Now that the trilogy of 5 announcements have been made and we are in Elon's "quiet period" I started to wonder what will impact the stock next? Here are some thoughts:
- Euro deliveries in July. Even though this is public knowledge, I think the press will be all over it in Europe. It should be minor news here as casual observers may not be aware of Tesla's preparations for new markets. I think the delivery event will impact the stock positively.
- Q2 results. Investors will be hoping the losses won't be too bad. Margin is the number I'm most interested in as I am expecting Elon will be on the way to hitting his Q4 target of 25%. Guidance may yield a positive surprise.
- New "Development" business. That is the term Tesla uses for selling it's battery packs and drivetrains to other manufacturers. There was a rumor last week that GM was possibly negotiating a deal with Tesla. Tesla had an exclusive rights contract with Mercedes that expired in June so they are now free to sell their products to whomever they wish. I strongly believe that this is a HUGE revenue generator for Tesla in years to come as I don't see the other guys matching Tesla's battery range for the next several years.
- NTHSA safety test results. The NTHSA will be crash-testing the Model S in the fall. Tesla claims the Model S is the only car in the world to be 5-star safety rated in every category (side-impact, rollover, front-impact, etc). I think when the test results are announced this will really move the stock upward.
After these possible announcements I think the next biggest is Q4 margins - did they hit 25%? Also 2014 guidance on Model S delivery numbers. I don't think the first Asia deliveries will be a big mover on the stock because the number of cars sold there is likely to be noticeable smaller than US and Europe.