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Plan B Solution to my "Wait for MX " problem: Plan B is Underway but getting a little scary

Plan B Solution to my "Wait for MX " problem: Plan B is Underway but getting a little scary

Wait a minute.
Plan A was to cash in the stock when it's time to buy the Model X. The appreciation in value to at least cover part of the cost of the X. ( What can I say? I'm an optimist. ). Continuing Plan A: Sell wife's 2012 MB coupe and buy Model ≡ when available maybe two years from now at not so much net cost. (She is tall but likes the looks of the MB coupe, the fact that it is small and easy to maneuver and the acceleration but finds getting in and out to be increasingly difficult). I think she will be delighted with the Tesla. (She can't operate a gas pump but she manages a golf cart very well...). No more pumping gas for me.

Downside of Plan A: waiting forever for MX.

How about this for a plan B?
Lease an MS now for 3 years. Drive it until I get my MX. When MX comes in, give MS to wife. Sell her car two years early and save a few grand worth of depreciation. Time purchase of Model ≡ to coincide with end of lease.

Upside: get a Tesla 7 or 8 months sooner. Get wife a Tesla 24 months sooner. Stay long in stock that I believe has substantial upside. Flexibility to tolerate any further MX delays. Save $1-2K on gas.
Downside: lease cost is sunk $ less the depreciation benefit. Maybe $37K. Like renting a Tesla for $1+ K per month.

Have spousal support.

Update: own a Demo MS as of 2/10/15. Will trade for MX. Much more economical and flexible plan B than leasing, thanks to Forum members' advice.

Keven | 14. November 2014

I empathize as I have had similar thoughts while waiting for the elusive X. However, not to rain on your parade, but to throw out the counter arguments I've used on myself:

-every transaction has a not inconsiderable cost. How many car transactions do you really want to make?
-If you really want an X, an S is a bandaid (albeit a very fine one). It will detract somewhat from the pleasure in finally getting the X, as many of the big pluses are the same
-does your wife really want to give up her MB or is this just to make you happy (sweet, but you may hear more over time)
-if your wife really likes the S, she may be hard to move to the Model ≡, thereby eroding your financial plan

But I like the thinking and could be swayed myself, so tell me where I'm wrong!

georgehawley.fl.us | 14. November 2014

Thanks, @Keven, just the kind of clear thinking I was hoping for.
My beautiful bride is a long-legged lady 5' 7" tall. I am 77 and she is a few years younger.
The MB is getting harder to get in and out of as time goes on. She has remarked on it a number of times. She also abhors the unfriendly infotainment user interface. In the past she has driven a Lexus LS and can handle a larger car but prefers a more compact drive which is what I expect some variation of the ≡ to be. She loves the acceleration of the 300 hp V6 in the E350. I expect the Tesla to better that.

I will discuss the view you present before we decide on a course of action.

carlk | 15. November 2014

People can adapt very well. I have been driving small sporty cars pretty much all of my life, the last car being a Cayman S, and don't like big cars at all. I was attracted to the MS but always have the anxiety about the size until I actually owned the car. I don't feel a thing about the size when driving on the Bay Area streets or parking long as I don't try to do street parking in SF which I don't like with any cars anyway. Wife has been driving SUV's and never liked small cars until she got a Prius a few years ago. She now enjoys the car very much especially for its frugalness on gas. Then all of a sudden after we had the MS she told me she wants an MX.

A lot of people's dislike of big cars is the gas consumption and pollution. MS/MX don't have any of that. That's one of the major reasons I would never have owned a big car but still want the M's.

As for the plans my thought is at your age, and even mine, the issue is not how to spend the money but when. Anything you don't spend now you might not get a chance to spend later, or even if you do you may not get the same enjoyment as now. That's what I follow when I'm making all my plans.

timf2001 | 15. November 2014

I would not be confident enough in the Model 3 release date to plan on a 3 year lease covering the period until it is available. If you are going to go the Model S route, the best bet is to buy it and have the flexibility to sell or trade it in whenever you are ready for your next vehicle. A year from now my advice may be different, but given the delays with the Model X there's no telling what will happen with the 3. You could find yourself in the uncomfortable predicament 3 years from now needing an extra 6 months with the S and the bank not giving you that option.

georgehawley.fl.us | 15. November 2014

@carlk: thanks for the input and sage advice. The basic reason I have for buying the Tesla in the first place is to get one last toy. Might as well go for it sooner than later. You never know.

georgehawley.fl.us | 15. November 2014

@timf2001: good point about Model ≡ schedule uncertainty. New chassis, new body, new materials for body, new battery pack, new interior, etc. mean more opportunities for delay. If I order MS now, lease runs out in early 2018. I'll take your advice and think about that. Thanks.

Keven | 15. November 2014

@georgehawley.fl.us: Upon further thought, I suggest you buy an S immediately (mights as well get the performance version and keep 911 owners on their toes) and keep the X reservation. If your brides' need is for easier ingress/egress, she will commandeer the X anyway. (I don't think the S is any easier to get in and out of than the MB E, but I can be corrected by those with first hand knowledge.)

Since when is being overly practical any fun? You are being extra practical by selecting a Tesla, indulge yourself on the timing and model.

I look forward to living vicariously though your future posts. (It's a high probability my X will be requisitioned as well, but I'm going to wait it out anyway.)

carlk | 15. November 2014

@georgehawley That's my attitude too. What to lose if it turns out to be not my last toy?

jjs | 15. November 2014

carpe diem

georgehawley.fl.us | 15. November 2014

Thanks, @carlk and @jjs for the encouragement. As domestic harmony is an important element to be preserved, although my sweet wife has already given the thumbs up, I have added a first step to plan B, a test drive to allow her to get behind the wheel instead of sitting in the back seat. I think this will cement the deal. Then it will be just a timing issue.

jjs | 15. November 2014

George, my apologies for an incomplete response. I will endeavor to be more complete.

Carpe diem, when approved by a higher power. :)

georgehawley.fl.us | 16. November 2014

"She who must be obeyed" in the words of Rumpole.

georgehawley.fl.us | 19. November 2014

Oh-oh, plan B hiccup. Tesla sales guy failed to show for test drive. Bride walked out of store after 50 minutes likely never to return. Placed emergency plan B backup call to store. They are expected at our house in 30 minutes. If they don't show, plan B may be in the toaster.

rbaker2 | 19. November 2014

I originally ordered an X, but when I test drove a MS I ordered one immediately. (I got notification just today that production on it has started for estimated 12/5/14 delivery.) I'm really glad I decided to get the S. We'll see, when my X comes in ?2016, if I keep it or trade it in for the X.

Bob

georgehawley.fl.us | 19. November 2014

Plan B approved! Will complete the lease process in another day or two and anxiously await the arrival of red MS85D next Feb. or March. I think I will call her "Avis". After all, it will be a rental and kind of sounds like a California girl. Exciting!

vandacca | 19. November 2014

@georgehawley Don't get too attached to "Avis" or you may need to rename her to "Hertz" when the Model-X comes out. ;)

babstude | 19. November 2014

ha ha ha - OMG it "hertz" that the MX is out now and wow it would have been way better for me that this MS

Keven | 19. November 2014

Congratulations, @georgehawley! Please keep those of us who must wait posted as plans become realized and help keep our own delays more tolerable.

It's tempting to borrow your plan-must remain patient.

georgehawley.fl.us | 19. November 2014

Thanks all.

Old age is a contributor to my hastening the Tesla experience instead of just sitting on my MX reservation.
Tempus fugit.

Hertz is a nonstarter as a name. Could tell you an old minstrel show joke but not politically correct unless on PBS.

MX will be called "Nik", I think.

Grins coming "soon".

jjs | 19. November 2014

@vandacca - Funny! :)

@george - Congrats.
1) Enjoy.
2) Smile.
3) Kiss, she who must be obeyed.
4) Repeat

ian t.wa.us | 19. November 2014

Excellent George! Glad to hear plan B is a go!

georgehawley.fl.us | 20. November 2014

@jjs: I like your algorithm.

Update: changed my mind. Leased a silver one instead. Delivery in Feb. it says but you never know.
Maybe I'll just call it Silver instead. Hi ho Silver, away..

Got so excited I ordered it twice by mistake. Now show three cars on my dashboard and I am out $10K already and still no Tesla. These guys aren't in Nigeria, are the Year?

They tried to sell me an inventory car. They only had one equipped with autopilot hardware but the price was not attractive and it was grey.

sbeggs | 20. November 2014

@georgehawley,

Call the new one "Herz".

georgehawley.fl.us | 20. November 2014

@sbeggs: thanks for the laugh.

I just noticed "are the Year" in my post above instead of "are they". The beginnings of artificial intelligence...

toby_wan_kenoby | 21. November 2014

Model 3 is at least 5 years out. 2 years is a grand elusion. In 2 years they will not even begin to have enough batteries.
If it takes them 3 years for the Model X, which sits on the same base as the Model S, to go from design study to production then with all there is to the Model 3 it will be a long time.

My best guess is Dec 2019 for the start of Model 3 deliveries.

vandacca | 21. November 2014

I agree with @toby_wan_kenoby. The roll-out will be:
- Jan 2016: Announce Model 3 prototype, and announce availability as January 2017
- Sept 2016: Announce first delay to August 2017
- Mar 2017: Announce second delay to 3Q 2018
- Apr 2018: Announce third delay to 1Q 2019.
- Nov 2018: Alphas roll off the assembly line
- Jan 2019: Betas roll off the assembly line
- Mar 2019: Start very limited roll-out
- June 2019: Ramp up production, still very limited supplies
- Dec 2019: Walk into a Tesla store and drive away with a Model 3

Red Sage ca us | 21. November 2014

The decidedly non-pessimistic incredibly unapologetic thoroughly non-delayed sincerely optimistic certified appreciative fanboy Tesla Motors release schedule for Generation III:

January 2016 - Display of Model ≡ at NAIAS.
March 2016 - Official Model ≡ Test Ride Event.
March 2016 - Accept Signature Reservations for Model ≡.
July 2016 - Accept General Reservations for Model ≡.
April 2017 - Model ≡ Design Studio opens for Reservation Holders.
June 2017 - Automotive magazines publish reviews of Model ≡.
July 2017 - Deliveries of Tesla Model ≡ Signature edition.
July 2017 - Open Model ≡ Design Studio to the public.
August 2018 - Granted license to print money.

Brian H | 21. November 2014

From the POV of the ROW, making valuable assets is far superior to printing money, which adds nothing.

georgehawley.fl.us | 22. November 2014

@toby: Your guess will trigger plan C, if it holds true. I prefer not to elaborate on that plan at the moment but putting air in my bride's bicycle tires is one component. If you would like to guess again, it would be OK with me.
I can't refute Elon's statement that it "bloody hard" to manufacture a new automobile. I've never tried it although I did help rebuild a motor scooter engine when I was 13. Maybe I could help with Model ≡

Brian H | 23. November 2014

toby;
elusion is not a word. The rest of your post is an illusion, too.

EVolution | 23. November 2014

I'm 27 y.o. and I'm holding my $150,000 stocks to buy a MX and I'm getting eager. I cannot afford the depreciation of buying and reselling a MS for 2 years but my Corolla '93 is getting out of shape. Only 65 000 miles on it but still working fine, I don't think she'll live long enough to get me to Model 3, but with my 18 months old and 3 weeks old babies and the 100 pounds Weimaraner I need some space for the weekend when we go to the country house and we need it fast.

georgehawley.fl.us | 23. November 2014

@EVolution: you are doing well at your age. You have some heavy responsibilities that auger for caution. You would be better off to wait for the Tesla, I think. You might think about trading the Toyota for a Honda Oddysey, maybe a couple of years old to reduce the cash requirement. The Honda is by far the safest minivan in existence which is paramount for you. It has ample room for your crew and gets decent gas mileage. Don't know what your portfolio of stocks contain. The market is peaking now and in general this might be a time to trim a little and take some profits but there are tax consequences to think about. That's a very personal decision.
You can dump the Honda for the MX when it shows up. You might get $15K to help do the deed.
I have 50 years on you. Waiting for a Tesla is much more of a burden for me.
Gosh, this is beginning to sound like a Dear Abby column...

Brian H | 23. November 2014

Shop for a used/inventory MS, "make do" with that till the M3 or MX makes sense, and trade it in. Load up on some TSLA; there will be big action when the MX and GF are realities.

Red Sage ca us | 23. November 2014

EV, do what George said. These days the Odyssey is the only Honda vehicle I can recommend to people. You will enjoy the Model X much more, no doubt... Though you may miss the cupholders.

PXChanel | 23. November 2014

@Evolution: Have you considered a VW Jetta Sportwagon TDI? As a soccer mom waiting for my Model X, I really do love driving my 2010 sportwagon tdi. I get 50 mpg highway and have plenty if trunk space for our crew. I decided to keep it even after I get my Model X, hopefully sometime in Q4 2015, because we don't have many charge stations near us.

PXChanel | 23. November 2014

continued: and VW Jetta is a fun drive, also good car to pass on to teenage child bc TDI's last forever, This a Tesla Model X forum and I am nostalgic about my VW already, even though my Model X hasn't come in! I hope Tesla delivers on their promise soon otherwise I might have to start considering other VW e options!

jjs | 24. November 2014

@EV - With all due respect and deference to those well meaning posts offering you advice, I don't see where you were asking for any?

So I will ask. Would you like some advice? :)

***************************

Please note: He is 27, has $150,000 in stock and goes to the "country house" on weekends. Um...why did we assume he needs our advice? Perhaps the advice should be flowing the other way. :)

georgehawley.fl.us | 24. November 2014

@jjs: come to think of it you have an excellent point. When I was 27, we had 2 kids, lived in a 2 BR garden apt. with no AC in NJ, and were still making payments on a 4 year-old Ford station wagon, black with no AC. And i didn't want any advice.

georgehawley.fl.us | 02. Dezember 2014

Plan B progress: order confirms tomorrow for late Feb. delivery of MS85D. Tesla must have more than 12,000 orders in hand for MS along with maybe 30,000 MX reservations. Lots of future business.

georgehawley.fl.us | 03. Dezember 2014

Now in the production queue, whatever that means.

jjs | 03. Dezember 2014

george - It means that you think it is going to be done soon so you wait for some communication from Tesla. When no communication is forthcoming you call. It takes 12 calls to finally get you connected to the right DS (Delivery Specialist). Your interaction with them is stellar. You can tell they really care and want you to be happy. They promise to get you more information regarding your car.

At this point it will go one of two ways
A) You have a seasoned DS and they are careful not to set expectations too high. They give you a general delivery date range and let you know that they want your car to be perfect and that although they don't expect delays, it can happen. You are happy!
B) You have a brand new DS and they tell you the exact date and time your car will be delivered. There will be no HINT of anything other than an exact delivery date/time. You are elated!

Regardless of either route you go down, A or B, it will quickly converge back to the same route. You will try to contact your wonderful, cheerful, helpful DS only to be met with silence. You are now a little annoyed. You persist. Silence. Now your annoyed, concerned and quickly headed to aggravated. You persist with "enthusiasm". Finally you hear back from a new, very friendly, helpful DS. You inquire about what happened to your old DS and they inform you that that person has been with Tesla over 3 months now and therefore is considered one of the old guard and has been promoted 4 times since you last spoke with them. (It is a fast growing company. :) )

Your DS, almost assuredly new, tells you the exact date and time of your delivery. Unfortunately it has no resemblance to either the range given by a seasoned DS or the exact date/time your newby DS gave you. You sigh. You breath deep. You sigh again. You want to yell at them but they are just so damn nice you can't. Instead you ask them to please go back and confirm the date/time.

Then you take one of two paths.
A) The friendly, cheerful, helpful DS responds confidently that your delivery date/time has been confirmed and you should count on it 100%. You smile with the confidence that comes with being misled once again without knowing it and, well, this is not going to turn out so well.
or
B) The friendly, cheerful, helpful DS responds confidently that your delivery date/time has been confirmed and you should count on it 100%. You smile, a wry smile, and ask them if it is POSSIBLE that there might be delays. You list the things that might go wrong, parts delays, QA issues, shipping due to availability of transport, shipping due to weather, force majeure (they won't know what that is) or acts of God. They get an inkling that you might not believe their Pollyannaish assessment and go back to re-verify.

It takes a few days but when then finally get back to you they tell you that although your delivery date you were given is still 10 days out by a miracle not only is your car done but has been shipped and is currently outside your front door! They are beaming they are so happy that you have your car and they "beat" the third "firm" delivery date they gave you.

You then inform them that you are on vacation in China and now one is home!

Hope I didn't ruin the surprise. :)

vandacca | 03. Dezember 2014

Speaking from experience @jjs? :)

jjs | 03. Dezember 2014

Somewhat, yes. Somewhat just scraps from other people's experience.

Just thought it was kinda funny! :)

georgehawley.fl.us | 03. Dezember 2014

@jjs: thanks, but I am fully prepared for the entire process. I have been through training with the sales department. This occurred because I stupidly ordered the same car twice. The local sales guy promptly entered a cancel order into the "system". Three weeks later, one day before automatic confirmation, one of the orders was shown as cancelled. In the interim I made a couple of calls to the Corporate Sales office. The cancellation was confirmed both times, though they were hazy on the process. I'm getting the impression that, growing so fast, Tesla has a lot of new people. The $2500 deposit has not shown up in my account yet.

But it's all OK. Plan B is now out of my hands. I have done the planning. I have issued the order to proceed. The ball is in Tesla's court. I don't care if they fail to refund the extra deposit. I will simply give them less money when the car shows up. That used to be late February but now is given as March. I don't care about that either. I have formulated plan B1: if the MS delivery date slips so much that the MX shows up within 3 months, I will simply exercise the escape clause. Either way is OK.

Now I simply wait for the call: "You may drive to Tampa and pick up your car." I intend to avoid contact with the DS group. I will ignore all further communications until I get the call.

ian t.wa.us | 03. Dezember 2014

Well said jjs! Haha! Seriously funny and pretty damn accurate from the many posts I've read.

Cheers!

Brian H | 03. Dezember 2014

All in error. "In the queue" means nada, like the older "sourcing parts". It's a catchall pot that every confirmed order starts out in. The first real message is "begun production". That may last until months after you've taken delivery.

georgehawley.fl.us | 04. Dezember 2014

@Brian: I believe " In the queue " is a signal to me from Tesla. It is kind of like a religious thing, like finding a fallen maple leaf with an oil stain that gives the impression of a messianic silhouette. A message has been sent and received: " in the queue ". Sometime "soon" I will get the call to go to a wholly Tesla place where I will be handed the fob to cardom. Hosanna!

jjs | 04. Dezember 2014

I feel a lighting storm coming soon to FL.

Red Sage ca us | 04. Dezember 2014

The Tesla is strong with this one...

jjs | 04. Dezember 2014

A Tesla Coil might be his only defense!

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