Stock price

Stock price

I saw this article in Forbes and wonder if anyone else is worried? | 26. März 2018

Nope. It's a volatile stock with shorters desperate to keep the stock price going down and creating articles like this. So far they have lost billions betting Tesla will fail. Seems like shorting is a fool's bet to me.

SO | 26. März 2018

Just google TSLA price drop. You will find articles every few months about how it’s tanking, etc.

Then shortly after, it goes up.


Frank99 | 26. März 2018

It's likely dropping on pessimistic expectations that Tesla won't make their Q1 promises. It's hard to remain an optimist with the kinds of challenges that Tesla has faced in the Model 3 ramp. Look for a big rebound, though, if they make their numbers.

I bought a piddly stack of Tesla back shortly after I reserved (3/31/16) - I figured that, if I ever got my car, it would mean that Tesla had successfully ramped the Model 3, and the stock would be worth significantly more than what I paid for it. I was hoping to clear a good down-payment on the car. With the extended ramp, I'll still end up with a down payment, though not as big as I hoped, unless the stock takes a big bump in the next 3-6 weeks that Tesla predicts for me to get my car. Here's hoping the quarter-end report is positive...

Tesla2018 | 26. März 2018

I think the number of car delivered will be pitiful but net losses to be less since they have been takiing in more money when people configure their cars or order Roadsters or Semis.
If they announce that the new machine arrived fron Germany and is working, then the stock will go up since additional cars delivered, even if it is Canada results in increased profits. If the plane or barge bringing the new assembly line crashes or sinks Tesla will be in trouble. I expect Fudsters to be out in full force with April Fools l iies about Elons death, explosions at the factory, and workers unionizing in an attempt to cover their shorts.

jordanrichard | 26. März 2018

Before worrying about where the stock is, look at where the rest of the market is. None of these “the sky if falling” articles about Tesla’s stock price mention what the rest of the market is doing.

Tesla-David | 27. März 2018

I have been holding long since buying our TSLA stock at IPO. Not worried about the direction Tesla is moving, and have faith in this company.

RadOne | 27. März 2018

The stock is retesting the lows from 11/2017. TSLA may be a good long term investment, but plenty of money being made in the short term in put options. May also be a good time to buy more.

bob | 27. März 2018

thanks for the heads up. It's on sale... I just bought more.

RadOne | 27. März 2018

Not looking good. Price broke down through support. Next stop?

exchaoordo | 27. März 2018

I'm not short or long but Really? Is this time not different because a Tesla caught fire and its passenger died in the crash?

Mike83 | 27. März 2018

Nope. Market is crashing. Netflix, Google, etc. are all down. There are 40,000 car deaths per year and 16 gasoline/diesel fires PER HOUR.
I like these stock sale days being a long term investor.

Yodrak. | 27. März 2018

The market is down ~2%, TSLA is down more than 8%. The reason TSLA is down so much relative to the market as a whole is not the recent crash per se, its that the NTSB is opening an investigation into the crash.

SamO | 27. März 2018

Nope. Has zero to do with any crashes. High flyers are down more than the market in general.

Now a slower delivery ramp COULD cause a larger dip . . .until production ramps . . .

joemar10 | 27. März 2018

For me, the worst part of this dip is that I don't have any readily available money to put into more TSLA stock. I'm in it for the long haul, so temporary ups and downs don't really bother me.

Ross1 | 27. März 2018

TSLA crash to $279 because of Model X fatality in LA

scabello800 | 27. März 2018

Vilas Capital has been on TV saying to short it. I see he is quoted as having a $15M hedge fund. If that is right, that is pretty sad.. or is it 15B? but I havent heard of the guy, maybe it is a dinky 15M hedge fund. I guess I can start a hedge with my own money and be on TV.

I do give Vilas credit in their analysis of the price/value of TSLA in terms of enterprise value. According to his numbers TSLA is twice the value of F. For that premium you need things to go perfectly.. and perfectly it is not happening.

Moody's downgraded TSLA today. There is a fatality in California that if linked to AutoPilot will cripple Tesla sales (if it is human error, the publicity doesnt help, but will fade away). Throw in the Uber fatality and it won't look like a bright autonomous vehicle future.

Long run cars are going to cause accidents but should be safer than human driving.. but i think it is the same feeling as an airplane. People dont mind driving a car and being "in control" versus getting into an airplane and praying for the best .. especially after a short spat of plane crashes.

Anyone who shorted TSLA in the last year is profitable now.. i wouldnt buy this thing right here.. the momentum trader would sell. The value investor does not need to rush. $280 or 310 a share.. it doesnt matter. I would hate to see it crumble down to 150.. see where she settles in a week or two first.

David N | 27. März 2018

Picked some more up today on the dip.
Most financial concerns have to do with bonds/notes that are coming due later this year and early next year.
A Model 3 production ramp up with quell some of those revenue concerns. But gotta get their act together. Hopefully the new equipment from Germany will solve some of the production issues.
I’m betting on Elon.

Should_I | 27. März 2018

Even IF and it is a big if the death was related to AP I don't see that hurting sales, stock price yes but not sales.

miroslavmirekbujna | 27. März 2018

It'll go back up. It's always like this.

Al1 | 27. März 2018

Time to buy again. Quite a few things play against Tesla right now, but none of them risks its long term prospects.

Model 3 ramp up continues and I have no doubt they will reach targets. Maybe a few weeks later, it does not that matter.

There is some uncertainty with China and trade war, but eventually will work out.

As for autopilot etc., Tesla will only come stronger out of this. If anything they held back software update in order not to rush half baked solution to the market. And will be rewarded for that.

People tend to project Uber story on Tesla. They will see very soon that Tesla is a very different story.

jerryk | 27. März 2018

The biggest question is the Model 3 delivery numbers. If they are again below the (now reduced) estimates the stock will get really punished. It is a last domino thing.

Mike83 | 27. März 2018

Mike83 | March 27, 2018
More avoided accidents with AP2 as we have personally experienced.

I wonder how many accidents have been avoided? Tesla is not related to Uber.

janendan | 27. März 2018

Tesla went public?

SO | 27. März 2018

NTSB has investigated Tesla before and turned out to be nothing. People overreact.

Yodrak. | 27. März 2018

"Has zero to do with any crashes."

The consensus is otherwise, but we may never really know.

jordanrichard | 27. März 2018

Yodrak, do you own a Tesla with AP?

Yodrak. | 27. März 2018

No yet, but my account rep (or whatever Tesla calls him) tells me I will by the end of June.

jordanrichard | 27. März 2018

Ok. AP can be kicked off in an absolute second by just grazing the brake pedal, just like cruise control on any car. If AP is doing something wrong, you kick it off and the car immediately starts slowing down. Human nature when something goes wrong in a car, is to stomp not the brake. AP requires you to be alert and looking out the windshield. If you are looking out the windshield just as any one should be doing in any car, and see the car heading for something that it shouldn’t be, as is implied by saying AP had something to do with causing this accident, human instinct would have you hit the brakes.

Yodrak. | 27. März 2018

I agree with your comments on AP, but I'm curious as to why you are asking me if I have a Tesla with AP?

jordanrichard | 27. März 2018

Because it sounded like you weren’t familiar with how AP works. Those who do know how it works, how it’s supposed to be used etc., know that all of these supposedly AP related accidents were operator error.

The most infamous one and I believe to be the first when AP was engaged, happened in FL when the car went under the trailer of a semi. The driver was not even looking through the windshield and never even attempted to hit the brakes even in vain.

Yodrak. | 28. März 2018

"it sounded like you weren’t familiar with how AP works"

? I haven't written anything about AP in any of my posts in this thread, until you asked me about it.

Yodrak. | 28. März 2018

"it sounded like you weren’t familiar with how AP works"

? I haven't written anything about AP in any of my posts in this thread, until you asked me about it.

RadOne | 29. März 2018

Stock price around $250. If it goes through this support level, may be $200 next.

Mike83 | 29. März 2018

Since I am buying I love it. The short manipulation benefits us. This happens in the market all the time. | 29. März 2018

Right there with you Mike83-- I've seen this play before...

Madatgascar | 29. März 2018

Comparisons to Ford using number of vehicles sold is absurd.
1) Teslas cost a lot more than Fords on average.
2) Tesla's margins are higher than Ford's.
3) Tesla is more vertically integrated; more of Ford's earnings pass through to suppliers.
4) The future is electric; Tesla's investments in gigafactory and SC network are in place.
5) Tesla has this whole energy division....

I could go on. The main thing is, Tesla is the future, Ford is the past. Immediate cash flow concerns will be daunting for sure, and something dramatic may happen. But can anyone imagine a scenario where they just close up shop on the machine that builds the cars everyone wants at a tidy gross profit?

wiboater4 | 29. März 2018

Would love to buy it at $200.

RadOne | 29. März 2018

If everyone here really is really interested in helping Tesla and not just enriching themselves, lend Tesla the money and purchase Tesla corporate bonds. They may be junk rated but have a high yield.

zoltan | 31. März 2018

Please correct me if I am wrong, but unless you buy stocks during an IPO, you don't invest in the company itself. you buy the stock from other traders (I would hesitate using the word "investor"). The only effect of the stock price changes on the company has something to do with public perception and maybe the ability of the company to take out loans. RadOne and others are right, if you want to help a company, buy their products.
You may ask, "but how about the owners and employees of the company, who get part of their rewards in stocks?". Yes, their "net worth" would be hurt by a stock price drop, but until they try to cash in, it is just a virtual "worth".

Al1 | 31. März 2018

You have ability to vote, and you will have your portion of potential dividends. Of course you are an investor. That's exactly how Buffett becomes an investor into any company he invests in. Most of them have had their IPO-s decades ago.

Also ability to raise capital is not a small thing. Capital is the main reason for any IPO and for any public company to remain public.

Besides ability to raise capital is the main point of attack these days. So of course whether you are buying company product, its stock or its bonds you are helping the company.

Al1 | 31. März 2018

Also there is nothing wrong in people's desire to enrich themselves. That's the main reason people are interested in the market in first place whether they buy stocks or high yield, but junk rated bonds.

pepcjim | 31. März 2018

I want to make a profit for sure, but my big reason is that I want this evolution out of the drain on oil and damage to our environment. I put my money where my mouth is.

zoltan | 31. März 2018

AI1: Thank you for mentioning ownership through stock possession. This is why we hear very often that CEOs have to consider "stockholder satisfaction" in their decisions. I would prefer to hear "customer satisfaction", increasing the value of the products/services to the consumers/customers as a driving force. Sometimes this seems to go against stock value maximization, as increasing customer value may be achieved by increasing costs (reducing profits), but on the long run, better products WILL generate higher sales volume that ultimately may lead to increase in stock value.

Yodrak. | 31. März 2018

"Please correct me if I am wrong, but unless you buy stocks during an IPO, you don't invest in the company itself."

The initial public offering is not necessarily the only time a company issues stock. There may be subsequent stock offerings.

neil | 31. März 2018

Why I own a Tesla car and do not own a share of stock.

Great product at a decent price. Risky company at an inflated price.

Everyone who reads this forum needs no convincing that the product is great.

But stock prices shouldn't be confused with love of companies. Would you buy the whole company today for 10 million dollars? of course you would. Would you buy the whole company today if you had a Trillion dollars? The answer is the flip. Of course you wouldn't. It's just just too much money for the firm. There are too many better investment options for a trillion dollars in cash. And after all buying a stock is so you can sell it at a higher price someday. If you bought Tesla Motors for a trillion dollars (which is about $5000 per share) you may have a better chance of return in an insured bank account.

So as the old joke goes, now that we know there IS a price that's too high for TSLA

But what about today's price? Well you just have to look at the alternatives available for 290 of your hard earned dollars. Just because you've made money in the stock historically, doesn't mean you will in the future. Microsoft is an interesting example. You could have bought it around the time of its IPO in the late 80's and made a fortune in the next dozen years until it peaked at about 60 dollars per share. Everyone was so optimistic about the future! Then the stock started to go down. The stock was too high. Business was fine, but you can't confuse business with stock price. And Microsoft then was a cash generator. It was coining money. Tesla still can't finance it's own operations, it needs to either borrow money or sell the public more stock to get the cash to move forward. Just saying

It took until over 15 years (yes years) until Microsoft shares got back to the 60 level.Fifteen years from now is the year 2033. Just saying.

I love my car. I love autopilot. the stock though ... at current prices .. who know.


RadOne | 31. März 2018

@AI1.Public companies issue stock to raise money. They make money at an IPO or future offering. Once the shares are on the secondary market, they do not directly benefit. High stock prices can be an indicator of the health of the company. Buffett is a legendary investor. He is known as a value investor and would never invest in a company without earnings. Not his style.

Mike83 | 31. März 2018

Warren Laments not investing in Google for example. He doesn't invest in something he doesn't understand. He is in his 80s and wisely is cautious. Missing out on Netflix, Amazon and now Tesla is ok if you worth 80 billion.

Mike83 | 31. März 2018

Warren Laments not investing in Google for example. He doesn't invest in something he doesn't understand. He is in his 80s and wisely is cautious. Missing out on Netflix, Amazon and now Tesla is ok if you worth 80 billion.

RadOne | 01. April 2018

Buying a stock in a company without earnings is very dangerous. I learned my lesson during the tech bubble.

babyjocko | 01. April 2018

"Buying a stock in a company without earnings is very dangerous. I learned my lesson during the tech bubble."

A speculative stock does not have earnings. But, the idea in buying a speculative stock is that it eventually will have earnings and lots of it. The intrigue of a speculative stock is its unique products. Although, Tesla introduces innovated methods for producing a car, the car is not unique. It's EV propulsion has been unique, but for how long?

Furthermore, Tesla has no profit in sight because its product is extremely expensive to scale. And, in order to make lots of profit, Tesla would need to scale its product many times over, each time burning more cash in doing so. A speculative stock worth investing in would have EPS trending upwards and burn rate trending downwards -- neither true with TSLA.

So then you may consider the time it may take Tesla to make a profit vs the amount of capital it will burn getting there. This leads to debt ratios -- can they be sustainable for this period of time. Can TSLA continue to fill the cash jar without having to sell more stock? Moody's just downgraded TSLA bonds -- not a good sign. When TSLA's debt/EBITDA ratio gets too high, banks will stop lending money. TSLA will then be forced to sell stock, which will certainly devalue its share price.

If it can do all of that and still manage to trend EPS upwards with an eventual profit in site, THEN it may be worth buying. But, by then TSLA would likely be <100. Most importantly, by then, its product will no longer be unique and thus their stock will no longer be intriguing. But, they'll likely be a buyout candidate.

That's the best future I see for TSLA. It's glory days as a speculative stock is over.