I'm in line for a Model 3. Do you think the price of the Model S will go slightly lower ? I'm wondering since I really want a Model S and if the price is slightly lower I may get it ? What do you think ?
The price of a new Model S will be about the same for a while. But, a CPO MS may suit you. Also, you can sometimes get inventory testers, w/tax credit, for less. If you are serious call your local store and get someone at Tesla looking for what you want/need.
If you don't need to wait, then don't. You won't be sorry.
One reason not to wait: Safety
I expect the price will drop but not for a few years. EV costs should decline as battery prices drop and competition heats up. Right now Tesla commands a healthy margin since they are in such demand and no compelling options. The other OEMs need cars, volumes, and a charging network to even start to compete.
That said TaaS will drive up sales and volumes as soon as it is released ... big time. The value of FSD is huge and can not be overstated. Fleet buyers will want used as well as new Teslas for use in TaaS. This should drive up used values as well as new cars until enough EV enabled FSD meets market demand (see Tony Seba's report RethinkX on TaaS).
Buying used is a great idea! Tesla's batterys are proven not to last ... probably at least 400,000 miles based on solid data! .. and with about 20 moving parts, no transmission, no exhaust, brakes barely get used, etc., the maintenance costs of a used EV are estimated to be 1/10 that of an ICE age car.
Personally I think MS and MX is by far the best value on the used market since they will most likely last fully twice as long as a comparable ICE.
Eagles is a troll here to anti-sell anything Tesla and BEV. So take his FUD with a grain of pigeon poo.
Tesla stopped production of the S60 because they wanted to create more price separation between the S/X and the Model 3 - IMO.
With that in mind, if you desire a Tesla now and don't mind a used car, then by all means make the switch. Tesla has an increasing demand for the Model 3 and the Model S is - and will remain - more luxuriously appointed & equipped than the Model 3.
tstolz: I do not expect the 'price to drop' on Tesla Motors' products at all, really. The Model S will not go down to the price point of the base 5-Series. The Model ☰ will not go down to the price point of the base Camry. I think it more likely to be the other way around, with the 5-Series climbing to the $70,000+ range, and the Camry in top-level-trim is already right at the starting point of the Model ☰. There is the outside chance that if Tesla's internal cost for battery packs goes down to as little as $90 per kWh, the base price for a Model ☰ 60 might be able to be lowered to the $24,000-to-$27,500 range. But by that time, a Toyota Corolla would cost about the same.
I am very wary of the notion that 'competition will heat up' at all. I am as much of a pessimist regarding the likelihood that traditional automobile manufacturers will make a firm commitment to electric vehicles as I am an optimist that Tesla will not only survive, but strive in the future. I think it much more likely that even the broad ranging announcements of plans by Ford, BMW, and Volkswagen Group for bringing more and more 'electrified' cars to the market is a bunch of [BULL HOCKEY]. They will bide their time and continue pouring money into lobbying efforts to reduce, restrain, defer, delay, diminish, defeat, and ultimately eliminate their need to succumb to new regulations regarding emissions and fuel economy so as to preserve their primary business -- ICE vehicles -- for as long as possible, and probably more. Their focus will be primarily with hybrids or plug-in hybrids when not distracting CARB with Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles -- as if those are... 'The FUTURE!'
I believe that Tesla commands a 'hefty margin' because traditional automobile manufacturers, like Porsche, Rolls-Royce, and Ferrari, charge even larger margins for what is effectively inferior, ancient technology. If traditional luxury/performance marques hadn't gone so far upmarket -- it was possible to buy a new Rolls-Royce for around $25,000 just 40 years ago -- it is highly unlikely Tesla's cars would seem such a relative 'bargain' today. Those high end marques would actually be taking a pay cut to go all electric at low volumes and high prices.
Until such time as one of the traditional automobile manufacturers decides to actually release some vehicles that are superior to current Tesla products, they are truly blowing smoke. Announcing cars to come three-to-five years from now that target the capabilities of Tesla cars from two-or-three years ago is even less impressive when they are speaking of hybrids. I will not consider their lamentations to be in the slightest bit sincere until they deign to include high speed charging networks, a gigantic battery factory, truly mass market levels of production as targets.
Red Sage is right but you can look at is at a different angle too. It's extremely difficult to earn that high end brand image. Japanese auto companies with their technology and manufacturing prowess have tried for decades but still could not get the kind of brand image German companies and now Tesla too enjoy that allows them to command the high margin. No one would be foolish enough to want to give that up by lowering the price. Luxury good companies from Porsche, Rolls to Chanel and Hermes never lower their price even in difficult economic down times. Elon is too smart to do that too. He would just make the car better than anything else at the same price level instead of to make it cheaper.
For op you could take a look at inventory/demo cars or even low mileage CPO cars if price is a concern for you.
carlk: Actually, Acura had managed to pull it off. I worked in Century City around the time they launched, which is adjacent to Beverly Hills. In driveways that had old Mercedes-Benz, BMW, AUDI, and Jaguar cars -- the NEW car or two out front was an Acura, all over town. They were outselling EVERYONE in the 'near luxury' space. Then some idiots at Honda decided to build larger, heavier cars with 'more luxurious' interiors and 'more traditional' exteriors that had alphanumeric descriptors instead of name badges and their sales dropped like a rock.
Acura: The Honda that Didn't | Forbeswww.forbes. com/2003/04/01/cz_jf_0401flint.html
I will take safety anecdotal real life stories (which there are many out there of lives saved, or even walking away from accidents others die from) as opposed to lab tests. In fact, that IIHS test that Tesla supposedly was not as good on (the overlap test) there was a crash exactly like the overlap test, right into a tree on the driver side corner (exact overlap test) that the guy got out of the car, picked up the broken pieces, called medical, walked into the hospital and they were all in disbelief that he was even standing in front of them and not on life support. So, for those that care, IIHS test may or may not be what I would judge all things on - also NHTSA gives 5 stars in all categories.
Don't let the resident pathological liar make you think any different.
That is sweet - Eagles acting like he knows what a fact is :)
Can I just say - isn't it fun seeing the pathological liar move on from the push to buy a bolt now to buy a Chevy Malibu Hybrid -
Any Questions from Anyone out there WHO Eagles is PAID and BOUGHT by?
A destructive crash test is a LAB test - it was not a real life driver on a real road with a real crash. It was a dummy in the car. I will still take real life incidents of the exact same crashes as opposed to a lab test any day.
Not saying lab tests aren't good, it is a starting point - but when real life data shows otherwise, I will take real life data any day over a lab test.
burdogg: Yeah. I am convinced that IIHS tests have more to do with the cost of damage repair than they do with actual life/safety concerns. The damage shown in videos of their crashes is always worse than what you see in similar tests by NHTSA. I suspect IIHS conducts their crash tests at 45 MPH (or faster) instead of 40 MPH. Further evidence is that the Model S got great scores from the EURO NCAP crash tests as well, even though those are in some ways very different from NHTSA.
SO just the facts - Chevy Malibu has a better safety rating than Tesla on NHTSA? (Um, not that I saw, I may be wrong, but Tesla has a better rating than your prized Malibu.)
I will take the NHTSA over an insurance test, just me personally though. Tesla 5 stars across the board, Malibu, sorry, not so.
For those that like facts too: (Malibu hybrid had only 4 stars in Frontal Barrier Crash Rating - passenger, and in Rollover - that is 2 4 stars if you are counting. Model S - all 5 stars.https://www.edmunds.com/chevrolet/malibu/2017/hybrid/safety/https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2017/sedan/safety/
burdogg: +21! FACTS. Indisputable by pigeons & Astroturfers alike.
Funny, can't admit that still NHTSA has a lower rating in two categories for the beloved Malibu that the Pathological liar loves compared to the Model S. While yes, the IIHS in one category, Tesla has a 1 under rating than the Malibu - oh by the way, Tesla has said they already addressed this issue and expect it to be top rated in that category now too. (facts, dang they get in the way)
GM products are great at test, but terrible in the real world.
Oh, also good article on the two types of test - and guess what, as far as this article shows - Eagles saying IIHS tests for rollover is not true either. They test roof strength, but not actual rollover. here are two points from the article i will link to:
NHTSA - "Finally, NHTSA's last test is a rollover rating. Interestingly, this isn't a test at all but rather a mathematical formula that takes into account a car's width and center of gravity. While NHTSA doesn't actually test vehicles for rollover risk, the agency maintains that this test is valid after comparisons with statistics from actual car crashes."
IIHS - " There's a roof-strength test, where a metal plate is pushed against a car's roof to determine whether it would easily collapse in a rollover"
Final statement - "Which to Consider?
When it comes to crash tests, you can never be too careful. So, if you're wondering which tests are most important, our advice is simple: Look at all of them. A car that aces both IIHS and NHTSA tests will surely be a good pick, while one that earns a more moderate score might not be the best choice if safety is your top concern. Either way, now you have all the facts about how IIHS and NHTSA conduct their crash tests, so you can make the most informed decision possible."
So, pathological liar saying the Mailbu is safer is not completely true - they are both safe. Looking at both sets of tests for both cars - they each have flaws - BUT again, TESLA has stated they have already addressed the IIHS issue found and would get a Good rating now. So I'll stick with Model S and again Real world data too.
Sorry Op that your post has been derailed. Back to what you are asking:
I don't think it will go any lower. If it does, I don't see it going lower by much more. The only way would be if batteries get cheap enough that they can lower the Model 3 price. That way they can keep the same difference in cost between the two.
As far as safety that seems to have derailed this - I don't think the 3 is going to be any less safe than an S. It is just the amount of time you have to wait to get into that safety if you care. (ie I have to be in the safest car right now, well, then the S is worth it, as you still have to wait somewhere around 6 months or more to get into the same safe Model 3).
Technically, the Model S already 'went down slightly' with the cancellation of the Model S 60 with software limited capacity. A 75 kWh RWD version for less than $70,000 in base trim (now standard with automatic rear liftgate). But no, it won't go down to $60,000 or $50,000 or $45,000 as a new purchase -- EVER.