Excellent video featuring J.B. talking about future battery tech.
All the best,
Yeah. I really like that on the Aggressive end, JB Straubel has witnessed improvements of ~40% in energy density in as little as five years. I love that he notes how it is clear energy density for lithium ion battery technology at least doubles ever ten years, and he sees no reason for that to stop within the next two decades. I especially enjoy that even with modest improvements of 7%-8% in energy density per year, you double the capacity of batteries, and halve the cost per kWh as a result, every nine years or so. These are points that are greatly debated, mostly misunderstood, and largely disputed by Naysayers.
Aggressively speaking, I would not be surprised to see a 135 kWh battery pack arrive for the Tesla Model S and Model X in 2016. I'm often accused of being too optimistic in this regard. Still, if you will, dream a little dream with me:
PROJECTED MAXIMUM BATTERY PACK CAPACITIES
GROWTH 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032
MASSIVE 53 91 156 267 457 784 1343
AGGRESSIVE 53 85 135 220 340 540 900
REGRESSIVE 53 91 144 211 288 367 423
PENSIVE 53 85 111 146 191 248 323
Re the doubling time, heard of the "Rule of 72"? The product of the rate and # of periods is always ~72. So 7% takes 10.3 yrs, 8% takes 9 yrs.
Many key excerpts pulled here, verbatim: http://teslamondo.com/2014/08/13/jb-straubel-talks-battery-storage/
Besides improvements in battery tech, Tesla is likely to improve auto design to make the vehicles lighter while improving safety, lowering cost. The efficiency of the electrical system, including inverters, power controls, etc will also improve. Tesla has access to SpaceX engineers. An auto like Model S could shed a few hundred lbs over time. While increasing MTBF.
I won't be satisfied till the weight is negative, and it has anti-grav drive!
Brian, you may trust your needs will be satisfied... 'soon'.
No, I'm satisfied that I'll never be satisfied.
@Brian H | AUGUST 18, 2014
"No, I'm satisfied that I'll never be satisfied."
Nor will I.
Very interesting insight into the company, one of the few we get. The speaker seemed more excited by large Tesla energy storage systems than cars! This would make solar and wind power very compelling and would be the tipping point in supplanting gas and oil economies. Needless to say, this would be a revolutionary development for the world in many ways.
I once tried to make the case that Tesla might make more money selling batteries than in selling cars...this might actually work out that way.
The fear might be that batteries become a commodity and overseas companies might simply copy Tesla batteries and then dump them on the market.