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12-18 month wait - is it realistic?

12-18 month wait - is it realistic?

So I’m ready to put my deposit down and the website quoted a 12-18 month wait. I just want to ask the group here, is that a realistic time period based on never having previously owned a Tesla or not being anywhere near a dealer? Just ordering from the website can I pretty much count on that time period?

KP in NPT | 25. September 2017

No one here really knows the answer - all will depend on how the ramp goes. But based on what we know now, I would say that is realistic.

the deposit is refundable - so if things change you can always get your money back. I would get in line.

hoffmannjames | 25. September 2017

Well, it is the time period that Tesla expects so probably, yes. That is about the time Tesla thinks they can get production to the level where you would get your car when you place your order.

gar1116 | 25. September 2017

What he said. Better now than later.

Yodrak. | 25. September 2017

Maybe

"12-18 month wait - is it realistic?"

locnguyencalalum | 25. September 2017

Pretty sure risk assessment procured that window time frame. So I say it's pretty safe that they will meet or exceed that time window. 6 months is an insanely flexible window btw

ramirezfrank96 | 25. September 2017

Yes! We put our deposit down first day 3//31/16 so way over 12 months ago and once we take delivery between Nov17-Jan18 i feel like it would be so worth it!! So even if u put a deposit down now, your waiting the same amount or less than those who put a deposit down the first day.

bj | 26. September 2017

Well I reserved 18 months ago and I still have 18 months to wait, so consider yourself lucky.

JayInJapan | 26. September 2017

I’ve waited a year and a half so far, and I have another year and a half to go.

Shock | 26. September 2017

12 months? No, not realistic.

The earliest people here are estimated to take delivery between Oct-Nov on their "manage my tesla" page and yet none of them have received a request to configure their car. We're about to see the first delay IMO as the timetable slips and their dates move.

18 maybe....

What is sure is the longer you wait the longer it will be. Put your money down now and then take it out later (cancel reservation) if you are tired of waiting or don't like the car.

AJPHL | 26. September 2017

I agree 12 months is overly-optimistic. But if you want the car definitely get in line now, the wait is going to keep going up for a little while more I suspect once more people get to see the car in person.

sbaschn | 26. September 2017

I don't understand why it takes so long.....4/1/16 order date and still no response. I'm waiting patiently b/c I don't want to spend $150,000 on a model S or X. Someday we will get to pick colors, options, etc...

KP in NPT | 26. September 2017

You reserved last year - not ordered - a year and a half before the car was released. The car just started production and is going to employees first. That's what's taking so long.

bp | 26. September 2017

It may depend on the specific configuration you want.

Tesla plans to make a batch of the RWD/310 mile configurations first - so if you select that configuration, and not enough people in front of you want that configuration, you might get moved up.

Tesla also has a tendency to ship the more expensive configurations faster - so if you indicate you want the most expensive configuration (which would be the dual-motor 310, due for 2nd half of 2018), you might also move up a little more in the line.

Tesla appears to be a little behind their current estimates right now. Despite indicating they planned to begin shipping to customers (not Tesla/SpaceX employees) in October-December 2017, it doesn't appear any customers have received notification to configure their cars yet - so Tesla's not going to make customer deliveries at the beginning of October.

Plus, with reports that the software is missing obvious features (no FM radio, no Bluetooth audio, no Homelink), customer deliveries could be delayed until the software is operational. Though if that's the reason for customer delays, Tesla could continue building the new Model 3s and hold them for now, and then release them to customers once the software is working. And if that happens, it shouldn't have any impact on future deliveries.

RedPillSucks | 26. September 2017

@sbaschn
*puts on Tesla sales person hat*
You can get an inventory Model S 75D for around $85k or a CPO Model S for around $60K. No need to wait.
*hat gets knocked off*

The reason its taking so long is they're starting the ramp up slowly. They're not jumping immediately to $20k Model 3 per month, or whatever the numbers are. They're starting slow and doing validation testing on the first batch of cars, then notching production up a bit, rinse, repeat. Some would argue that they should have taken the extra year and done validation in house instead of releasing the Kraken on employees and early adopters, It is what it is. As others have said, if you're getting itchy waiting, you can always cancel your res and get a cheaper used Model S, or jump to another manufacturer.

Carl Thompson | 26. September 2017

@RedPillSucks:
"... instead of releasing the Kraken ..."

Clash of the Titans (1981) reference? Dig deep! Nicely done.

Carl

andy.connor.e | 26. September 2017

No matter how long it takes for delivery, there is not a better time to invest in the new technology. Its inevitable. Either get into it right now when the right company has stepped up, or be the one scrambling later on, when the demand for EVs is so high it could be a 2-3 year wait. Theres billions of cars on the road, right now theres a 12-18 month wait for a few hundred thousand. Imagine if millions of people were trying to buy a Tesla right now, how long would you be waiting?

ReD eXiLe ms us | 26. September 2017

andy.connor.e: Precisely. By the end of 2018 Tesla intends to be building 40,000 of the Model 3 per month. People who Reserved early will be getting their cars a lot sooner than in the 15 or 16 months when they were building zero per month. But if demand grows to 70,000 or 100,000 per month, or even 150,000+ per month, Tesla will need new factories. That will take time to prepare and those who get in line then will still have a lengthy wait ahead of them.

jordanrichard | 26. September 2017

Put down your $1,000 deposit now. You have nothing to lose except the bank interest on that....oh wait, banks don't pay interest anymore.............

Ya, you have nothing to lose.

andy.connor.e | 26. September 2017

^
Get your foot in the door, because the worst that could happen is you cant afford it anymore and you get your deposit back.