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Long term Model 3 value

Long term Model 3 value

I am debating between the Model 3 and Nissan Leaf 2, but have to wait a month to decide after I see the specs on the Leaf. I am thinking that the Model 3 will hold a higher value, but I have been reading that Tesla might go bankrupt. If they do, does someone buy them out or does the car lose maintenance support? I am thinking 5 years down the road. I know that GM went bankrupt, then came back, so I guess its not an issue these days. Thanks!

sentabo | 10. August 2017

You should probably delete this and post it on the Model 3 forum. Or even the General forum. Or no forum at all since bankruptcy would be pure speculation and almost certainly is not part of the equation.

medeno321 | 10. August 2017

yes, I will move now. Thanks

gatorj31 | 10. August 2017

well lets see. My two year old leaf is worth 1/3 of its original price so you tell me what's the wisest choice. Try and find a tesla priced at 1/3 value after two yrs. Smh

redacted | 10. August 2017

As @gatorj31 points out, Leafs have depreciated at about the speed of Yugos. Teslas have held their value much better. Bankruptcy is a possibility, presumably somebody would buy out and provide maintenance for Teslas if so (maybe Fisker? :smirk:).

carlk | 10. August 2017

It sure will be better than Leaf but that's not saying much. I think it will hold its value real well though. People want to buy used BMW because they want one and that's what they could afford. On the other hand people don't want to buy used BMW because of its high maintenance and fuel costs so they ended up bidding up used Corollas, Civics and Prius. Used Model 3 seems to provide them best of both worlds I think it will be very popular in used car market.

carlk | 10. August 2017

As for bankrupt I think other auto companies will go bankrupt if the don't try to catch up with Tesla.

Should_I | 10. August 2017

Seeing as the first Model 3s were delivered weeks ago it is silly to be talking what resale will be, though I think the comments sofar are reasonable but nobody knows.
On bankruptcy Tesla is spending heavily on expansion which can make the books look bad, but their expansions seem successful....

jjs | 10. August 2017

You could Bolt a Leaf to a Yugo and still not get the value in 2-3 years that you will get from a Model 3.

GM, Ford and Chrysler will go bankrupt before Tesla.

Anthony J. Parisio | 11. August 2017

BANKRUPT! Are you kidding? 500,000 orders for Model 3 * $35,000.00 dollars = $17,500,000,000.00! That is the low estimate! Is this post a joke?

gar1116 | 11. August 2017

"Bolt a Leaf to a Yugo" - I see what you did there. Haha!

Made in CA | 11. August 2017

In the entire history of the US auto industry there are only two car companies that have not filed for bankruptcy - Ford and Tesla.

Shock | 11. August 2017

Leafs depreciate in value faster than a used condom. That said, if Tesla went bankrupt, the same would happen to the Tesla.

If you want to be as risk-averse as possible, buy an ICE car from a long-term brand. Although, I'm risk averse and I want a tesla in part because I think they are moving the line on safety. I believe autonomous driving will limit accidents, and it already is in their cars.

The biggest issue on any of these is that in five years standard EV ranges will be much higher than the 220 in the tesla, so that's going to hurt it somewhat. There's no way to get ahead of this sort of thing until we "top out". I mean if an EV can do 500 miles, does it really need better? At some point cars will stop pushing the envelope on range and just use better battery tech to lower costs and weight. But we're not there yet.

High Plains Drifter | 11. August 2017

Cars are not investments. Do not buy cars specifically EVs if depreciation is a concern. EVs fall faster in initial value than most traditional ICE models. EVs resale value share the same fate as laptops & smart phones.

Tesla has not been around long enough to be making historic longevity claims.

georgehawley.fl.us | 11. August 2017

The long term value of the Tesla is that it will be an even better car in a few years. You won't want to replace it and won't need to. Q.E.D.

bp | 11. August 2017

Let's roll back the clock 5 years to when Tesla produced the first Model S cars.

We received our car in January of 2013, VIN 3xxx.

At that time, the nearest Tesla Service Center was 1,000 miles away. Tesla literally had UPS (through a subcontractor) ship the car to our front door - and there wasn't anyone from Tesla around to support delivery.

There wasn't a supercharger network, so road trips were trailblazing, requiring careful planning on the location and distance to places where we could charge.

And Tesla required we pay for the entire car up front, before they would even ship it from the factory to us.

Back then, for those early Model S customers - with little infrastructure to support us, there was certainly a lot of risk in spending over $100K for a Tesla.

Things are much different now. Tesla has one or more Service Centers in major cities. They have an expanding network of superchargers and destination chargers. And they're adding a mobile service program to have someone do the service on your car - without even having to go to a Service Center.

Yes, there is risk in buying a Model 3, S or X today. But that risk is much, much lower than 5 years ago.

And with the progress Tesla has made in the 5 years since we ordered our S P85, our biggest concern with ordering a Model 3 is not that Tesla will fail - but in how much longer we'll have to wait before we have one.

jordanrichard | 11. August 2017

you haven't even bought the car yet and you are already selling it.................

Agent_86 | 11. August 2017

Far from "falling faster in initial value", Teslas lead their class in retaining value, regardless of drivetrain. Find me another luxury (or any) ICE that only depreciated 6% after 10k miles or only 48% after 100k. I do think the shorter range cars will hit a point where they fall faster as the range may feel very dated.

http://insideevs. com/tesla-model-s-depreciates-only-28-in-first-50000-miles/

High Plains Drifter | 11. August 2017

Tesla has a very simple trade in value formula for the Model S. $1000 off per month age and $1 off per odometer miles. That means a $75K Model S will lose almost 1/3 its initial value after 1 year (assuming 12K miles).

Can't speculate on the actual depreciation formula Tesla will use for the Model 3. Nor can I tell you that you will love that car so much that you'll never want to sell. All I can do is present you with some factual information to help you along with your decision.

jjs | 11. August 2017

High Plains Drifter - I don't think you can say that a Telsa loses 1/3 of its value after the first year with the information you gave. I think rather you can say Tesla will give you 1/3 less. What you can get on the open market? That may be something different.

kgr99 | 11. August 2017

@High Plains Drifter | August 11, 2017
Tesla has a very simple trade in value formula for the Model S.

Is that the official formula? Any sources? It appears to be quite aggressive.

jacknleela | 11. August 2017

Imho, the thousands of traders, analysts and Wall Street experts are the best guide on the future viability of a company and their solvency. If you use their aggregate evaluation based on the current valuation of Tesla, I would say bankruptcy is nowhere on the horizon.

HummerMan3 | 11. August 2017

I definitely don't anticipate Tesla going bankrupt. Although it would negatively affect the car's value in the short-term, think about the long-term value of something well-designed, unique, and limited (a la NES Classic, DeLorean, etc). While we wouldn't be able to get the vehicle serviced as easily, it would be pretty neat to own a rare-ish "piece of history".

seilerbird | 11. August 2017

I want some of what the OP is smoking.

medeno321 | 11. August 2017

Guess it will be better to wait to test drive both cars and compare Nissan Propilot vs Tesla Autopilot, price, and warranty. Not sure about that Tesla display, but have to see it in person. Looks like bankruptcy is not an issue from everyone's comments. thanks

pepsundar | 11. August 2017

When I decided to go electric, I went for a Nissan Leaf (2015) - my biggest mistake in life. I replaced my 2nd gasoline car with Tesla P85, which is the best decision in my life. Nissan Leaf should be renamed as Nissan Leash!

jjs | 11. August 2017

@pepsundar Nissan Leash - Funny! :) I had not heard that one before. Thanks for the smile.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 12. August 2017

[ FOXTROT - FOXTROT - SIERRA ]

kwen197 | 20. August 2017

I-Phone 6 trade in value $180.

patrick40363 | 20. August 2017

go buy a leaf.

AmpedRealtor | 20. August 2017

The Model 3 will have at least double the range of a Leaf and much better performance and handling. The Model 3's battery is also thermally managed, Leaf is not. That means your Leaf's battery capacity will degrade substantially faster. My 2013 Model S battery range has declined by about 3.5% since purchase.

The new Leaf is also incredibly ugly from what I've seen.

noleaf4me | 20. August 2017

@carlk - agree - there are several that are teetering......I say Fiat Chrysler is the first big one to go. I also would not be surprised to see one of the Japanese brands go under if they do not wake up.

rxlawdude | 20. August 2017

Mitsubishi has been in chronic economic funk, as has Mazda.

ST70 | 20. August 2017

wtf?

dlake | 20. August 2017

If you read the FUD from financial and some other "journalists", you can believe that Tesla is teetering on financial meltdown.
Then you drive the car (then buy the car- like I did 3.5 years ago), then you understand why there's 500,000 orders for the Model 3. Tesla is in a logarithmic growth phase which requires $$.
Nissan has a better chance of discontinuing the Leaf than Tesla has of going out of business.

dd.micsol | 21. August 2017

+10 to gator. EVs are still a hard sell so that tends to drive price down. However, tesla seems to be the exception to the rule. I'd expect the model 3 310 version to be about 1/2 value in 3-5 yrs. Leaf is junk period. Bolt isn't much better. Right now the model 3 is the best EV. Fisker too expensive. Jag-same problem too late and too expensive. Faraday-same thing-to expensive and too late to the show.
I do applaud efforts to bring an EV but they 1/2 butt it like it's going to die and don't want it to survive. Which is probably true due to OPEC and big oil companies like Exxon. I just call it blood oil. We killed our servicemen to keep it cheap and the war is still going on. Look at CNN front page. Now it is both oil and opium. f em both.
Lost 3 friends to Desert Storm which was a big sheeet storm of all time. A big lie. A war to keep oil cheap. If it weren't for oil we would have never gone to war over there. Sorry, I'm still mad about it, which is why I'm so against oil in any way. We now need to get rid of Trump and Pence because they have no clue about anything even with advisors but he's so anal that even those people can't hold a job long. We need a new election in my opinion. Trump is horrific. I thought he would have changed with advisors but what a dork.
And @dlake-yes, fundamental investors are trying to be like warren buffet by only looking at fundamentals. They are so wrong but are blind to the fact that mdl 3 will bring in 30b and model y will bring in 30b and the truck 40-50b.
The semi-no clue about how that will go without battery swapping. I suggested to elon to bring battery swapping to the semis at communal charges. This way they can charge up faster and get their cargo to destination faster. Who knows really. hyperloop might be a good alternative to this speed to destination issue.

peter | 21. August 2017

I think it all comes down to supply and demand. For most of the electric cars out there demand was lower than supply, that's why you could pick up a new e-golf for 2 or 3k down and $39 a month or an off-lease Leaf for $9k. If you need a around town car, don't care what it looks like and are okay with the fact that they will always be totally driver-driven cars, they are pretty incredible deals. If Tesla starts selling 500k plus cars a year they have to pull a first year Acura Integra (which had a higher resale value than the original price for several years) and convince the car buying public that the value metric for the car purchase has changed.

The more likely scenario is that cars go the way of flat panel TVs versus crt-based TVs--ultimately, they have fewer parts, fewer parts that wear, have up-gradable software controlling a significant amount of their functionality, and are able to quickly adapt to uses beyond their intended purpose. If autonomous driving becomes ubiquitous, Tesla looses a certain edge.

My guess is that if the M3 is hugely successful and other brands are not able to counter with compelling alternatives, the M3, and all Teslas actually, maintain a high resale value. But, you cannot base the depreciation of a M3 on past Teslas. Tesla is planning to sell far more M3's in the first year than it has sold in it's entire existence. If two years from now we are seeing other brands giving Tesla a run for its money on features and brand vision then we may see fairly significant depreciation of value in our purchase. And if, let's hope not, the M3 is actually ultimately a turd-several recalls, some of which cannot be rectified, major deviance from the MS experience, then I predict the M3 goes the way of the Leaf and we''ll be lucky to sell an M3 for a third of the original purchase price after a few years. I've got a first day reservation and this will be my third e-car, having leased both a Leaf and after that an e-Golf, so I'm hoping things go more the Integra way than the Leaf way.

Shock | 21. August 2017

Peter raises some good points, and it's true we need to be very careful assuming an m3 will depreciate like an ms.

I know some dismissive responses to this sort of question are "Why are you interested in selling it before you buy it?", but savvy individuals know the value of what they are spending money on and how that value changes over time. If I end up having more than a very small sense that the m3 could depreciate as quickly as the leaf has, I will be sure not to buy one.

i think the leaf gen 2 is going to crash in resale just like the current one, but for leasees of current leafs that has been okay. They were cheap to pick up and nissan eats the loss.

Carl Thompson | 21. August 2017

@Shock:
"If I end up having more than a very small sense that the m3 could depreciate as quickly as the leaf has, I will be sure not to buy one."

I think that would be extremely unlikely. There would likely have to be a huge reliability problem with the new battery cells for that to happen (and it would almost certainly be the end of Tesla).

"i think the leaf gen 2 is going to crash in resale just like the current one..."

I think the next gen Leaf can't help but do a lot better in resale than the current. Better battery management, their EAP and FSD equivalent and less ugliness will allow them to hold more value. But I think Nissan would have been better off giving it a new name so that people realize it's different / better thought out.

Carl

dyefrog | 21. August 2017

My gut instinct thinks that any other EV than Tesla will have horrendous resale until they have a recharging network equal to or better than the supercharger network. Without that, they are gimped as an accessory vehicle.

GetLib | 21. August 2017

@dyefrog the supercharging network is consistent between new and used Tesla's, so it is a non-factor in used/resale. I see your point for EV vs ICE, but it doesn't apply to EV vs EV, nor new to used.

dyefrog | 21. August 2017

@GetLib
I was comparing a Tesla, any Tesla, with a Leaf, Bolt, Ionic, etc.

SUN 2 DRV | 21. August 2017

How long do you keep your cars?

I keep mine a long time, and so I don't care if it depreciates in 3 years or 10 years. I'm very happy with my Model S and its current resale value is irrelevant to me since I don't plan to sell it...

teslamotorfaq.com | 21. August 2017

There are many recent posts where MS owners being offer trade in value that's what most consider low-ball offer. As M3 inventory increase and technology improve resale value will drop. Also M3 does not have infinite miles warranty on drive unit and battery so there could be concern for out of warranty failure which will cost owners more than a new M3.

TeslaTap.com | 21. August 2017

Tesla trade in values are similar to CarMax and dealer trade in values. I'm not sure I'd consider this low-ball, but typical. You can sell any car including the Tesla via private party and make more money - but there is the hassle of promoting and selling it yourself. Kelly blue book is a good way to check out what you may get for a car sale based on condition and how you plan to sell it. Tesla's so far seem to have better resale value that other cars in their class after 4-5 years. If anyone is really concerned with resale value, then a lease is one way to eliminate that concern.

dyefrog | 21. August 2017

"Also M3 does not have infinite miles warranty on drive unit and battery so there could be concern for out of warranty failure which will cost owners more than a new M3."
Really? You're saying that the drive unit/battery replacement is >$35k? Where did you dig up this nugget?

teslamotorfaq.com | 21. August 2017

The drive unit and battery of coz won't cost the same as a brand new M3 but out of warranty is always a concern for Tesla and now with drive unit and the battery not being included this can be a big potential concern when buying a used M3.

As for resale value, I read http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111433_life-with-tesla-model-s-the-... also another owner posted trade in value for his MS 75 <1 year old with 8k miles only received 60% of the MSRP from Tesla.

GetLib | 22. August 2017

@dyefrog oops I misread your post. Yes I'd agree with bigger depreciation for non-tesla EVs.

@sun 2 drv isnt average car ownership like 4-5 years in the states? Now that we are getting into tech heavy vehicles, one would assume that average would decrease in near term. Not caring about resale is fine - but expecting you'll drive a car you've never ridden in for 10 years sounds ... Optimistic.

sweluhu | 22. August 2017

I don't think Tesla is going corrupt anytime soon. The future has no room for Gas vehicle. I'm sure 20% of people def want a Tesla. It's an awesome car with virtually no serious maintenance.

rxlawdude | 22. August 2017

@sweluhu, I certainly hope that Tesla doesn't go corrupt. That's what elected officials are for!