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What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

Hoping this thread might pick up steam as TSLA stock goes through some amazing intra-day and open/closing swings due to the large short interest (I'm assuming).

For instance: Yesterday the stock dipped really low at closing so I bought. Today it jumped back up and I sold for a healthy profit.

Why did the stock dip yesterday and then rise so much today? I didn't see any news that would justify it.

nomoDinos @ca.us | 10. Februar 2014

(Crap, acrophobia)

Captain_Zap | 10. Februar 2014

Or is it stock vertigo?

Mathew98 | 10. Februar 2014

Is it wrong of me to sell the covered $215 call options for next week?

podoffice | 10. Februar 2014

What happens to the Class action law suit that was filed when the stock dropped after its last high? Does it get dropped too? Or do they still have a case because for a while the stock price dropped?

nomoDinos @ca.us | 10. Februar 2014

Vertigoraphobia.

flyjeffva | 10. Februar 2014

@Mathew98, could you live with it if they get called away? Is that risk worth $7.50 per share? For me the answer is NO.

flyjeffva | 10. Februar 2014

@Mathew98, on the other hand, that is a pretty outrageous premium for an option that far out of the money that expires so soon.

What does your crystal ball say?

Mathew98 | 10. Februar 2014

@flyjeffva - Actually that is my price target anyway. So I don't mind getting called away at 215 + 7 and change.

Even if you bought today at a high of 199 and sell it for 222 next Friday, that is a great 11% return in two weeks.

flyjeffva | 10. Februar 2014

@Mathew98, Next Friday is 3 days after the earnings call. Good news could spike the stock. I would not want to risk loosing my ownership in Tesla.

I believe their success to date is the tip of the iceberg. Model S is the best car in the world with no competition on the horizon. Model S will only be trumped by Model X. I want to stay with them for the long run.

Mathew98 | 10. Februar 2014

True, but I still have a core holding for the long haul. It is all about locking in a portion of huge gain in a short span. One never goes broke realizing a profit...

nomoDinos @ca.us | 10. Februar 2014

Mathew - I'm struggling with that very same thought again. I always become simultaneously giddy and nervous when TSLA shoots up like this. I intend to stay in for the long-haul (at least until 2017-18) when the ME has a chance to show its stuff, but this keeps turning into some serious money relative to my risk tolerance. If this were Vegas, I'd have left the table at $190!

rdalcanto | 10. Februar 2014

It made nice gains today because of the excellent news out of China regarding government subsidies for EVs. $200/share is nothing compared to where TSLA is going to be in 5 years. Buy and Hold baby, Buy and Hold! :)

Mathew98 | 10. Februar 2014

Sadly TM may not be eligible for the Chinese EV subsidies. What's worse is that MS is not exempt from the license plate lottery process intended for ICE cars. MS should be exempt from it like the rest of the domestic EV's.

I think lots of shorts covered based on this news even though it has no impact on MS sales in China.

dimabear | 10. Februar 2014

If it gets called away, you can always get back in by (1) buying outright, or (2) selling a put against it and hope to be called and keep the premium collected, or (3) buy a call and exercise it.

flyjeffva | 10. Februar 2014

@dimabear, If you buy a call and exercise it, you pay more than if you just buy the stock.

AlMc | 10. Februar 2014

I believe much of the positive catalysts (NHTSA, 6900 Q4 production and associated profit) are probably built into the stock. I would NOT be selling now as I think the shorts will keep the price going up or not dropping much as they will buy up stock under 190 and give price support if that happens.

Guidance at the ER will be the key to blasting (and more importantly staying) above $200. If we get great info on production ramp/China demand we will get a nice boost.

Good luck. If you hold onto your shares you can deny the shorts sales to buy and drive up the price.

dborn @nsw.au | 10. Februar 2014

What effect, if any would you expect for an announcement of RHD production/ delivery next week?

dimabear | 10. Februar 2014

@ flyjeffva, yep i totally agree you end up paying more. I was just trying to present possible ways for mathew98 to get back into position.

if that were me, and i absolutely had to get back into a long position, i'd be selling a weekly put just under existing price and keep collecting premium until assigned

flyjeffva | 10. Februar 2014

@dimabear, That is a good strategy! Wish I had sold Feb 22 195 Puts yesterday :)

carlk | 10. Februar 2014

"Buy and Hold baby, Buy and Hold! :)"

Couldn't agree more.

"If you buy a call and exercise it, you pay more than if you just buy the stock."

On the other hand you leverage you capital and will be able to buy more shares this way. It also limits your loss without having to use stop order. Buy Leap call (long expiration) and you have the choice of either sell the call or excercise when stock goes up.

Mathew98 | 10. Februar 2014

@dimabear- I just closed out the Feb 22 $165 puts and opened the Feb $190 puts this morning. So I'll be "forced" to buy them back around 180 level.

Any one else up for playing strangles, straddles, iron condors, etc?

Warning: Options are not for the faint of heart...

nomoDinos @ca.us | 10. Februar 2014

Yeah... ya lost me at strangles, Mat.

dimabear | 11. Februar 2014

Nice Mathew98! I've never understood how iron condors work for retail investors. You'd have 4x commission fees for the 4 positions, and also hope the underlying stays in a trading range. I do like strangles though. Seems TSLA has some great premium to sell strangles on. Too bad my thinkorswim doesn't work anymore on my Mac (OS is too old).

This recent run up in TSLA is kinda making me nervous though...thinking of going a collar route to protect the downside.

dimabear | 11. Februar 2014

@ carlk - yep!

dimabear | 11. Februar 2014

I meant too bad my thinkorswim doesn't work b/c I can't see the implied volatility and probability of touch/OTM

Mathew98 | 11. Februar 2014

@NoMoDinos - "Show me the MONEY!!!" - A quote from Jerry McGuire

jackan | 11. Februar 2014

New high of 202$ today. Woohoo!

nomoDinos @ca.us | 11. Februar 2014

Mat - haha, exactly! It's against my nature, but I'm gonna leave it all in. I just won't look down, or the vertigoraphobia will kick in again. ($202, yikes!)

KevinR.co.us | 11. Februar 2014

It should be a fun week. More trolls in the forums + the inevitable Tesla surprises = one sweet ride on TSLA (to match my sweet ride in a Tesla). I don't think we have seen the full squeeze for this quarter play out yet. The only real fires that are associated with Tesla are the burned shorts.....

Captain_Zap | 11. Februar 2014

My best stock play is called "certificates under the mattress". My timing isn't always that great but I know when it the stock looks cheap to me. In the past I routinely sold too soon.
Not this time.

Sudre_ | 13. Februar 2014

I think it is about time the shorts start stocking up on large three prong traitor hitches.

TSLAholic | 13. Februar 2014

The Toronto incident may provide yet another opportunity to increase your positions boys & gals.

Mathew98 | 20. Februar 2014

Wow, the $190 and $200 Feb put premiums lost 98% and 90% overnight. Not bad to short them for a few days.

Bummer, looks like my short $215 Feb call may not get exercised after all.

Thanks shorties, the strangle worked out great! Not bad for a two weeks position...

nickjhowe | 25. Februar 2014

Currently trading at 256 - up 18% today after Morgan Stanley raised the target price to $320 a share. Also buzz building on the gigafactory announcement.

Gulp.

NKYTA | 25. Februar 2014

What a crazy ride...

Ohms.Law | 25. Februar 2014

Disruptive alright. Disruptive to the shorts.

nomoDinos @ca.us | 25. Februar 2014

Whaaaaaa???...

tlemcke | 25. Februar 2014

You think that maybe the stock is gotten a little too high? $1.1 million in market cap for every car it expects to sell this year? I love my P85 but time to short.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/25/morgan-stanleys-utopian...

Mathew98 | 25. Februar 2014

Ya know, it was already worth $1 million per car for 2013 at the end of last year.

The article's figure is incorrect. At the current market cap of $31.54B and the projected 35,000 units sales for 2014, the company is only being valued at $900K per car. It is $200K per car less than what da Fool is stating.

SamO | 25. Februar 2014

And Consumer Reports named it THE top pick of 2014 best overall car.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/02/25/consumer-reports-aut...

eddiemoy | 25. Februar 2014

I wouldn't short a stock that has ~30M share already short... i think all you doing is selling to old shorts who buying to cover their f'ed up short position. Don't think the short squeeze is over yet.

Look at that moron Doug Kass who double down his Tesla short, he is F'ed! he is suppose to be one of the smart ones, just goes to show you can't predict where this stock will go.

I was on the ride called Rambus back in 2000, went from 67 to 680 in one month. One of the days it went up $120!!! Now that stock also had a huge short position. Wonder if we will get that type of squeeze.

Mathew98 | 25. Februar 2014

Yo Eddie, are you still long RMBS? I hear they settled all the court cases with the top four manufacturers and expect to collect royalty from all the major suppliers.

eddiemoy | 25. Februar 2014

that stock broke my heart, how the major ram manufactures colluded to rub rambus out and lied to intel about the yields!! so sad... no i don't have any more. they had really awesome tech that is now in all of dram! so sad so sad...

now that dram costs nothing, royalties are nothing. wouldn't get back in, think they are not going anywhere.

Brian H | 25. Februar 2014

That's new car sales for the year. Total will be about 60K sold by that time.

Jamon | 25. Februar 2014

Last May when the stock price was $55 and the short squeeze was imminent, I was trying to set a price in my head that I would be willing to sell. The good @Captain_Zap mentioned regrets about selling Microsoft in 1989 when they were in a similar (stock price) position as Tesla is in today. I did some soul searching and decided I will hold TSLA for the long long term. Today I looked up MSFT historical charts to see how it compares with TSLA. For those who fear that TSLA is too high right now (of course that very well could be true), hopefully these charts will give you the intestinal fortitude to hold on for the long term!

Charts courtesy of Google Finance (hopefully they will paste here successfully).

Here is TSLA from IPO until today (up 13x in 3.5 years):

Looks fairly similar to MSFT after IPO (up 13x in 5 years):

13x is a ridiculously good return and it feels like there is no way it could keep going higher. But if TSLA behaves anything like MSFT in the future, this could really be just the very beginning (of course there can be many debates about whether and how TSLA of today would compare with MSFT of the 80's, but for this discussion let's just assume it's possible).

This chart shows the following 5 years after MSFT hit that 13x increase from IPO. The red cross shows where you would have sold if you bailed after the 13x increase. Holding 5 more years yielded an additional 5x return (equivalent to TSLA at $1,250 in 2019):

Now look 10 years after MSFT hit the 13x. The red cross looks almost no different from the IPO. Holding 10 more years yielded 25x additional return (equivalent to TSLA at $6,250 in 2024)!

Finally, look at MSFT lifetime chart. After the 13x increase, MSFT is now >30x higher even after a very tumultuos decade (equivalent to TSLA at $7,500/share):

Look at where that little red cross is. Imagine how much you would regret selling at that cross if TSLA reaches even a portion of it's potential! (apologies to Captain_Zap :) ) Of course there is no guarantee, but hopefully this will help those like me who really believe in the company and are trying to avoid selling to early after these big gains.

@NoMoDinos: no mo' acrophobia!

Jamon | 25. Februar 2014

Crap! I'm going to re-post...

Jamon | 25. Februar 2014

Last May when the stock price was $55 and the short squeeze was imminent, I was trying to set a price in my head that I would be willing to sell. The good @Captain_Zap mentioned regrets about selling Microsoft in 1989 when they were in a similar (stock price) position as Tesla is in today. I did some soul searching and decided I will hold TSLA for the long long term. Today I looked up MSFT historical charts to see how it compares with TSLA. For those who fear that TSLA is too high right now (of course that very well could be true), hopefully these charts will give you the intestinal fortitude to hold on for the long term!

Charts courtesy of Google Finance (hopefully they will paste here successfully).

Here is TSLA from IPO until today (up 13x in 3.5 years):

Looks fairly similar to MSFT after IPO (up 13x in 5 years):

13x is a ridiculously good return and it feels like there is no way it could keep going higher. But if TSLA behaves anything like MSFT in the future, this could really be just the very beginning (of course there can be many debates about whether and how TSLA of today would compare with MSFT of the 80's, but for this discussion let's just assume it's possible).

This chart shows the following 5 years after MSFT hit that 13x increase from IPO. The red cross shows where you would have sold if you bailed after the 13x increase. Holding 5 more years yielded an additional 5x return (equivalent to TSLA at $1,250 in 2019):

Now look 10 years after MSFT hit the 13x. The red cross looks almost no different from the IPO. Holding 10 more years yielded 25x additional return (equivalent to TSLA at $6,250 in 2024)!

Finally, look at MSFT lifetime chart. After the 13x increase, MSFT is now >30x higher even after a very tumultuos decade (equivalent to TSLA at $7,500/share):

Look at where that little red cross is. Imagine how much you would regret selling at that cross if TSLA reaches even a portion of it's potential! (apologies to Captain_Zap :) ) Of course there is no guarantee, but hopefully this will help those like me who really believe in the company and are trying to avoid selling to early after these big gains.

@NoMoDinos: no mo' acrophobia!

nomoDinos @ca.us | 25. Februar 2014

@Jamon - nice perspective! Looking over these charts is like valium for my Tescrophobia.

GoTeslaChicago | 26. Februar 2014

On February 26, 2014, Tesla Motors, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing an underwritten registered public offering of $1.6 billion aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes, comprised of $800.0 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2019 and $800.0 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2021. In addition, the Company intends to grant the underwriters 30-day options to purchase up to an additional $120.0 million in aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2019 and up to an additional $120.0 million in aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2021.

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140226/tsla8-k.html

Now we know as least in part how the Giga factory will be financed!

EQC | 26. Februar 2014

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