I am wondering due to forecast estimates that Tesla did for model 3 if there will be a production shortage of lithium cells due to amount of lithium that can be delivered and speed of producing the cells from raw materials.
Now that pre-orders are way over the roof of their projections, even though giga-factory is operational obviously not fully, can it produce the amount of lithium needed yearly to fulfill orders in a timely fashion?! I'm not worried about
the metal fab at all, but more of this power for the cars.
There is time to get that all together and fix any delays that might occur to arrival of lithium. I don't know how fast the material to battery turnover is.
My guess is they will need to produce 150k cars yrly right off the bat. That's 535 cars a day on a 5 day work week 8hr day or 66 cars a minute or 1.06 car every second.
Best case would be 3 production yrs to fulfill this forward order log in just 2 weeks. I can't imagine what could happen when we get these cars, find out how awesome it is, then nearly 10% of our friends will want one,
10% of those will actually put in an order for one. It could be crazy.
I'm not a battery tech so I have no idea-Anyone out there know?
Quoted from source-
The Gigafactory is set to supply batteries for the 500,000 cars Tesla hopes to produce by the end of the decade, as well as to power homes. The company hopes that by supplying its own batteries it can cut its costs per kilowatt-hour by more than 30 per cent, crucial for the mass-market uptake of electric vehicles.
But that will require secure, long-term supplies of lithium, more than 70 per cent of which is found in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Due to growth in demand for electric batteries, the global lithium market is approaching a shortage, with no new supply coming on stream next year, say analysts. At the same time, battery factories being built in China are set to increase demand for lithium.
“Raw material availability is probably the biggest challenge facing the Gigafactory outside of the need for basic demand,” says Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a consultancy in London. “It is also the only area of the electric vehicle supply chain where Tesla does not have ownership and control.”