Tax incentive impact

Tax incentive impact

What impact, if any, will the production ramp increase have on people's ability to get the full credit. My take is that it shouldn't impact anyone except that they may get it sooner and it might mean more people get it.

Since TM is sticking with their 80,000 - 90,000 goal for this year all the projections through the end of this year would be unchanged. However, next year, when they really start ramping up they'll end up delivering more cars faster so, in theory, more people (or at least not any less) should be able to get the full credit. And if they're really producing as many as they plan to, that should mean more deliveries in any given quarter so that more people should get in on it before it starts to phase out.

One thing that could be the wrench in the works though is if there is any delay beyond say the third quarter of next year for the M ☰ . They reported a 45% increase in sales of the S since the reveal, so if M ☰ production is delayed they'll be able to produce more of the S and X which will eat into the 200,000. Overall though I think that this will actually get the credit to more people.

slasher0016 | 05. Mai 2016

That seems to make sense. Considering what most people were worried about was Model S/X cannibalizing the majority of the rebates, which would happen the longer it takes for the Model ≡ to come out.

jordanrichard | 05. Mai 2016

Unless one has the exact numbers of cars Tesla has sold in the U.S., none of this speculation means anything. So they are sticking to 90,000 deliveries, how many of those are to be in the U.S.? No one here knows, so there is no point in factoring that in to guess when they will reach the 200,000 units threshold.

mntlvr23 | 05. Mai 2016

An accelerated ramp up can only increase the number of people who get to take advantage of the incentive. Look at the two extremes:

1) Tesla "ramps up" to only 1000 cars a year. It will take forever to hit 200,000, but due to the small volumes, the will only sell another 500 max before the start of phase out, another 500 at 1/2 incentive, and another 500 at 1/4 incentive.

The other extreme:

2) Tesla quickly ramps up to 1,000,000 sales a year. They hit 200,000 very quickly - and then will sell up to 1.5M cars with some incentive.

Anything else falls in between that (short of tesla switching exclusively to international sales for 2 years starting immediately after hitting 200,000). The faster the ramp up, the better.

Octagondd | 05. Mai 2016

I doubt they alter how they are delivering S/X this year, so a previous assumption of around 50% domestic is fine.

It is possible that 0-50000 M≡'s will be made prior to 200,000 limit, then another 150000 in the two quarters following. Some of those could possibly be International, so who knows what the actual domestic number will be, but I imagine it is at least 80-90,000. Another 80,000 domestic could be made in the next two quarters at 50% of the credit phase out and 80,000 in the final 2 quarters of the credit phase out at 25% of the credit. That is getting at the minimum about 80,000 vehicles at full credit, 80,000 at half credit and 80,000 at quarter credit.

If they focus on domestic delivery in the first two quarters of the phase out, then even more people will get the full credit.

Sadly, my lease on a Spark EV is not up until July of 2018, so now I may have to delay my purchase and possibly lose out on the full credit if they hit 200,000 before January of 2018.

topher | 06. Mai 2016

One thing is for sure, despite what all the biased press has said, people are FAR more likely to get a rebate on a Model ≡ than a Bolt.

Thank you kindly.