Q3 delivery estimate for 2019

Q3 delivery estimate for 2019

Guestimate of how many cars tesla will make this quarter!

jebinc | 07. August 2019

Less than Second Quarter.

Magic 8 Ball | 07. August 2019

@jebinc Why is your guess less? We see transporters full going to the shipping docks in SF all day long, everyday.

jebinc | 07. August 2019

@Magic 8 Ball - I figure there was a bunch of 3Q orders pulled into 2Q to beat the US rebate halving. Even with the price reductions on 7/15, I don't think that will be enough. If a real (not parlor trick) enhanced summon or v10 is released this month, I might revise my forecast - but I doubt either will be (released in August).

ReD eXiLe ms us | 07. August 2019

aaron85: Title speaks of Q3 Deliveries, while your initial posts speaks of Q3 Production. Those are different subjects. Please clarify, preferably by including your OWN estimates for each.

jebinc | 07. August 2019

@ReD eXiLe ms us - I think "Delivery" is the correct measure, as it's what the street measures. Filling parking lots with inventory (production) is less important - especially when the concern of late (besides paint and overall quality) is "Demand".

Magic 8 Ball | 07. August 2019

Hard to tell what the question is without a question mark but I am referring to the comment in the post, if it was intended to be a question. There is no evidence of production slowing down and looks to be increasing to satisfy overseas demand. It is exciting to see transporter after transporter going to the docks. I used to see transporters with cars of all colors now there are a lot more filled with same color (more white than other colors) Looks like a new FUDster in the mix.

kevin_rf | 07. August 2019

A fair amount (7k) of Q2 delivery were cars produced in Q1. That buffer does not exist for Q3. To beat Q2 production will have to increase about 500 cars a week (all lines).

With the Q2 earnings call indication that battery production efficiency has increased, I think they can beat Q2.

Guidance for the year is 360,000 - 400,000, Including S/X they need to deliver 100,000 vehicles to stay on track.

If Gigafactory 2 battery production has not increased, not a chance.

hokiegir1 | 07. August 2019

@jeb - I'm not sure there is a demand concern considering production is still the constraining factor in sales/deliveries as far as (and likely still) the end of Q2 reporting. Remember -- overseas orders still haven't been fully opened for all configurations. They still can't meet demand everywhere yet. I do think it will increase in Q3. I don't know that it will a big jump as they are still working on some logistics that are hindering delivery speed -- but I'd expect low 6 figures for both delivery and production.

raqball | 07. August 2019

I've seen and passed 3 or 4 semis in the past few days on Portland freeways headed North (to Seattle I assume) that were loaded with M3's..... I doubt the Tesla sales centers are packed with cars just sitting on the lots. The last time I went to the Portland store they had a few on hand but most were getting prepped for delivery and their delivery bay was full...

ReD eXiLe ms us | 07. August 2019

jebinc: I'd like the OP to reply, or edit the Title, or edit the OP, so that we can all be speaking on the same subject.

jebinc | 07. August 2019

@Magic 8 Ball - Glad to hear inventory is flowing out of Freemont. Remember, leading up to the end of second quarter, inventory dried up - you couldn't find an inventory M3, other than a few in far away places. A lot of what you are seeing could be going to fill lots (build/replace inventory) and not yet have a customer assigned. For Tesla to grow, prosper and be profitable, they need "Deliveries"

@hokiegir1- Time will tell. I hope you are right.

Magic 8 Ball | 07. August 2019

Tesla manages inventory and revenue to manage the market (they do this very well). They held back on FSD for 3K until the day after Q2 end. I have a theory about what Q2 was all about and it has to do with JB leaving, FSD for 3K, and expected impact it would have on market. If the quarter and news is going to be perceived as bad a bit badder is not noticed. They did this sort of thing when "full" tax credit was about to expire. They are good at the game.

FISHEV | 07. August 2019

“I figure there was a bunch of 3Q orders pulled into 2Q to beat the US rebate halving.”@jebinc

More push by Tesla after the unpleasant surprise of $700M loss to try and make Q2 a profitable one. It ended with a $408M loss in Q2 which was “more than expected”. Not sure if “expected” was a number that was based upon the $700M loss. I thought Tesla was trying for Q1 2019 profit.

“Even with the price reductions on 7/15, I don't think that will be enough. If a real (not parlor trick) enhanced summon or v10 is released this month”

I doubt there’s any significant demand waiting for Tesla software updates before buying. The steadily reducing Federal credits are a real issue especially in the more “working man’s” priced Model 3. I know I purchased in Q2 to get that extra $1,750 in tax credits I would have lost by waiting.

Pent up demand in EU and China is likely Teslas best hope for increased sales. Likely easy to modify NA Model 3’s for EU market. Not sure about the China plug which is different than US and EU CCS2/Plug 1/2 respectively which is easy swap.

Joshan | 07. August 2019

I think Fish pulls all his info from a very specific place.... his arse

aaron85 | 07. August 2019

Wallstreet looks at how many are delivered, thats why the question with respect to it. It will be great to see if Tesla beat its Q2 numbers, in the fed credit of 1875 can also convert whole bunch of borderline tesla buyers! My own guestimate is 90000-95000!!

jebinc | 07. August 2019

@aaron85 - Thanks for clearing that up for some.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 07. August 2019

aaron85: Tesla noted they will no longer publicize how many cars are 'in transit' during the transition from one quarter to the next. You still didn't explain why the text of your OP refers to how many cars Tesla 'will make' in Q3 2019. Thanks for clarifying that you want estimates of how many cars Tesla will Deliver during Q3 2019.

Tesla will likely match or exceed the quantity of vehicles Delivered in Q2 2019 during Q3 2019. It would be difficult to match/exceed the percentage increase from Q1 2019 to Q2 2019 from Q2 2019 to Q3 2019. It is still possible though.

mrburke | 07. August 2019


aaron85 | 13. August 2019

Revised guestimate: 95000-100,000 !!!

mrburke | 13. August 2019

@aaron85 - 96173 is already taken. :-)

aaron85 | 13. August 2019

@mrburke okay except that number :) [95000 - 100000] excluding 96173

kevin_rf | 13. August 2019


aaron85 | 14. August 2019

@kevin_rf -> if only Q3 estimate is meaning of life!

Kary993 | 14. August 2019

90,000+ but not 100,000

kevin_rf | 14. August 2019

To meet guidance 360,000 for the year, they have to deliver an additional 202,000 cars by the end of the year (Q3, Q4).

They produced 164,000 vehicles in Q1,Q2 with 87,000 produced in Q2. To meet guidance they have to ramp up an additional 13,000 cars a quarter, 1,000 cars a week.

StanESHR | 30. August 2019

That sounds like a job for GF3. :)

82bert | 30. August 2019

I thought they track by deliveries, not produced cars.

ElectricAlex | 30. August 2019

Deliveries are tracked by, well deliveries. So Tesla has to deliver to customers to count, whereas ICE mfgrs have to deluver to dealers. So all those cars on lots are”delivered”.


bj | 30. August 2019

“Guesstimate” is such a nonsense word. Something is either a guess or an estimate. It can’t be both.

ElectricAlex | 30. August 2019

@bj not sure you are aware but:

Camdbrige definition:
a calculation of the size or amount of something when you do not know all the facts

Bighorn | 30. August 2019


greg | 30. August 2019

China won't add much to Q3 numbers.

RHD deliveries to UK and AUS/NZ continue at pace. AUS/NZ are just now getting deliveries of cars made around 11 July 2019 (first 2 weeks of Q3). So thats how long the "delivery cycle" is for APAC right now [some 7+ weeks].

The UK has a solid 2 month head start on APAC RHD deliveries and is steaming ahead few of which counted for Q2. But has no doubt ramped up in Q3. APAC RHDs will add a little to that number.

So I reckon, take Q2s numbers, add 20% and call it a number. So thats about 104,400 in my book.

walnotr | 30. August 2019

Bighorn is always right! :-)

ElectricAlex | 30. August 2019

Giga 3 q3 model 3 builds to date: 1. (That we know of)

bj | 31. August 2019

@ElectricAlex - That’s an estimate. When one knows all the facts, it’s the answer.

ElectricAlex | 31. August 2019

@bj not an estimate, there was one Shanghai Giga built Model 3 on display at WAIC yesterday.

It was likely largely hand assembled using a lot of glue, and probably will not drive.

82bert | 31. August 2019

More trolls. Awesome.

capt.bcuthbert | 05. September 2019

I ordered a tesla m3p gray on white. on August 23 2019 Still nothing..

WoodworkerII | 11. September 2019

Still waiting, ordered 8/24/19

kevin_rf | 12. September 2019

The panic knee jerk reaction end of quarter crazy Eddy sell everything including the kitchen sink fire sales do not seem to be happening.

I wonder if that means they are on track and production is up and humming in plaid. They don't feel they need to panic.

To meet guidance, they must on track for 100,000 plus cars for the quarter and looking at being in the black. It would also mean they have been averaging close to 7000 Model 3's a week.

... That or bankwrupcy ...

mathcr49 | 12. September 2019

Ordered a white w/ black interior performance model 8/14 in Florida. No vin yet. Tried to buy an inventory car with no response from our sales person. Is this lack of response due to sales people not getting commissions?