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Who bought in January? U.S. numbers must be way down, right?

Who bought in January? U.S. numbers must be way down, right?

Because of the reduction in tax credit, I would think almost anyone who was thinking of buying a Tesla would have bought in December, right? Sales of almost all EVs go way down in January because people don't want to wait an extra year for the tax credit. Combine this with the tax credit reduction and sales should plummet in January.

For example, from December 2017 to January 2018 sales were:

Model S; 4975 down to 800
Model X; 3300 down to 700

I'm guessing Jan 2019 will be:
Model S; 350
Model X; 400
Model 3; 4000

I guess non-US sales will be way up to try and help with the lull. Did you purchase in January? Explain why. Thanks!

TranzNDance | 29. Januar 2019

The pattern has been that Tesla would backload domestic deliveries to the end of quarter and prioritize global shipments that take longer to ship. If you look at the first month of each quarter, you'll see the pattern.

If people have wages that get withheld, they can adjust W4 to get the credit before they file taxes the following year.

TranzNDance | 29. Januar 2019

The pattern has been that Tesla would backload domestic deliveries to the end of quarter and prioritize global shipments that take longer to ship. If you look at the first month of each quarter, you'll see the pattern.

If people have wages that get withheld, they can adjust W4 to get the credit before they file taxes the following year.

jonhgaarg | 30. Januar 2019

Hi guys! Does anyone have information on Tesla's favorable lease terms?

TeslaTap.com | 30. Januar 2019

@jake14mw - Tesla dropped the price of all cars by $2K to partly cover the gap between the tax credit change. Also many people don't qualify for the rebate anyways or can only take a part of the credit - so the Tesla price reduction make make it a better deal for these people.

As Tranz points out, many cars in the start of a quarter will be shipped to Europe, so total sales are unlikely to drop.

carlk | 30. Januar 2019

Like TranzNDance said.

BTW every Jan., April, July, and Oct. you see Seeking Alpha type FUDsters come out to say Tesla monthly US sale is way down it must be in trouble. Other months March, June, Sep, Dec. they will say Tesla sales in Norway/EU is way down because people are going for other brands. Google them and you'll see exactly that.

kcheng | 30. Januar 2019

"TeslaTap.com | January 30, 2019
@jake14mw - Tesla dropped the price of all cars by $2K to partly cover the gap between the tax credit change. Also many people don't qualify for the rebate anyways or can only take a part of the credit"

Is this true? Many people buying a Tesla don't qualify for the full tax credit? The cheapest Tesla is $44k, not including all the fees, etc. Many people can afford that and don't have enough taxable income to qualify for the full credit? Seriously? Many?

greg | 30. Januar 2019

@kcheng
"Many people can afford that $44K and don't have enough taxable income to qualify for the full credit? Seriously? Many?"

Well it seems so, a recent article on insideevs I read made that very point, the amount of EV tax credits the IRS is handing out is not as high as you'd think, and I recall the average federal Tax Credit claimed is about $5500 not the full $7500 you might think. Yes there a lot of $100K plus incomes who do claim [78% of individuals who claimed were over $100K income], but they are not everyone who claims the credit..

And secondly for 2018 in part due to recent changes in the tax codes (Child tax credit/EITC) that have impacted how much of a tax credit "surplus" any EV buying tax payer can claim of that $7,500. Which is a one time thing that can't split or rolled over.

The other thing is that a lot of people access the tax credit indirectly by leasing a vehicle, and for which the Federal Tax credit is used by the leasing firm to lower the monthly leasing costs, but the individual tax payer never needs to file to claim that it all done as part of the lease.

SHBrown | 30. Januar 2019

We ordered our first Model 3 online the day after orders first opened up way back when, and took delivery of our Red Dual Motor LR on Sept 1, 2018, getting the full 7500 tax credit. But at our income level that pretty much maxed out any credits we could possibly get for the year.

So we waited till just after the New Year to order our second Model 3, a Midnight Silver Rear Motor Midrange, so that we could at least get the 3750 credit on our 2019 income. The $2000 price decrease after Jan. 1 meant that in effect we got a $5750 total price break, which meant that we got the Rear Motor MIdrange for around $40,000, only about $5000 more than the not yet available $35,000 base model, plus we got the premium interior and 264 mile range instead of the base interior and 210 mile range. We placed the order for this one on January 4 and took delivery on January 15, not bad at all I'd say.

We traded our two 2012 Plug-in Prius' for the new Model 3's which meant that the cost of each Model 3 was reduced by another $10,000. Worked well for us, and I expect a number of other folks who were or are in a similar situation, with incomes that are borderline for taking advantage of the full tax credits, but with careful planning could still work it out.

EVRider | 31. Januar 2019

@kcheng: Retired people can have plenty of cash but little taxable income.

JustSaying | 31. Januar 2019

"@kcheng: Retired people can have plenty of cash but little taxable income."
They could pull some extra money from their IRA's.

TeslaTap.com | 31. Januar 2019

True that those who have an IRA and fit all the requirements and limitations of the IRA could pull some out to get taxable income that can be used against the tax credit. Hard to get the amounts right to minimize taxes paid.

The smart retires moved their IRA money into Roth IRA. Pulling money from Roth IRA is non-taxable, so it wouldn't help with the tax credit.

Yodrak. | 31. Januar 2019

"Retired people can have plenty of cash but little taxable income."
"They could pull some extra money from their IRA's."

Wow, what a cloistered group Tesla owners are.
- In 2015 (the most recent data available), 34 percent of households age 65
or over received 90 percent or more of their income from Social Security.
- An October 2017 Government Accountability Office (GAO) analysis found that
the median retirement savings for Americans between age 55 and 64 was $107,000.
- Transamerica reports the estimated median savings for sixtysomethings is $172,000.

A relative few retired people may have plenty of cash and big IRAs but not many have the amount of money required to buy an EV and still put food on the table and a roof over their heads.

Uncle Paul | 03. Februar 2019

Right after the first of the year, Tesla began shipping thousands of vehicles to their newly opening markets in Asia and Europe.

Will also begin manufacturing Right hand drive models for countries that drive on that side of the road.

The market for Tesla is ever expanding, Most of the world still does not have sales centers in their countries.

To reach this world wide demand, Tesla will need to build several more Giga Factories in those areas, to reduce transportation costs and take advantage of less expensive local labor.

Uncle Paul | 03. Februar 2019

Elon says they need to continously drive prices of EV's down to enable more and more people to purchase them. They recently reduced prices on most of their existing vehicles.

Next they are working towards the elusive $35,000 Model 3. Many people in the lower income ranges will get little benefit from the Tax credits, but will greatly benefit from lower priced options. They are not so worried about leather seating, oversized wheels and tires, maximum top speeds etc. They just want an economical and stylish way to get to and from work, and to their social engagements. They usually buy used cars, and with the cost of new Teslas coming down, the used ones will also become more affordable.

The next pent up demand will come from the highly anticipated Model Y compact SUV. That is the hottest space in the marketplace, and should sell in much larger volumes than even the red hot Model 3.

Higher seating, more storage space and the hatch back design is going to fly off the selves (with or without Falcon Wing Doors).

Ultimate volume enhancer is when Tesla begins production of their newer less expensive cells. Will further reduce costs, enable much faster Supercharging, extend range and generally make everything better.

About this time Full Self Driving should be further along, and the computer should take much of the druggery out of bumper to bumper traffic as well as long fatiguing distances.

kcheng | 03. Februar 2019

@greg, thanks. I'll have to keep an eye out for that article in insideevs. Tax season is here, so I'm sure that's a stat that might come back.

I do find it amazing that someone would buy a Tesla without the ability to take the full credit, or not getting the advice from a tax professional on how to do it. If true, then perhaps the tax credit drop won't have as big of an effect upon Tesla sales as feared. I mean, $2000 off, and a $3750 credit is still a good chunk of change, $5750.

Shock | 04. Februar 2019

"Is this true? Many people buying a Tesla don't qualify for the full tax credit? The cheapest Tesla is $44k, not including all the fees, etc. Many people can afford that and don't have enough taxable income to qualify for the full credit? Seriously? Many?"

I thought this unbelievable at first, but indeed it seems to be so. In my opinion a lot of people are badly overextended on their car purchases. Somebody posted a link showing average income of Model S and X buyers. It's around $145k or so which is certainly not a fantastic income if you're dropping $90k on a car and have a family (X buyers). And therefore many people make much less. I'm sure a good number of purchasers are spending 1X their annual income on these cars.

"@kcheng: Retired people can have plenty of cash but little taxable income."

This is true, though the demographic of tesla purchasers is heavily in the non-retired group.

"Next they are working towards the elusive $35,000 Model 3"

Next? They were supposed to have it out end of 2017. Then he said when they hit 5k week they'd start making it, then he said recently they need a China factory.

You know there will never be a $35k model 3, right?

jerrykham | 04. Februar 2019

So, as an anecdote I can say that I have seen several Model 3 and Model S vehicles with the new cardboard / paper license plates that became the law in January (in CA) on the road here in. So there have been SOME sales. Couldn't tell you how many. (These plates are now required before you can drive off the lot / take delivery and are only until your permanent metal plates arrive).

SO | 04. Februar 2019

@shock - “You know there will never be a $35k model 3, right?”

Still pushing that line I see.

carlk | 04. Februar 2019

@shock Why you're still here and why do you care?

Uncle Paul | 04. Februar 2019

Most of the sarcasm here comes from the shorts...

fmestas | 05. Februar 2019

Just placed an order for a Model 3 mid range on Friday. I opted not to purchase in December for various reasons, number 1 being that I was still looking at a few different cars (ICE) and hadn't even had a chance to test drive a Model 3 (No Tesla locations in NM).

Also, while the full tax credit was an important consideration, I was actually more concerned with Tesla's "year end manufacturing push" turning into a quality disaster. As a manufacturing engineer with ~25 years of experience I've seen "year end, manufacture as much product as possible to bring in revenue pushes" turn into complete quality disasters so many times, I've lost count. The fact that this is not a mature production line made it even scarier. So, I was happy to wait until Jan/Feb (and to actually test drive) just for more piece of mind. The fact that they reduced the price by $2K is icing.

The one thing I'm disappointed in is the fact that, aside from an automated email and the $2500 charge to my cc, I still haven't heard from a live person. Is this normal? ($50K is a big purchase - you'd expect much better service)

SO | 05. Februar 2019

@fmestas - it’ll be fine.

TeslaTap.com | 06. Februar 2019

@fmestas - Yep - no live person until the delivery date is issued. Even then it may be by email. For me, not having to deal with a dealer, the sales agent, sales manager, finance manager, accessories manager, undercoating sales and endless others is a good thing.

fmestas | 07. Februar 2019

@TeslaTap: Thanks. I agree about not having to deal with dealer BS and in fact prefer email or text to phone calls. Just looking for reassurance that my order isn't lost in the digital ether... A simple introductory email from a real person with a "Hey, I'm working on it and will keep you informed" would be nice.

TeslaTap.com | 07. Februar 2019

@fmestas - Perhaps someday. For now, like the rest of us before we got our cars, the waiting is hard :)

The one thing you can do is go into your Tesla account page. Some very limited information should appear (if Tesla is still doing it). This can include when the VIN for your car gets issued and a some steps as it gets into production and ready for delivery. In the past it was actually a few days behind reality.

ccash | 08. Februar 2019

I purchased in January unexpectedly because my 328i needed a big repair and the writing was on the wall. I love that car but it has high miles and is well past any warranties. I'm doing the repairs now and I'll sell it soon. (The trade offered by Tesla was almost an insult. It's weird they didn't really ask for anything other than the VIN... no questions about condition.)

Anyway, made a decision rather quickly and had so many more reasons to go EV and Tesla than reasons against. Might sound silly, but not having to EVER get an oil change was huge! When you're under a maintenance contract you have to go to the dealer, and with the mileage I drive that was every few months and I hated that with a passion.

Of course no more gas stations, hopefully some HOV stickers, rebates and credits, and cool tech (though I am really hating the entertainment mess).

I went with a Tesla because they seem to be doing something so different and cool, and some long-time owners I trust rave about theirs. Another big factor for me was safety. Hopefully not not naively, I feel very safe in the Model 3. And handling-wise, I really feel it's like the electric version of a BMW 3-series.

fmestas - I felt the same way, and while some parts of the buying process were great -- namely not fending off the finance manager at a dealer -- in retrospect I wish I could've just sat down with a person and taken care of everything, because the lack of feedback and direction drove me nuts. For example, my MVPA was emailed to me on a Friday (great, because I needed it for the bank loan), and I saw there was a place for my signature. Surely Tesla didn't want me to print, sign, scan, and upload this doc.? And upload how/where? All weekend I wondered if I was supposed to be doing something. My car was scheduled for delivery on Wednesday. Finally Monday night I received an email with instructions to sign.

Assigning a point-person would be a great idea, but I guess that would cost money. I really had my doubts everything would fall into place. It was a little painful, but it worked out and I'm really happy with the car.

jonhgaarg | 14. März 2019

Hi! I leased Infinity few months ago here http://www.mnautoleasing.com/car-lease-deals/infiniti , and also saw Tesla deals , now it is not in the list of available cars, but I think it is worth checking with the Manager. Perhaps it will tell you when the model you need will be available for purchase.