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SuperCharger Betting Pool ........ And the Winner is ....

SuperCharger Betting Pool ........ And the Winner is ....

The SuperCharger announcement is due in about a week, so let the betting begin!

1. Charge Time - currently 30 minutes for 50% recharge. What will the new rate be? 20 min, 15, 10?

2. Charge Level - currently slows down after reaching 50% of full charge. What will be the new cutoff level? 60%, 70, 80?

3. Location Spacing - currently 150 mile target distance between SC stations. New target? 120 miles, 100, 80?

The SC network is a unique competitive advantage of Tesla. I expect they will leverage it more and more to propel adoption. It's absolutely unparalleled in the gasoline world.

How quickly and extensively they enhance the network will have a dramatic effect on their growth rate. Improvements on the three metrics above are high value gains.

This is a rare, historic moment where one company, under a single CEO, can play both the roles that Ford and Standard Oil did a century ago. Except this time around, it will get built right, by someone with a vision for a long term solution that can sustain us indefinitely.

The poster with the best combined score gets bragging rights, (and a pinch of immortality) in the forum archives of one of this century's most important enterprises.

Transportation gets reinvented. Is this awesome, or what?

Mike D | 30. Mai 2013

Ha! Mark K, looks like a bookie took your betting pool seriously. http://www.sportsinteraction.com/specials/financial-business-betting-lines/

It's actually quite interesting to see because these odds makers crunch numbers to come to their favored. That being said we are all basing things off of the same small amount of information. I'm keeping my projections the same as I have above! : )

Here's what they are showing for each as the favorite (they are all over/under):
Elon announces coast-to-coast drive: No
Battery Swap: Yes
Miles of range per hours of charge: Under 325 miles
Distance between stations: 111 - 120 miles
Charge Time: 10 - 15 mins & 15 - 20 mins both come in as favorites

Will be interesting to see the outcome. Hopefully the announcement doesn't get delayed anymore than it already has.

stimeygee | 30. Mai 2013

15 mins
50%
100 miles

prytog | 30. Mai 2013

1. 25 min
2. 80%
3. 150 miles

#1, 20% more juice = 16.67% faster, 5 min less
#2, Now comfortable jamming electrons until 80% full
#3, Original plan, long distance travel. Maybe later infill more SC, but not now

Mark K | 30. Mai 2013

Announcement due in 5 minutes -

Crowdsourced average guesses to date are:

1. 17 minutes (to fill half)

2. 68% (SOC before slowdown)

3. 119 miles. (SuperCharger target density)

I think battery swap will be by a separate announcement on 20 June.

We'll find out at 10:30!

cgiGuy | 30. Mai 2013

It's 10:30 PST. All bets are closed.

Mark Z | 30. Mai 2013

One reporter asked about the battery swap. Elon's response:

"Today is about charging." "Pack swap is not a brilliant idea... can be done on a small scale."

He mentioned the economy of scale.

A topic for the future.

Mark K | 30. Mai 2013

Crowd wisdom is remarkably good.

We'll tabulate results relative to projections and declare a winner soon.

All three metrics did indeed improve - charge rate, level for slowdown, and location density (in early adoption states).

Change in slowdown threshold was operative in getting 200 miles in 30 min.

All in all, today's announcement was a very strong step forward.

Mark K | 30. Mai 2013

Also battery swap announcement is separate as expected. Elon's language appeared to play down its significance, which suggests it may be just main pack swapping for a small segment to qualify for ZEVs.

Mike C | 30. Mai 2013

Good call on the slowdown point, Mark K. I think my 80 mile density and 22.5 minutes were pretty close.

DouglasR | 30. Mai 2013

1. He said 20 minutes to charge up, but that is clearly for more than a half charge. More like 20 minutes for 200 miles, or half the time it takes currently.

2. He expressly stated that the SOC would be higher before the charge rate begins to taper. I believe it will begin to taper around 2/3 SOC, but I would have to review the call (and last night's interview) to be sure.

3. He said 80-100 miles between stations in populated areas. Eventually, no one will be more than 200 miles from a SC.

4. The pace of construction is picking up. I count 18 more stations (for a total of 26) by the end of June, and around 80 total by the end of the year. By 2015, the entire country will be built out, with over 200 stations. Also, each station will have more charging ports.

He also mentioned that, eventually, all stations will have solar charging and battery backup (around 500 kWh of backup).

I'll leave it to Mark K to translate this info into numbers for the betting pool.

negarholger | 30. Mai 2013

Milford has a twin, Gilroy gets one by fall.

Brian H | 30. Mai 2013

" ... is not a brilliant [new] idea ... "

I think that's how that phrasing should be understood.

Mark K | 31. Mai 2013

DouglasR - Good synopsis of the call. I listened to each of Elon's comments, and although some are indefinite, here's how TM came out on the numbers we projected:

1. 15 minutes (to 50% fill) Calculated from new 66% in 20 min, or half the current 30 min time for 50%.

2. 66%. New SOC threshold for charge slowdown is about 2/3 full..

3. 80 miles. Elon said 80-100, but really 80 for high use areas. We'll interpret that as the new long term target.

The crowd got pretty close:

1. 17 minutes. (Deviation of 2/15 or 13%)

2. 68%. SOC. (2/66 or 3%)

3. 119 miles. (39/80 or 49%). Largest error, but greyest area since it's not homogeneous across country.

Composite score (13% +3% + 49%)/3= 22% composite error.

So, who had the lowest composite error? Finalist are: David59 and markapeterman.

markapeterman

1. 15 min fill time, a 0% error.

2. 80% SOC. - 14/66= 21% error.

3. 75 Miles - 5/80=6% error.

Composite score of (0+21+6) / 3 = 9%

David59

1. 15 min fill time, a 0% error.

2. 50% SOC. - 16/66= 24% error.

3. 75 Miles - 5/80=6% error.

Composite score of (0+24+6) / 3 = 10%

So I think we have a winner, by a nose -

markapeterman - Congratulations, you predicted the future better than anyone!

Your composite error score was the lowest, and more than twice as precise as the crowd sourced average.

As you bask in the glory of your victory, please feel free to post whatever guided your thinking to produce the most accurate projection.

Your comments will be part of what historians read a hundred years from now, to understand what was happening when the world changed significantly.

Well done markapeterman!

DouglasR | 31. Mai 2013

@markapeterman - What are your thoughts about next year's Superbowl?

Brian H | 31. Mai 2013

Someone always comes closest to guessing the number of jellybeans in the jar. But never twice.

DouglasR | 31. Mai 2013

Brian, you mean like even a broken clock is right twice a day?

Mike C | 31. Mai 2013

I don't recall anything specific saying the speed doesn't taper until 2/3s full, did I miss something?

J.T. | 31. Mai 2013

There are always 2845 jelly beans.

cerjor | 31. Mai 2013

By 2015 the winners will be all Tesla owners (with supercharger capability.)

nickjhowe | 31. Mai 2013

@Mike C - I've been wondering about that myself. I don't recall Elon saying 2/3.

Mark K | 31. Mai 2013

The advances with the Supercharger are definitely a big win for Model S drivers.

You can boil down all the technical details to this:

2X jump in Charge Speed.

riceuguy | 31. Mai 2013

From Chicago Tribune: "can charge 2/3 of a Model S battery in 20 minutes, said Elon Musk"

Brian H | 31. Mai 2013

The shorter the charge time, the less need for "entertaining" stops.

Andre-nl | 01. Juni 2013

Mark K,

You say "1. 15 minutes (to 50% fill) Calculated from new 66% in 20 min, or half the current 30 min time for 50%."

I think that isn't right. The supercharger page claims 200 miles in 30 min. Since Tesla always uses the 300 miles ideal range as a benchmark, that is 2/3 in 30 min, not 20.

hsadler | 01. Juni 2013

Damn! And I had already rented a Tux for the award ceremony!!

erici | 25. August 2013

I hoping Bill Gates gets it right at Terrapower with the travelling wave reactor.

Run the entire country for at least 100 years just on the already-existing nuclear waste alone.

erici | 25. August 2013

Posted on wrong topic -- wish posts could be removed.

Brian H | 25. August 2013

erici;
If you want to follow an even better initiative, check out LPPhysics.com and the booster site Focusfusion.org .

Aerodyne | 24. April 2020

Another zombie thread...flagged

Aerodyne | 01. Mai 2020

Flagged!

SnowFlake | 01. Mai 2020

Wow, those days of Excitement...

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