to turn around an order. Factory deliveries get turned around in a matter of days and even shipping cross country shouldn't take more than a couple weeks.
8600 will likely mean a VIN no higher than 6000. I'd say it's possible for an end of year delivery, but far from a guarantee. I'm counting on my 10,053 sometime in Q1 2016.
@timf2001: My calculation does not assume 100% of total reservations. It does assume that Signatures get delivered before General Production and little more than 15% of the lower numbers have canceled their reservation.
About 2000 Signature reservations exist including less than 600 European Signatures. My guess is that less Signature holders have canceled their reservations than General Production holders.
If we exclude the European Signatures, the number 8,600 translates to 10,000 in the queue because I guess no one thinks the Signature reservations will get delivered after General Production.
The Service Center in Göteborg, Sweden thinks it's possible for Tesla to deliver the first Swedish Model X car in November. I hope that's the case but does not take it for granted.
@timf2001: Looks like you either completely forgot the Signatures reservations or think that about 40% have canceled their reservations.
I'm not expecting them to even touch the European reservations until 2016.
@ timf2001: I rephrase: Looks like you either completely forgot the US Signatures reservations or think that about 40% of the most dedicated early adopters have canceled their reservations.
You wrote: "8600 will likely mean a VIN no higher than 6000."
8,600 General Production + 1,400 Signatures is 10,000 reserved cars. If you completely forgot the US Signatures, you still thinks that 30%, twice as much as the indication on all of the +20k at end of year 2014, of the first reservation holders have canceled their reservation.
If including Signatures you seem to think the number is 40%. I think this number is very high and we have no indication that it should be that high.
Tesla has made the commitment to be an international brand. If they start rolling the MX off the production line in August, they ought to be able to load up a boat along with MS shipments for Europe by the end of September with deliveries in Europe, especially Norway, by the end of October. The UK could be later because of the RHD requirement. If they have enough MX reservations and MS orders in China to justify a shipment, that might be a good idea.
I heard that there are about 1300 signature reservations for the MX. If deliveries begin in August, these could all be built by the end of September. They will almost certainly have the production capacity. It all depends on how fast Tesla wants to ramp up the X.
Perhaps I oversimplified my analysis. With Model S, there were a number of options that allowed you to either jump the line by adding certain features (P85, air suspension) or delayed delivery (40/60, coils). My dad's Model S P85 has a VIN in the low 6000s despite his reservation number being well over 14,000. It's certainly possible for something similar to happen with Model X, although perhaps not on as great a scale since Tesla has much more production experience now.
Even if people don't cancel their reservations, there could still be reasons why others could jump forward in line by 40% or more. It's easy to assume all reservation holders are ready to click on the Order button the second it appears like the posters who frequent the message boards, but perhaps they leased another car in the interim and it's not due back for another year, or they want to wait for later production so any early bugs are worked out. A $5000 refundable reservation requires little discretion; going through with a $100,000 purchase takes more thought.
According to what I just heard Elon say on the earnings conference call, a few hundred/month for two months and then full production of 1,000 per week, the same as Model S for Oct, Nov, and Dec. Very close to some of the other estimates that we have seen. If this holds true some of us will have it for our Christmas Presents.
Elon actually equivocated quite a bit re:Model X ramp. I think toward the end he showed some sensitivity toward reservation holders of long standing. What I came away with is first customer deliveries now in September. There will be at least two months of slow ramp up. That's September and October. So maybe we could expect Signature shipments of 1300 by the end of October, followed by 7000 to 8000 shipments total for November plus December. Shipments are not deliveries. It sounds like they are moving away from cramming western U.S. Shipments into the last month of the quarter. Maybe they will be able to deliver 7,000 Model X vehicles in 2015. If so, there goes my Christmas present. :-((
Elon expressed confidence in delivering 55,000 S and X vehicles in 2015. If they can get 7,000 Model X cars delivered, that means more than than 48,000 Model S deliveries. They delivered a little over 10,000 in Q1. That leaves 38,000 deliveries needed in the last three quarters of the year, an average of 12,700 per quarter. If demand continues to be strong, this sounds doable, a little less than 1,000 per week.
The Good Lord willin', and the crik don't rise.