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Model X Reservation Tally

Model X Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model X reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model S Reservation Tally can be found here:

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

US
S 140 (June 20, 2012)
P 1,206 (July 10, 2012)

Canada
S 3 (February 23, 2012)
P 50 (May 9, 2012)

Europe
S 12 (March 19, 2012)
P 87 (July 16, 2012)

Gross Total: 1,498 - July 16, 2012

S = Signature Series (Model X)
P = General Production (Model X)

Roamer@AZ USA | 05. Juni 2014

Just kidding. Let's see some new VIN's. Misery loves company. We need more people sharing in the wait.

Lubdub | 05. Juni 2014

2 negatives, one positive = positive. Yeah Right

dc661 | 06. Juni 2014

615 new reservations since I placed mine exactly 1 month ago. Averaging about 20 per day.

toby_wan_kenoby | 06. Juni 2014

@ designs900
Please stop with your hidden SPAM links

I flagged you as inappropriate

Brian H | 08. Juni 2014

fischa;
lose x 2.

fawu | 15. Juni 2014

Just reserved. #10,644.

Tedsla.va.us | 16. Juni 2014

About 730/month since 4/13, when I placed #9184.

tristan.schmelcher | 20. Juni 2014

US, general production, #10850

drhernes | 21. Juni 2014

Europe, Norway - Sig #363

AlMc | 21. Juni 2014

Congrats all: 200+ new reservations in 5 days! nice

5/15-5/20: P #10644 to 10850

toby_wan_kenoby | 22. Juni 2014

@AIMc
It can be 4 days or 6 days, you don't know the time of order placement.
So the daily rate for that period is between 34.3 and 51.5

The long term average is something like 23 a day. I would expect things to speed up as more information makes it out.

drbob | 22. Juni 2014

I'm #10,935, made reservation for an X at 5 pm on Jun 22 (so I guess another 150 since yesterday!)

Brian H | 23. Juni 2014

The rate is getting spikey!

Paul Carter | 23. Juni 2014

@Brian H, hey that's my line. :P

mattwoz | 23. Juni 2014

#10,955, surprise birthday present for wife!
6/23

Sailor | 26. Juni 2014

My wife reserved the X last night, around 7:30
Res# 11013.

Davidinkl | 26. Juni 2014

11022 on 6-26

brian.werner | 28. Juni 2014

11082 TODAY 6.28 - pretty much really excited!!

CRASCH | 30. Juni 2014

11135 Today 6/30 - Really excited!!!

US production

Ordering an S too in a few weeks.

zakharevsky | 02. Juli 2014

Reserved the gen. production Model X a while ago (Canada): #355

danm | 03. Juli 2014

Reserved my Model X yesterday: Reservation 11,176.

georgehawley.fl.us | 03. Juli 2014

It looks like reservations for model X are coming in at an average of about 20/day.. If full production begins at the end of June 2015, there will be roughly 18,500 reservations by that time. Model S run rate will be about 3,000/month by the end of 2014 or about 100/day. If model X vehicles are shipped at a modest rate in 1H15, say an average of 20/day or about 700 by mid 2015, there will be about 18,000 reservations left to be filled. If Model X ships at an average rate of 100/day through the end of 2015, they will have satisfied all the reservations made prior to 1H2015 but, if orders come in at a continued 20 per day, they will still have a backlog of about 3600 orders at year end. They will have shipped about 18,500 Model X vehicles at an average price of say $100K equating to about $1.85B in sales of model X. If worldwide demand for Model S continues to be strong, Tesla could ship in excess of 40 K at maybe $90k per sedan or $3.6 B in revenue for a total of $5.4B in approximate total revenues for the year up from about $95K X 35K Model S sedans in 2014 or about $3.8B in 2014. That would be about a 37% year over year revenue growth. If they can maintain an overall average of 30% gross margin, they would realize a gross profit of about $1.6B in 2015. To build about 60,000 vehicles in 2015 will require on the order of 420 million Li ion cells! This is a tall order and one can appreciate why they need to get the "gigafactory" going by 2016. With a reservation number in the low 9,000 area I should expect a model X around the beginning of October next year. How's my math?

Paul Carter | 03. Juli 2014

georgehawley:
20 per day is since inception, its 48.9 global per day in June(15 % increase from May)

I think you better set your delivery estimate to be 3 months longer at least! I think you'll be lucky to get it by Jan 2016.

I've done some modelling of deliveries, but it needs an update based on the fact deliveries aren't expected until Spring 2015 (a 3 month delay since my last model). Also I'll need to account for other countries.

NumberOne | 03. Juli 2014

Tesla currently is increasing their capacity to 1000 per week, so if we say that starting in April 500 Model S and 500 Model X (if Model X can be ramped up to max production) per week, (of course this is not even a guess,) that will yield roughly 2000 Model X vehicles per month. Of course it is possible that about 2000-3000 could be produced from December to April, the total possible number of Model X deliveries will be around 20,000 by the end of December 2015.

Something that the media still does not seem to understand is the fact that reservations are not orders, and deliveries are not sales. It is not possible to sell more than what is produced, but the delivery time varies. All vehicles are sold before they are delivered and the production is somewhat supply constrained despite the fact that the capacity to produce 1,000 cars per week will soon exist.

As of today, the total number of world wide reservations is approximately 17000, most of which are in the U.S. (about 12400). There may be well over 20,000 reservations before any Model X's arrive at galleries. It is entirely possible that most people who either have a reservation or make one before September, will be able to drive their Model X before the end of 2015.

Brian H | 03. Juli 2014

FYI, after deliveries began for the MS, orders jumped to 50-70 per day. So that's the rate to use for MX in 2015!

Red Sage ca us | 04. Juli 2014

I don't know about other countries... But in the US competing marques in this market segment sell their Crossovers at a 3:1 or 4:1 rate over their Sedans. I would not be surprised to see the Model X yield a similar ratio over sales of Model S. Once Tesla Motors is able to produce 25,000 Model S and 75,000 Model X for sale in North America annually, they will be able to sell every single one of them.

jzchen2276 | 04. Juli 2014

Model X P (non-Signature) Reservation Sequence #11,235. I'm kind of nervous though, since just after I reserved I found news of the model S that split in half.

AlMc | 04. Juli 2014

jzchen: No worries. The model S (and presumably the X that is built on the same platform) is the safest car on the road, by far.

vandacca | 06. Juli 2014

Just in case anyone else wants to read about it, here is one link:

Split_Tesla

--Dan

NumberOne | 06. Juli 2014

The split in half thing happened at an extremely high speed, and after multiple collisions. I do not think anyone other than a car thief or similar type will ever be involved an the kind of accident that can cause such damage. There is a thread in the Model S forum that details the crash as well as some opinions http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/stolen-tesla-crashed-ripped-half...

You cannot be in a safer car with your family even if someone crashes into you.

Lubdub | 06. Juli 2014

But, if it's true that the driver survived, that is one great positive in terms of safety. And even though there was a fire, there was no exploding gas tank. Both Positives.

Red Sage ca us | 07. Juli 2014

I'm pretty sure the universal reaction is something along the lines of, "Oh. What a pitiful waste of life... Cut short in the prime of... Wait... What? That guy is ALIVE?!? Dude, I want one of THOSE CARS!"

Lubdub | 07. Juli 2014

well he wont get into the Darwin awards, shame

rmoy88 | 08. Juli 2014

my reservation #11334 on 7/8/2014 San Francisco, Cal. USA

rmoy88 | 08. Juli 2014

my reservation #11334 on 7/8/2014 San Francisco, Cal. USA

cdave | 09. Juli 2014

A local Tesla rep said something interesting when I asked about the Model X and mentioned my reservation number. "Don't assume the reservation number corresponds with how many reservations there are. Tesla is a public company and may not want the number of reserved Model Xs to be disclosed".

No idea if this person knows what they are talking about but I have noticed that Tesla reps stay pretty close to the company script.

timf2001 | 09. Juli 2014

What they said is absolutely true. The reservation number tells you how many people placed reservations before you, but not how many still actively hold their reservation. Tesla does not disclose how many reservations have been canceled and refunded.

NumberOne | 09. Juli 2014

There has been too many sequentially close reservation numbers not to be at least somewhat accurate. The reservation rate has also increased steadily as production approaches, so I would take this particular sales rep's opinion with a grain of salt. There are separate reservation sequences for the US, Canada, the EU and Asia, so the reservation numbers in the US cannot be used as an indicator of the total reservations.

There has been some cancellations, because people change their minds and their reservation numbers simply disappeared, but those are comparatively few.

rmoy88 | 09. Juli 2014

Either true or not, your number still stand, if people change their mind on not to buy the car, then people will move closer to their purchase of the car.

Brian H | 10. Juli 2014

rmoy;
Yes, people have been known to encourage those with lower reservation #s to cancel.

TYC911 | 12. Juli 2014

my reservation Canada #618 on 7/12/2014 Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Paul Carter | 13. Juli 2014

Congrats TYC911! I'm in Vancouver as well.

Mikkelauda | 18. Juli 2014

My reservation #406 Signature, Europe, Norway

vperl | 18. Juli 2014

rmoy88, here in Oregon 11229 .

hmn4858 | 19. Juli 2014

Just got mine... 11,574 in MA.

ghtrue | 20. Juli 2014

My number: 11599 in CA.

jakob | 21. Juli 2014

10th April: #1843 in Bergen, Norway.

NumberOne | 21. Juli 2014

According to the latest posts here
EU Sig 422 Not updated since May 9, 2014
EU prod 1973 Not Updated since May 13, 2014
Canada Prod 618 As of July 12, 2014
US Sig 1200
US Prod 11599 As of July 20, 2014

The total from only the above info which is documented in this thread, is 15812

Note that the difference for EU prod over 1 month was about 100, so it we add 200 for May 14 to July 21 we could estimate accurately that the EU signatures are now closed at 500, there are 2173 Production Model X reservations and most likely more than 1,000 Chinese reservations.

This would indicate that there are more than 17,000 reservations already.

Perhaps michiganmodels can edit his original post to reflect the current numbers.

NumberOne | 21. Juli 2014

Great. The numbers from TMC is close to what I said but also indicates over 100 more sigs for the US and 49 for CA and approx. 1700 for china which brings the total to more than 18,000 which is not too shabby considering the production prototypes are not even out and little is known about the final specs.

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