Q3 earnings

Q3 earnings

when is Q3 announcement?

DCTesla | 15. Oktober 2013

November 4. Sorry but if you don't know when earnings are announced, you shouldn't own the common stock. Then again, it's always better to be lucky than good ...

Roamer@AZ USA | 15. Oktober 2013

Good and Lucky is even better.

Car t man | 16. Oktober 2013

Well? Place your bets for expected figures if you dare :)

jeremythehunt | 16. Oktober 2013

I must have missed the part where the OP said he a shareholder. Maybe he's just curious how the company is doing. Probably wasn't looking for snide comments about a simple question though.

celtrog | 16. Oktober 2013

arrogance like ignorance is bliss

redacted | 16. Oktober 2013

"if you don't know when earnings are announced, you shouldn't own the common stock"

only true if you live from earnings report to earnings report.

ausdma | 16. Oktober 2013

So true. I tend to invest for longer terms and surf the waves.

mrspaghetti | 16. Oktober 2013

@4rhansen Good and Lucky is even better.

Actually, 'Lucky' makes 'Good' irrelevant.

mjs | 16. Oktober 2013

DC - That's not nice or fair.

DCTesla | 16. Oktober 2013

Fair enough mjs. That did come off harsh but I find myself concerned for those who invest in individual securities without (apparently) doing the appropriate amount of due diligence, analysis and planning ... the eTrade baby and CNBC have convinced us that we can all be stock jockeys ... just like betting at the track.

IMHO better to leave it to the professionals. It's fun being an investor on the way up but it's rarely great in the long term as periods like 2000-2002 taught us as did 2008.

Now let's get back to talking about how awesome this car is!

brandtlings | 16. Oktober 2013

DC, I think the Nov 4 is a Nasdaq best estimate... I haven't seen an official announcement from Tesla yet.

See the note *at the bottom of the page...
(but you knew that)

oildeathspiral | 16. Oktober 2013


I have yet to see Tesla announce the date. If you're going by Yahoo or other sources, it's been incorrect for several quarters until they pick up the correct date AFTER Tesla posts it.

mjs | 16. Oktober 2013

DC - Agreed, no hard feelings.

hillcountryfun | 16. Oktober 2013

Car t man:

Q3 Model S Deliveries: 7,560
Q3 Gross Margin: 26%

Nov 5th opening stock price: $201.00

Fredlambert | 16. Oktober 2013

I’ll be more realistic here:

Q3 Model S Deliveries: 6,300
Q3 Gross Margin: 21%

At this point there is no way to predict the stock price.

Brian H | 16. Oktober 2013

The gross margin is likely to be much lower than that. This is the Q which is ramping up to reach the economies of scale sufficient to compensate for losing the ZEV credits, and getting proper volume discounts from suppliers, etc. Don't expect to see 25% margins until the END of Q4.

Also, note that projecting 25% to Gen III production is not valid. TM has never committed to that, AFAIK.

July10Models | 16. Oktober 2013

Gross margin at 20%, 7400 ModelS delivered. Announcement of ModelX beta vehicle.

NomoDinos | 16. Oktober 2013

Q3 MS deliveries: 7,100
Q3 Gross Margin 22%
Nov 5th stock price high: 203. GUARANTEED!*

(*completely not guaranteed)

Fredlambert | 17. Oktober 2013

I can't see how Tesla could report more than 7,000 deliveries like you guys are predicting. If they were to smash their own estimate (5,500 I think) like that, they would have to give an heads up to the market first.

Jolinar | 17. Oktober 2013

@Brian H
don't forget that gross margin is computed as average throught whole Q. So it is possible we will see 25% on paper without ZEV kredits in Q1 2014, but I still hope to see it in Q4 this year.

So my guess is:
Q3 MS deliveries: 6500-7000 (+ serious number of vehicles in transport)
Q3 gross margin: 20-22% (don't forget, it's average for whole quarter)

quote from Q2 letter: "We expect Q3 non-GAAP gross margin will remain in the low 20% range"

Fredlambert | 17. Oktober 2013

I really hope you guys are right, but I think you are setting yourself for disappointment. I hope you prove me wrong.

3 weeks to go, Solar City just announced that they will release their earnings on November 6th. Last time Tesla did it at the same time.

eddiemoy | 17. Oktober 2013

think the average weekly build number was ~650, so 12 weeks give you 7800 vehicles.

i'm guessing they will surprise on the margin, maybe hit the 25% early.

also progress on the model x would be great, maybe announce they will be able to start delivering in june 2014!

eddiemoy | 17. Oktober 2013

oh, by the way, with all the recent downgrades and sell ratings right before earnings, i'm thinking someone wants to get in before the stock goes nuts again after earnings report.

Fredlambert | 17. Oktober 2013

It’s the first time I hear of 650 cars in production a week. Where is it from?

eddiemoy | 17. Oktober 2013

@Fredlambert actually looks like most current figure is over 700 a week... but i'm using a conservative average. look for the VIN tracking by a owner on this board.

Fredlambert | 17. Oktober 2013

I often look a the VIN tracking by Craig and it's a great tool, but it's far from being an indicator of the production numbers and not even close to deliveries.

It doesn't account for clean VIN, loaners, cars for test drive and showrooms, cars with a VIN assigned but still not in prod, cars still in transit etc.

Mathew98 | 17. Oktober 2013

I want some of whatever you folks are smoking. That's some seriously powerfully puff...

Even if TM is assigning 1000 VIN a week it doesn't translate to 100% production for that week. You do realize there a 5 - 12 weeks lag from VIN issues to delivery to each buyer depending on the final destination.

TM would surpass expectation by 20% even if Q3 deliveries were 6000 units.

I'm sure that the stock price would be bid up to $200 before the Q3 earnings call. Just chill on the kool aid in the mean time...

oildeathspiral | 17. Oktober 2013

Now it's official:

PALO ALTO, CA--(Marketwired - Oct 17, 2013) - Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) announced today that it will post its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2013, after market close on Tuesday, November 5, 2013. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release via Marketwire containing a link to the third quarter 2013 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Standard Time (5:30pm Eastern Standard Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.

Brian H | 18. Oktober 2013

Sales Q3 6600
Gross Margin 14%

Stock will bounce over $200 the next session.

uselesslogin | 18. Oktober 2013

Came here to say Nov 5th is the date, they just officially announced it yesterday.

6,500 deliveries
$0.40 non-GAAP
$0.13 GAAP

JZ13 | 18. Oktober 2013

6,900 deliveries
23% margin

dirk.saenen | 18. Oktober 2013

You will all be disappointed with delivery number.

Lot's of VIN's have been issued for EU-cars, little have been produced in Q3, let aside delivered in EU in Q3.

(not mentioning loaners.)

772 | 19. Oktober 2013

deliveries: 8100
margins: 31%

TSLA $290++

hsadler | 19. Oktober 2013

deliveries: 5900
margins: 25.000000000001 %

TSLA $235

Brian H | 19. Oktober 2013

No way TM hits the 25% gross margin yet. Maybe late Q4.

Benz | 19. Oktober 2013

My predictions for Q3 2013:

Model S deliveries: 6,500
Gross Margin: 15%

TSLA $200+ (and new all-time high on November 6th, 2013)

I would love to make higher predictions, but I prefer to be realistic. It would be absolutely fantastic if Tesla Motors present higher numbers than I have predicted, but I sure hope that they do that.

lbjack | 19. Oktober 2013

Doesn't Tesla have a policy of low-balling their projections?

dtesla | 19. Oktober 2013

Of those that have predicted prices > $200.... how many have purchased additional shares? Not a bad profit for < 3 weeks.

NomoDinos | 19. Oktober 2013

dtesla - I maxed out what I was willing to spend on stocks when the price dropped a couple weeks back, now I'm just going to hang out and see what Nov 5th brings :)

772 | 19. Oktober 2013

i'm waiting for a pullback ahead of earnings; perhaps another stud analyst will give it a sell rating

skymaster | 20. Oktober 2013

When I took the tour on 9/11, the production "goal" was 600 per week. They were running 2 shifts per day with a goal of 60 cars per shift. I don't know how the production could have increased much in the last 5 weeks. The guide told me that it will be difficult to increase production from 600 to 800 cars per week.

Mathew98 | 20. Oktober 2013

I am fresh out of koolaid, anyone have extra to share?

My crystal ball informed me Q3 = 6125 and TSLA will hit 208 before profit taking after announcement.

TSLAholic | 20. Oktober 2013

And that profit taking may prove to be yet another buying opportunity.

Benz | 21. Oktober 2013

One of the most interesting points that I am looking forward to hear Elon Musk speak about (during the Q3 2013 Earnings Conference Call) is his view on the current "production constraints" situation. During the Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call in August 2013 he mentioned that they would have solved those "production constraints" issues in Q2 2014, but I personally think that they can have them solved sooner. Therefore, I would like to hear is current view on this situation.

If they will have solved them before the start of 2014, then the total number of Model S sales in 2014 will be at least 40,000 (even a total of 50,000 would be a realistic prediction).

2050project | 24. Oktober 2013

Here is the ultimate analysis and prediction I've seen to date:

Brian H | 24. Oktober 2013
RZitrin1 | 25. Oktober 2013

I have been a stockholder since early 2011 - enough to cash out some to pay for my Signature and ride with the rest - and I have NO IDEA when earnings reports are issued. I have been in for the long haul, not to worry about blips caused by short-term reactions to earnings reports.

Al1 | 25. Oktober 2013

And I've been late. Looking forward for Tesla stock "correction". I'll be glad to correct it in the right direction.

2050project | 26. Oktober 2013

Looks like Nov. 5th, you can listen in to Q3 earnings here (see top of page):