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Model X release schedule at the very least

Model X release schedule at the very least

Its quite simple at this point.

If X comes out this summer per Elon.

It will be the same schedule at the very least compared to the Model S release a few years back.

1-Spring time Signature S folks were contacted to build their cars, but no one else had access to the design studio.

2-Deliveries started in the summer

3-Test drives for reservation holders started in summer

4-Non Signature folks got to access full on design studio in the fall based on reservation number.

With Model X, I gather there will be a larger reveal by Springtime as they now have a fully operational well proven Factory-Assembly line.

Its also likely that the design studio might be available to view by more than just Signature folks this time around.

The only reason they might limit the design studio to Signature folks only... is to see what general order prefs are before they let the flood gates open for full public viewing.

David Trushin | 18. Januar 2015

Actually, it's the same schedule released a year ago, only a year later.

ian t.wa.us | 18. Januar 2015

Sounds about right.

NumberOne | 18. Januar 2015

I also think the timeline will look something like that, but I am not sure the design studio will be limited initially with the X as it was with the S. The difference this time is that they only made 15-20 cars per week during the first few months of S production. The assembly line is well established now, and they will be able to jump into the hundreds per week almost from the start.

The Signature cars, as was the case with the S, will have very few options. I expect most Sigs to price at $120K+. Much of the options for regular production vehicles will be standard on Sigs, but it will cost you.

georgehawley.fl.us | 18. Januar 2015

+1 @LeonardD: production lines are much bigger and more mature (currently 1200 cars/week growing to 2000 by year end.). MS experience will facilitate more rapid rollout of MX. Tesla will move faster this year in trying to maximize revenues so they have more cash to plow back into growth.

sg021.pa.us | 19. Januar 2015

Once the run of US Sigs is built, is it possible they will pause MX production for a few weeks? That would allow them to catch up on MS orders and see what kind of initial feedback they get on the MX.

Svenssons | 19. Januar 2015

@sg021.pa.us: I do not think they will halt the MS production because they are building some Model X. I do not think they will halt the production of MX just to get input either because it would take a couple of months before they get the input. They might however start with EU Signatures after the US ones and will therefore get some time recapitulate the delivered cars before starting with general production.

Number of cars produced the first week when productions starts will also be very low and how fast they will ramp up the production depends on several reasons. It will take some months to produce the Signatures just for US.

GLO | 19. Januar 2015

The productions lines are separate. Model S deliveries should not be affected at all by Model X production (per my visit to the factory last September).

sg021.pa.us | 19. Januar 2015

@Svenssons, @GlO - Good to know. I had been thinking both models were running, at least in large part, on the same production line.

ian t.wa.us | 19. Januar 2015

The factory shutdown last summer was to update the final assembly line to be able to handle a larger number of vehicles (of both models).

They are also adding a separate body assembly line (think robots welding the "cage" to the "skateboard") for the X.

A quote on this topic from the Q3 shareholder letter:

"To accommodate accelerating Model S demand and prepare for the rapidly growing order book of Model X reservations, we are investing to increase production to more than 2,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2015. We began this process with a production shutdown this summer to transition to our new, higher volume final assembly line and expand our Model S body center. The ramp to our target production rate took longer than expected due to system integration challenges, reducing our production by almost 2,000 vehicles. Being unable to increase production fast enough, not lack of demand, is a fair criticism of Tesla. That said, we expect our annual production will increase by over 50% in 2014, again in 2015 and probably for several years to follow. This is unusual in the car industry.

In contrast to Q3, actions to further increase capacity have been designed to be less disruptive, thus enabling us to increase output at a steadier and more predictable pace. For example, our Model X body center will initially be independent from our Model S body center, allowing us to start building Model X bodies without impacting Model S production. We have started to upgrade our second paint shop with state of the art paint application technology and a level of automation that will also have the capacity to cover Model 3 needs.

Future capacity investments extend to the Gigafactory where we have already started to pour concrete for the foundation. A modular build strategy is enabling us to scale construction, capital requirements and capacity commensurate with growing demand. Together with Panasonic we are making good progress toward first cell production in 2016, slightly earlier than originally scheduled. Starting operations earlier will reduce ramp-up risks for Model 3 and provide some potential expansion capacity for Model S and Model X."

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2992738106x0x791902/D...

Cheers!

eddeppman | 19. Januar 2015

Per my factory tour this past November, I was told both Model S and X will come on the same production line (there are now two final assembly lines running side-by-side). When we were there, P85Ds were being assembled. So when X production starts, they'll put the X body on the frame instead of an S body.

georgehawley.fl.us | 19. Januar 2015

Oh crap. You weren't supposed to say anything about that. Facts get in the way of endless speculation. Wait a minute. Now we can speculate about how they are going to allocate frames between MS and MX lines.

ronmerkord | 09. Februar 2015

Green Car Reports just interviewed a bunch of Model X vendors, who of course spoke off the record only. However, GCR put together a really good synopsis of the delays and their reasons.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096685_why-tesla-model-x-electric-s...

Ron
SigX #1015

vandacca | 09. Februar 2015

Thanks @ronmerkord for the link. Very interesting.

aljjr2 | 09. Februar 2015

Don't know whether encouraged or worried after reading. Took away great engineering to solve issues or great problems to be overcome. Guess wait till Wednesday for an update. Another delay of Model X is NOT something the investor community will embrace, neither will the reservation holders.

Lucythesplainer | 10. Februar 2015

Saw this during my obsessive trolling for EV/model X updates... https://transportevolved.com/2015/02/10/falcon-wing-doors-range-towing-c...

NumberOne | 10. Februar 2015

Saw that too, plus the other one. Interesting, but I think they could have come to the same conclusion simply reading all of the opinions expressed on this forum over the last year or so. I do not think I am usually obsessed about anything, but my interest in Model X could definitely be classified as an obsession. Perhaps it is because they have had my money for more than 2 years, or perhaps I want to sell my truck before I need new tires.

georgehawley.fl.us | 10. Februar 2015

The door issues sound challenging but not compelling. Minivans are pretty safe these days despite huge rear doors. Hinges could be an issue with the FWs but they have known that for years. Towing stress on motors sounds credible. If they have to cool the drive units they are going to have to offer an expensive towing option at a later date. Many people (like me) have their towing days behind them and won't pay for a towing feature.

I think they will be deliver the X in the third quarter come hell, high water, or towing.

Red Sage ca us | 10. Februar 2015

Yeah... I read that article without realizing it was just a breakdown of the GreenCarReports article that I skipped.

"...and now, a 2016 model-year car with an estimated launch date for Q3 this year."

Inaccurate. Tesla Motors does not date their cars as traditional automobile manufacturers do. Any cars built during 2015 are considered 2015 models.

"...the three reasons for the Tesla Model S delay nailed down: those famous falcon wing doors; range concerns; and towing capabilities."

Truly, range and towing should be considered the same concern. Tesla Motors stated the importance of class leading towing capabilities for Model X ages ago. But being able to move perhaps 6,000 to 7,500 lbs is of no use if you cannot span the 150 to 200 miles between Superchargers while doing so.

As for the rest, I agree with georgehawley.

primetime98 | 12. Februar 2015

I think the Signature Design Studio would probably be late spring, I would guess in May with Delivery in mid August. As for options being a Signature holder I would imagine the only real options would Performance and 3rd Row. What were the S Signature options? Either way I can't wait, it'd be a great birthday present to have the X in August.

Tony
Sig X #911

Brian H | 13. Februar 2015

911? Shoulda been reserved for emergency service.

primetime98 | 24. Februar 2015

What can I say? The luck of the draw (or wire transfer) I guess. Either way looking forward to getting it though would be disappointed if range was less than 250 that would be tough to swallow.

MandL | 25. Februar 2015

Where did this idea of the design studio being available to Sig reservation holders first come from? My husband and I had a sig Model S reservation and a standard one under different names and emails and we both got access at the same time. In fact, I don't think you had to login at all to access the design studio. Just to save the design to My Tesla.

NumberOne | 25. Februar 2015

Good idea to point that out. Everyone can order their cars at the same time, but the options will be different depending on whether you hold a standard or signature reservation. The reason why I did not reserve a sig, was (a) I reserved in 2012, and (b) it will likely come with options I would not want or need. That said, I will get the largest battery pack, tech package, cold weather and towing. I personally think towing should be standard, simply because I need a place for bicycles.

I think the special, as yet unknown features have to do with the tech package anyway. For those who do not know what they would want, the fact that options can be changed until the moment production of their vehicles begins will really help.

vandacca | 25. Februar 2015

@LeonardD, I'm in the exact same boat as yourself. I'm hoping that the "special" feature will be greater-than-expected range and side-view cameras. :)

primetime98 | 25. Februar 2015

Is anyone else worried about the range? I'm starting to get concerned it will be in the 220-230 range with the 85 because of weight and mirrors. I hope I'm wrong, but it would be disconcerting if that were the case. I think it will be closer to 250-260, I am starting to get nervous.

vandacca | 25. Februar 2015

There is a very big incentive for Tesla to reach a 300 mile range (EV Tax Credits). I suspect that eventually Tesla will be able to produce all their vehicles with a 300+ mile range.

Right now, I know there is a lot of things going against the Model-X with respect to range (e.g. more weight, bigger frontal area, etc.) but I think a big part of the Model-X delay has to do with increasing the range.

For example, rumour has it that the new Model-X batteries will be significantly less weight than the Model-S (for same kWh) and I'm hoping that side-view cameras will improve aerodynamics to the point where the Model-X may have a very similar range as the Model-S.

Then there is a part of me that hopes that Tesla will somehow manage to surpass the current Model-S range (e.g. close to 300 miles), but I put the odds of that accomplishment being less than 50%.

georgehawley.fl.us | 26. Februar 2015

Lighter batteries with the same pack capacity in the form of a lighter battery pack make almost no difference. Batteries with more capacity per unit weight in the form of a pack that weighs the same but has a greater KWh capacity.make a big difference.

Red Sage ca us | 26. Februar 2015

Per the recent Q4 2014 Earnings Report, this is due to arrive in six months. That would be August 2015. Personally, I hope it will be July. That will make it more likely that 12,000-to-16,000 units are delivered, with close to 16,000-to-20,000 built.

vperl | 27. April 2015

Red, been spending time in Amsterdam ?

Red Sage ca us | 27. April 2015

Don't drink, don't smoke... It must be something inside.

vperl | 02. Mai 2015

Snorting ?