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My Model of Tesla through 2013

My Model of Tesla through 2013

Hey guys,

I've modeled out Tesla's volume through 2013. I tried to be as conservative as possible since I am a huge fan of Tesla, but I'm still coming up with some pretty encouraging values.

You can view the link below or you can download the excel spreadsheet and play with the figures yourselves. Everything is driven through the quantities of the cars sold. You can also figure out the price target using the little calculator I've provided in the sheet.

Thoughts and adjustments much appreciated :D

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3A3-cUX1oy6eTdKZmNmalFPNm8/edit?usp=sha...

Brian H | 09. August 2013

Actually, it's thru 2023. 10 years. You can edit the header using the edit up on the logo.

Brian H | 09. August 2013

You know that the GenIII GM is planned to be somewhat smaller than 25%? And that there will be a GenIII-X? and probably other models, like a van, convertable, pickup, and new Roadster?

TDurden.or.us | 10. August 2013

Should be very interesting to see how the Model S changes over the next decade.

Cindy I II III | 12. August 2013

Interesting analysis. Thank you for sharing.

What should be the assumption to translate GM to net earning? In today's low interest environment, what should the discount rate be for net present value calculation? In other words, what is your valuation for what Tesla share price should be? Are there 100 million shares outstanding or something?