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Model 3 Options - An Analysis / Guess

Model 3 Options - An Analysis / Guess

So I do quite a bit of analysis for future predictions and was tinkering around with what the numbers most likely point towards with what the Model 3 will be released under. Obviously this is just my analysis / guess so take it with a grain of salt but thought I'd share anyway :)

Doing research and comparing real world figures on the Model S and Model X I discovered that the 0-100km/h times seem to be very highly correlated to the mass of the car (which shouldn't really shock anyone) whilst the battery range and thus kWh's was more related to the state of battery technology at the time of car production (eg. 2008 for Roadster, 2012 for Model S/X). This also seems to me to make sense.

So with these observations in mind I estimated that the Model 3 should be ~15% lighter than Model S (if someone has legitimate proof/reasons to adjust this I'm happy to but figured it being 20% smaller I'd stay conservative and say only 15% lighter). I also estimated the likely increase in battery density based off market trends over the past few decades as well as the difference in Roadster and Model S real life figures. Assuming the Model 3 will use ~2017 battery tech it should add another 4-5 years worth of battery efficiency improvements and density increases. As such the following numbers pop out once you also take into account Elon's specification that the base will do "215 miles" or ~345km's.

Model 3 Options:
Model - Range - 0-100km/h Time
40_______345km____5sec
40D______360km____4.7sec
60D______520km____3.8sec
P60D_____475km____2.8sec / 2.6sec (Ludicrous Options)

The 40kWh battery number popped out best given battery improvements and Elon's already stated range. The 60kWh battery number is entirely my creation as given the current Model S/X options it seems that it's usually X as the base size then X+20kWh's as the next step up.

TeslaTap.com | 06. April 2016

Interesting analysis. I expect the performance numbers to be less than you indicated - partly for marketing (to keep the S/X the primary performance choices), but mainly the performance is limited by the pack power output, A 40 or 60 kW battery cannot produce the same power output as a 70/85/90. I realize the lighter car will help, but I a 60kW pack is more likely to be in the low 5 second area the Model 3. I'd be happy to be wrong on this. You can also expect smaller tires on the Model 3 to save weight and cost. This means less friction and performance will suffer some. Time will tell!

Today:
S70 5.5 seconds
S70D 5.2 seconds
S90D 4.2 seconds
P90DL 2.8 seconds

Balistarama | 06. April 2016

Personally it doesn't seem to be in Elon's profile to intentionally hobble a future product just to please other previous owners. He does his best to "help" (see upgrade kits for Roadster or upgrade battery kits for the Model S 40 versions I think it was) but generally speaking he just charges full steam ahead. Make it THE best it can be and don't even dare try and put in planned obsolescence!

Your other point about the wheel base and smaller battery packs not being able to have as much current drawn from them is spot on though I missed that. Unfortunately I don't think there's a way to differentiate that limiting component out from the weight loss effects... so not sure how much it would affect my estimates. Likely as you say though, they'll be lower.

Red Sage ca us | 06. April 2016

Once again...

A 40 kWh capacity battery pack would need to have a reserve area for anti-bricking. So, the usable capacity would be more like 36 kWh. Due to losses in the drivetrain due to friction, that would be reduced further, to around 32.4 kWh. Even if the system were efficient enough to manage 240 Wh per mile while driving, that would only allow a 135 mile range.

Or, to go the opposite direction...

For a 40 kWh battery pack capacity to allow a minimum of a 215 mile range, as stated by Elon Musk during the reveal, the car would have to achieve a 150 Wh per mile average.

By the way? The Tesla Model S 40 had an EPA rated range of 139 miles... Probably due to the battery pack being a software limited 60 kWh battery pack. So, literally there was a 33% 'Reserve Area'...

Nic727 | 06. April 2016

If your guess are all good, I will go with the 60D... Who doesn't want to make 520km on one charge. It's all what I need!