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Dual Motor AWD with battery choices before Base version

Dual Motor AWD with battery choices before Base version

I just checked my delivery estimator for my 2nd reservation. It looks like the order of production is going to be
- First Production
- Optional Dual Motor+LR+PUP
- Optional Dual Motor+SR+PUP
- Optional Dual Motor+SR

Seems to me that they've arranged the release to ensure people opting for more options benefit the most from the federal credits AND this helps production packaging.

The wildcard will be interior options like white interior that can come in at any time. Interesting :)

amebcia | 07. Februar 2018

Tell me when P is coming :) Hopefully before SR :)

vmulla | 07. Februar 2018

aah...the P, another wildcard :)

But seriously, this sucks! As far as the image of pushing a mass market car to the masses goes, it's a huge step back.
I already have my first M3, yay for me, but if I'm the guy waiting for the SR/RWD I just found out that I'm unlikely to get my M3 for a looong time AND very likely going to miss out on the tax credits. Not fun!

borne.by.wind | 07. Februar 2018

Same here. First day reservation holder and now first production May-July, AWD late 2018 and standard battery early 2019. Model3OwnersClub posted a Canadian reservation for first production or AWD as mid 2018 and standard battery as early 2019.

amebcia | 07. Februar 2018

" AND very likely going to miss out on the tax credits."

Get a Leaf :)

Just kidding

bayareakid2008 | 07. Februar 2018

That sound you hear is the sound of the $35,000 Model 3 being cancelled. My prediction: the PUP features become standard and the new base price becomes $40,000 or more.

Carl Thompson | 07. Februar 2018

It's quite possible that the $35k version won't be available until more than a year after the first cars were sold (Aug 2017).

vmulla | 07. Februar 2018

@amebcia, as a matter of fact, I am getting a Leaf :)
The Leaf is a fantastic second car for city driving, I have the M3 now for road trips.

I've had the Leaf for the last 3 yrs, and it's the car that built my confidence to invest in an MS 2yrs ago - so I respect Leaf.

burdogg | 07. Februar 2018

Tesla stock will hit $1500. My prediction - Stock will climb, with occasional falls due to bears joining hands and spreading misinformation, only to then have their shorts lit on fire to loose another 15 billion.

See, I can do it too.

Tesla is serious about making this car for the masses, sure it might take longer but they are not getting rid of the standard range...But thanks for your opinion - even if you make it sound like fact.

burdogg | 07. Februar 2018

loose - man lose!

jamespompi | 07. Februar 2018

Pending that the AWD is really “less than 5K” I think its one of the better upgrades you can get. I wasn’t planning on anything but the base, but this is definitely the one I’d be most willing to spend more on to get the car faster..

bayareakid2008 | 07. Februar 2018

Burdogg, virtually every move taken by Tesla in regards to the M3 has been adverse to making the car for the masses. Owner priority, delays and likely cancellation of the $35k version. Can you name a single policy in regards to the Model 3 rollout that has benefited the "masses"?

Carl Thompson | 07. Februar 2018

@bayareakid2008:
"... and likely cancellation of the $35k version."

On what are you basing this? Delayed does not mean canceled.

bayareakid2008 | 07. Februar 2018

Carl, I'm basing on the delay + putting the AWD ahead of the SR. Also the fact that Tesla will likely lose money on the $35k Model 3.

KP in NPT | 07. Februar 2018

vmulla, your thread is about to go into the gutter.

burdogg | 07. Februar 2018

The point of my post was, that you are stating it as a pretty much a fact. I don't mind if you come here saying my opinion is that they will not make the $35,000 car for xyz reasons. Then others can have a discussion with you on it. But that is just me - as I understand what you are saying, but I disagree - Tesla may be pushing it out for many reasons - and yes, one may be that they would lose money on it right this minute if they sold it. But with the Gigafactory and costs continually dropping, to say they will never have a $35,000 Model 3 does not add up.

Again, my opinion...but neither you nor I know for sure. Maybe I am just misreading your statement, but comes across matter of fact :)

amebcia | 08. Februar 2018

A year from now M3 SR will have a competitor - 2019 Nissan Leaf with 220miles of range. Other cars on the horizon seem to be in the MS price range (Volvo, Porsche, Jaguar).

Model 3 LR AWD is currently the only announced EV feeling the $50k price range and competing with ICE performance sedans.

Even today, Bolt and 2018 Leaf are close competitors with M3. It is smart move for Tesla to focus on LR. There is no competition in this price/range/performance segment and profit margin is very likely higher than on SR.

I would not be so pessimistic to say that SR will be cancelled. To the contrary, the SR price range market is bigger, but profit margins are likely smaller. They need to sharpen mass production before going there.

Mttcoco | 08. Februar 2018

@burdogg

"Tesla stock will hit $1500. My prediction - Stock will climb, with occasional falls due to bears joining hands and spreading misinformation, only to then have their shorts lit on fire to loose another 15 billion."

I'm sure all of the shorts will be laughing at the latest delays.

If you're long on Tesla, there's still huge potential for growth.

Shock | 08. Februar 2018

Same in my estimate. The dual, which has yet to even be officially announced by them, is now available to me in my estimator before the $35k car, which was proudly touted out last july as "yes, we really have a $35k tesla!". For now and foreseeable future the $35k tesla is a unicorn.

It's starting to feel a bit like a sleezy car dealership: "Come on down we have a brand new mustang for $18k, and lots of other cars, too!". You go down to the dealership "Oh, sorry, we sold that one, yeah, so sad, anyway, we have lots of other mustangs, these ones start at $30k, can I put you in one today?"

Shock | 08. Februar 2018

Same in my estimate. The dual, which has yet to even be officially announced by them, is now available to me in my estimator before the $35k car, which was proudly touted out last july as "yes, we really have a $35k tesla!". For now and foreseeable future the $35k tesla is a unicorn.

It's starting to feel a bit like a sleezy car dealership: "Come on down we have a brand new mustang for $18k, and lots of other cars, too!". You go down to the dealership "Oh, sorry, we sold that one, yeah, so sad, anyway, we have lots of other mustangs, these ones start at $30k, can I put you in one today?"

Iwantmy3 | 08. Februar 2018

borne.by.wind,
I can confirm that. I logged on this morning worrying that my Canadian reservation had been moved to 2019. Surprised to see that first production and dual motor is now predicting mid 2018 (it was late 2018). I had to read it 3x before I believed my eyes. 220 standard version is predicted for 2019.

gbb0131 | 08. Februar 2018

Thought that was interesting as well that you would be able to get an AWD SR before just a SR car.

gbb0131 | 08. Februar 2018

Thought that was interesting as well that you would be able to get an AWD SR before just a SR car.

M3forMe | 08. Februar 2018

With Canadian estimate moving up, this means Tesla is trying to extend the tax rebate for US buyers. IMO

jamespompi | 08. Februar 2018

@gbb0131 Its an upgrade like PUP so it would make sense to give it priority too if they're doing it for PUP. Just wish they'd finally put a $ on it. The estimator looks weird having the furthest option out having a price and not the AWD.

r.sawyer | 08. Februar 2018

@jamespompi Agreed. It would be nice to know what all my options are going to cost, if it ever gets to be my turn.

borne.by.wind | 08. Februar 2018

Iwantmy3
“I can confirm that. I logged on this morning worrying that my Canadian reservation had been moved to 2019. Surprised to see that first production and dual motor is now predicting mid 2018 (it was late 2018).”

Seems like Elon is spreading the love around geographically. If the mid 2018 date holds, some Canadians will get their AWD before 1st day reservation holders in the US.

bp | 09. Februar 2018

Not surprised Tesla is focusing first on the higher priced configurations. That's what they did with S/X. The first production cars were "Signature" with one configuration and all available options. For our first S, we were in the second wave, Performance cars with the largest battery pack (85) and all available options. And later, they started producing the smaller battery packs and offered more configuration options.

Since at least part of the manufacturing delays have been related to the battery pack manufacturing, it makes sense for Tesla to continue to focus on getting the LR battery pack production fully automated, before adding a second battery pack option. And because that's taken longer than they expected, also not surprising that dual motor will now come out ahead of SR.

The comment about the possibility of cancelling the $35K SR configuration isn't as crazy as it sounds.

When the Model S first came out, Tesla offered a 40Kwh battery pack option, to bring the entry price of the Model S closer to $50K. They built a small number of those cars, before deciding to drop the low end battery pack and shift to producing 60Kwh packs as the entry configuration.

For the Model 3, that seems less likely. Tesla wants to hit the $35K price point. A large number of the 450K+ reservations were likely for the base/SR configuration. While it may take longer than everyone would like to see, it's not surprising that the base configuration at the lowest price point will likely be the last configuration Tesla puts into production, because they are under pressure not only to increase their production rate - but also to generate income and get to profitability (harder to do on the base configuration).

andy.connor.e | 09. Februar 2018

They need to ramp up production speed before NON-pup is available. Need to stop saying it wont be available or that it will be canceled. Sounds like a bunch of kids arguing over a video game.

hoffmannjames | 09. Februar 2018

Tesla would not ditch the $35k now considering that they promised it as part of their big Model 3 reveal. But after Tesla has satisfied the reservation holders that wanted it, I could definitely see Tesla changing things up. It's all about supply and demand. If there is not enough demand for the $35k version to justify it, then Tesla would need to change it. I could see Tesla eventually doing what they did with the S and ditching rear wheel drive completely and just having a standard range dual motor and a long range dual motor for the Model 3.

mos6507 | 09. Februar 2018

" they promised it as part of their big Model 3 reveal. "

They also promised spaceship steering...

andy.connor.e | 09. Februar 2018

@mos

Thats probably the biggest letdown of this entire thing. The emphasis on "spaceship", its like it fell off the face of the planet (into orbit haha) and was never talked about again.

bayareakid2008 | 09. Februar 2018

Tesla has broken many, many promises (Model 3 ramp numbers, FSD/EAP advancement, Gigafactory timeline, 40 kWh Model s, etc.). Not sure why everyone assumes they will release the $35k version just because they promised, especially when it doesn't make good business sense.

vmulla | 09. Februar 2018

Updates from Tesla over the last few days must have competitors celebrating >:(
I wish they rolled out the base model sooner. Tesla's mission of accelerating sustainable transportation took a huge step back with the way the options roll out are planned.

I know that Tesla is doing it's best to push as many cars as possible out, but I'm bummed out about the rollout plan for 2 specific reasons:
1) Competitors aren't going to be fighting a 35K electric car for a long time
2) A lost opportunity to develop a super influential EV user community earlier

Let me elaborate. For the foreseeable future, M3 is a $55K car. And that means competitors can relax in their reluctant push towards affordable EVs. What's the hurry? The Bolt and Leaf suddenly became more palatable along with a bunch of some other subpar EVs.
Tesla caught our attention because it forces competitors to take notice, it fought competitors on features, performance, AND price-point. Would Model S be such a success story if its BASE price was 115K? No, it would be treated as a niche market vehicle. I want other manufacturers to feel the heat sooner, sustainable transportation is the end goal isn't it?

Thousand upon thousands of budget-minded folks crave an affordable EV, and they put in a deposit. Some would have made sacrifices to put down the deposit, all to be part of the EV future and their trust in Tesla. I feel the people waiting for the base M3 would have made the best advocates for an EV future. Its one thing when an owner of a 55K car calls their vehicle fantastic, but it a much more powerful message when someone says 'Hey I looked at my ICE options, but my $35K EV is a fantastic alternative and fits my budget too'. THAT would have lit the fire under ICE manufacturers' behinds. It will happen eventually, but it could have happened sooner

The car is being sold to previous owners and people who can afford higher-end vehicles now - I get that logic behind that, I really do. But isn't this reinforcing the myth that EVs are for the rich?
I'm happy now, but I would have celebrated if the $35K vehicle was released first. -- END RANT --

ebmcs03 | 09. Februar 2018

Well this gives other manufactures a chance to catch up. Hurry up VW! BMW! Porsche! Someone come out with a decent EV and you’ll capture the lost market share that Tesla is giving up right now.

RedPillSucks | 09. Februar 2018

@vmulla well, this is a double edged sword, isn't it. On the one hand, Teslas position with the M3 IS forcing other car makers to transition faster to EV than they would have without Tesla. On the other hand, more players means more competition for Tesla. Musk has said that's a good thing because he wants more EV adoption. However, your point that the price point is higher than 35K is well taken. Two things...
1. Does anyone remember how much the Prius sold for (not its base price) when they first came out and were really hot?

2. Does anyone buy the base Bolt or BMW I3? I think even though Tesla M3 will be a 45k car for a little while longer, it will still compete well with the Bolt and the I3 for the cars that people are willing to buy

vmulla | 09. Februar 2018

@RedPillSucks, I'm first interested in the mission - to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.
To that effect, we have a set back. It's just because the mission also calls for provoking other manufactures.
Wether the car is a Tesla or not should be an after thought. We can all agree that there's enough demand for the M3 regardless of the options/pricing.

hmgolds | 10. Februar 2018

Logic would suggest that the best way to ramp production up is to deliver the simpler models first. The exact opposite is occurring.

My opinion (or my guess) is that Tesla cannot make money on a $35k M3 at this point in time. Or that the profit margin on the more loaded versions are far greater. As economies improve, that will possibly change. Therefore, the $35k version has moved from the 2nd production "batch" to the 3rd.

Of course, I could be wrong. An alternative theory might be that more reservation holders opted for the AWD version than the SR version.

The idea that what is essentially a startup would need more profit early is neither surprising nor particularly concerning.

Carl Thompson | 10. Februar 2018

@hmgolds

Agreed. I think it will be a while before Tesla can make a profit on a $35k Model 3 so they will need to adjust its timing and availability to minimize the number of people that choose to purchase it over the more expensive versions. Nothing really wrong with that as it's something any business would do.

I'm starting to suspect that the $35k model won't be readily available until _after_ the U.S. federal tax credit has run out. Sucks for people that expected a Tesla for $27,500 but hard to fault Tesla for it if they are trying to show sustained profits this year.

However, I also suspect that when the tax credit runs out the price of what is now the first production version will go down by maybe $5k and a similar drop in price for the Models S and X. I do _not_ think the base $35k will see a drop in price and that will help serve to keep most people buying the more expensive version of the 3 (which would then be cheaper than it is now).

msmith55 | 12. Februar 2018

Perhaps you should look at the problem is it that production limits the number of cars produced, so Tesla wants the more expensive models produced to make profit.

andy.connor.e | 12. Februar 2018

Thats exactly right. Im sure there were financial reasons investigated that concluded the LR + PUP would yield the greatest return until the production speed increases.

That goes hand in hand with my previous prediction that the SR, White interior and all that extra stuff will start to become available when the production speeds increase closer to 5k/week.