Submitted by Balistarama on 06. April 2016
So I do quite a bit of analysis for future predictions and was tinkering around with what the numbers most likely point towards with what the Model 3 will be released under. Obviously this is just my analysis / guess so take it with a grain of salt but thought I'd share anyway :)
Doing research and comparing real world figures on the Model S and Model X I discovered that the 0-100km/h times seem to be very highly correlated to the mass of the car (which shouldn't really shock anyone) whilst the battery range and thus kWh's was more related to the state of battery technology at the time of car production (eg. 2008 for Roadster, 2012 for Model S/X). This also seems to me to make sense.
So with these observations in mind I estimated that the Model 3 should be ~15% lighter than Model S (if someone has legitimate proof/reasons to adjust this I'm happy to but figured it being 20% smaller I'd stay conservative and say only 15% lighter). I also estimated the likely increase in battery density based off market trends over the past few decades as well as the difference in Roadster and Model S real life figures. Assuming the Model 3 will use ~2017 battery tech it should add another 4-5 years worth of battery efficiency improvements and density increases. As such the following numbers pop out once you also take into account Elon's specification that the base will do "215 miles" or ~345km's.
Model 3 Options:
Model - Range - 0-100km/h Time
P60D_____475km____2.8sec / 2.6sec (Ludicrous Options)
The 40kWh battery number popped out best given battery improvements and Elon's already stated range. The 60kWh battery number is entirely my creation as given the current Model S/X options it seems that it's usually X as the base size then X+20kWh's as the next step up.