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State of U.S. PEV Sales

State of U.S. PEV Sales

It's virtually all Tesla. That's all you really need to know. The rest of this post is just adding a bit of context.

U.S. EV Sales June 2019
June 2018 Sales: 25,029
June 2019 Sales: 37,582
Change:+50.4%

Tesla Sales June 2018
Model 3: 21,225
Model S:1,750
Model X: 2,725
Total Sales: 25,700
% of All EV,PHEV, Hybrid Sales: 68.3%
% of EV Sales Only: 84%

How are the Tesla killers doing? DOA. June Sales:
Chevrolet Bolt 1,659
Nissan LEAF 1,156
BMW i3 473
Volkswagen e-Golf 366
Audi e-tron 726
Jaguar I-Pace u/a (228 in May)
smart ED 74
Honda Clarity 52
Hyundai Kona 116
Fiat 500e 25
Kia Niro 49
Kia Soul 0

If you scratch your head over why so many attack Tesla constantly and usually unfairly, these numbers tell the story. Without Tesla there is no EV revolution. Chevy is discontinuing the Bolt. The Audi e-tron has already been recalled and it's just out. The Jag I-Pace is going nowhere. Neither the e-tron or the I-Pace is as advanced as the Model S was when it was first introduced in 2012. The rest of the auto industry is 10 years behind Tesla and consumers know it.

To be accurate, Model S and Model X sales are down over last year for the same periods, not horribly, but down. Why? The Model 3 is obviously cannibalizing the MS some. There is no question about that. There is also the refresh issue. Everyone in the Tesla community knows yet another refresh for the Model S/X is coming this fall, a substantial one. Tesla upgraded the suspensions and battery management increasing range with the Raven refresh this spring, and sales have picked back up some, but the real update with possibly even a new exterior look, comes in September. The Tesla community knows this and are waiting to order. I know I am.

Galileo Russell, home office Tesla analyst extraordinare, recently attended some kind of innovators conference for autos in San Francisco. He left bitterly disappointed in the attitude he saw in legacy auto execs. They're still wishing EVs would go away, are in outright denial or believe they have plenty of time to adjust and drop electric motors in the cars they already make. Gally described them as lost in the past and clueless about the future.

IOW, the key to the kingdom is still held by Tesla. Outfits like Rivian aren't up and running yet. The legacy automakers are so far behind Tesla in EV technology they are in danger of not catching up before it's too late.

With all that said, the truth is Tesla is still carrying the banner. Big oil et al are convinced that if they can kill Tesla they can still save their fossil fuel empire.

This is why we're seeing the attacks on Tesla ratchet up the more successful the company becomes.

What the old school doesn't realize is it's really already too late to pull a Preston Tucker move on Tesla. Even if they were to succeed at siccing the SEC on Tesla or some other subterfuge that damages the company to the point it's no longer financially viable, a big tech company like Apple or Google would buy the pieces and put it back together. If Silicon Valley passed, the Chinese would do it.

I wish legacy car makers would get their act together. The rub is it becomes clearer every day they're incapable of catching up and would rather play ostrich anyway.

Tesla-David | 03. Juli 2019

@dmm1240 as usual great analysis, thanks! I totally agree with your conclusions.

TeslaTap.com | 03. Juli 2019

@dmm1240 - Hit in on the nail :)

Considering buyers except for GM and Tesla get a $5625 tax incentive, it's all the more amazing that no others have figured out how to compete. Tesla provided the complete plan 8 years ago, yet nothing comparable (product or charging network). And Tesla doesn't even advertise. You'd think someone would get the wakeup call, but easy to see how "ICE has always worked great in the past, why change" mentality is rampant in the industry.

TeslaTap.com | 03. Juli 2019

...tax incentive advantage over Tesla, ....

jordanrichard | 03. Juli 2019

When did GM announce they were killing off the Bolt. I know they are axing the Volt.

BuffaloBillsFan | 03. Juli 2019

Thanks for a well-reasoned post. I have a Tesla, and will likely buy nothing other than Tesla in the future unless the dinosaurs wake up and realize that the era of the ICE is just about over . . . Give me a real alternative to Tesla, and I will look. None of the currently produced EVs have even a remote chance to compete with Tesla right now.

dmm1240 | 03. Juli 2019

I may have been guilty of a typo, Jordan. Sorry bout dat.

dmm1240 | 03. Juli 2019

I may have been guilty of a typo, Jordan. Sorry bout dat.

greg | 03. Juli 2019

@TexasBob did a few updated Flourish graphs of sales of US EVs since 2011.
This one shows there is no contest sales wise with Tesla in the US.BEV market:

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/460528/

I also found this one here:

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/462146/

Which shows sales of EVs in the US as vehicles sold by Average Selling Price $ (ASP$).

Based on that Telsas cumulative Sales $ is massively in front with over $30 Billion worth of sales of EVs since 2011, the next best is the Nissan Leaf sales at under $5B.

Thing is for Tesla at a rough 20% Gross profits [$6 Billion of Gross Profits@20% GP], Telsa is making more in **Gross profits** from its $30B in EV sales over that time than all the other makers COMBINED are actually making Sales! [And heaven knows what those guys Gross Profits are - if any].

This is exactly like how Apple used to make 80% of the Profits off Smartphones, leaving the other 20% to be spread over all the other brands [Samsung et al].

Not forgetting of course that Tesla's customers over that same time have been able to claim up to just under $3 Billion of Federal Tax Credits on those 450,000 US EV sales [up to end of June 2019]. Let alone state and local rebates on their purchases on top of those.

If it wasn't for ZEV compliance rules in some states, forcing all the others to sell EVs to offsets their ICE sales,Tesla & Nissan might well have the market to themselves.

jimglas | 04. Juli 2019

well said

Tesla-David | 04. Juli 2019

Thanks @greg nice graphics and analysis.

Roger1 | 07. Juli 2019

Tesla has done a brilliant job in the US creating the modern battery electric car and charging network. Unfortunately, the lead in EV deployment is moving to China and Europe where the general public and government policy support electric vehicles.
Battery supply seems to be an issue particularly for legacy automakers entering the EV market. With the resulting constrained vehicle supply, it makes sense to concentrate efforts in the markets where purchasers and government are most receptive to EVs. Tesla has the US EV market in its grip which probably makes it even less appealing to legacy car makers just beginning to offer electric cars.

greg | 07. Juli 2019

@Roger1

At the rate the Big 2.5 are going, they'll all end up Chinese owned "brands" - with a long, storied & glorious future - behind them. Just as the UK once mighty car brands have.

The European manufacturers are likely heading the same way. While I doubt China need these brands as well, but, the Chinese, will like a big game hunter, end up with the mounted heads of its former conquests. They'll be stuffed and mounted on a Chinese "vanity" wall of hunting trophies somewhere in the Peoples Palace of Progress or whatever they call it then.

I suspect there is too much nationalistic pride, and governmental "support" for the Europeans to "do an Airbus" to create a global super-brand with EVs to take on China.

Longer Term Tesla is likely to exit the car business once it has the battery tech perfected, it won't need to make cars - its mission will be better served making batteries and providing energy storage and management for the entire planet. Cars are a means to and end, not an end in themselves.

But we can enjoy the electric ride for now. Anyway.

Of course, we need to realise we are basically in the latter stages of the 1930s, knowing vaguely that there is a future conflict coming that will redefine the rest of the course of our history. But not knowing exactly when or how that will occur.

This coming conflict will take many forms, but the reality is the climate and related environmental issues will be the dominant force that determines all our fates together - whether we like it or not or whether we close our borders i nthe meantime.
CO2 and related climate issues respect no national boundaries, nor does sea level rise.