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New Japanese Tesla Teardown: at least 6 years ahead

New Japanese Tesla Teardown: at least 6 years ahead

We've all seen Munro's tear down. Here's another with disturbing news for legacy makers:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-teardown-finds-electr...

"worry that computers like Tesla's will render obsolete the parts supply chains they have cultivated over decades"

WW_spb | 17. Februar 2020

But but what about Ford MomE and Porsche Toolate?

SamO | 17. Februar 2020

Tesla (Check’s notes) fanbois?

teslamazing | 17. Februar 2020

Old news. Everyone out there knows Tesla is far ahead of the game and there is no denying that.

andy.connor.e | 17. Februar 2020

@Rikki

Those names are ingenious. I will remember this for generations to come.

andy.connor.e | 17. Februar 2020

I also like Taycant

Sarah R | 17. Februar 2020

What leapt off the page at me was the following:

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Such systems will drastically cut the number of electronic control units, or ECUs, in cars. For suppliers that depend on these components, and their employees, this is a matter of life and death.

So big automakers apparently feel obliged to continue using complicated webs of dozens of ECUs, while we only found a few in the Model 3. Put another way, the supply chains that have helped today's auto giants grow are now beginning to hamper their ability to innovate.

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To me, this is confirmation of my thesis that the Model 3 is designed and built with the aerospace design principles of reducing size, weight, power and cost (SWaP-C).

The reason why Tesla is six years ahead of everyone else and pulling away is because they're all asking their automotive engineers how to build electric "compliance cars". Musk asked his SpaceX rocket jockeys to build a road-bound Earth Rover.

andy.connor.e | 17. Februar 2020

The other thing Tesla is doing that no one else is doing, is improving manufacturing efficiency by orders of magnitude. Its likely that any automaker can build a Tesla with their released patents, but how many of them can sell them for $40k and make a profit? Tesla is running their company off their EVs, whereas most companies as @Sarah pointed out, make compliance EVs at very low production capacity and most of the time sell them at a loss.

Geico | 17. Februar 2020

Tesla's technology is no doubt amazing, and the fact that they have built their own GPU's specifically designed in order to hopefully one day be able to have a car that is semi autonomous is great!

The only downside is the timeline keeps getting pushed further and further back. A few years ago a video came out that showed a FSD vehicle navigating the streets and sold people that the technology was on the cusp of being released. Very misleading.

While I respect Tesla's audacious commitment to develop the Neural Net and use Tesla vehicles as data banks, taking a more pragmatic approach - look at what the Neural Net has brought us thus far:

1) Still failing windshield wipers
2) Poor decisions on lane changes, roundabouts, and stop light detection hit and miss.

While I respect the fact that it appears Tesla is adding more features, those features have yet to really impress me or give me hope the Neural Net is doing it's job. It seems to me that they have to manually add these features, and the neural net currently is very limited.

I take a more pragmatic stance based on Tesla's past history, they have been peddling FSD for many many years now. I don't think they are anywhere close to FSD or Full autonomy and what features do come out still require manual input 50% of the time and can't really be relied on.

If LIDAR + Cameras isn't the technology to get us to FSD quicker, then how long will it take for a purely camera based system to work?

Magic 8 Ball | 17. Februar 2020

@mabuck how far down are you with your short positions? Taking every opportunity to voice complaints and negativity is not in Tesla's or anyone else's, best interest.

teslamazing | 17. Februar 2020

There’s 24 hours in a day. I’m sure they are working very hard and have lots of classified info that is not accessible to the public. I want to see where they stand by the end of this year.

Geico | 17. Februar 2020

Magic8Ball

Am I lying in any way in that post? Would you please actually add to the discussion instead of push it off topic?

Magic 8 Ball | 17. Februar 2020

"off topic" LOL. I am pushing back against your derailment with your noisy BS.

Topic is: Tesla is AMAZING.

TeslaTap.com | 17. Februar 2020

Most automakers also contract out all software other than engine management. So they have few if any resources to develop in-house infotainment, charging, battery management, motor controls, and FSD. Most of it is farmed out.

This means a many year's timelines to get anything done - and in the end, they don't own the code! Specifications are created, contracts made, vendors produce, cycles of validation and changes before it can be released. Even the tiniest of changes requires so many people to get involved and the time can be measured in years not days.

Someday when they actually get around to OTA updates, don't expect many changes as it's too costly and time-consuming. It's really hard to pivot your entire engineering processes, and I doubt many legacy companies can do it. Tesla and other startups have a huge advantage by building the engineering teams in a way that is needed for success today.

Geico | 17. Februar 2020

Did you read your posts? How about explain why I am wrong in my pragmatism instead of blindly saying they are amazing. We can both agree to that - yes, they have excellent technology and a great car because of it. But in what world does any of that matter if it doesn't yield results? Like a performance review, but failing the performance part.

WW_spb | 17. Februar 2020

Mabuck, you are doing exactly what Fish does. Mixing false and real information slightly so it appears legit. It's ok. We see what you are doing.

Bighorn | 17. Februar 2020

Wipers are off topic. Read the OP again. You need more troll lessons so as not be so transparent. Emulating the most hated poster ain't gonna get you there.

mabuck | February 17, 2020
@Magic8Ball

That is fair, but the purpose is to make Tesla (YOU) a better company(PERSON). I don't want them (YOU) to go down this path, and others wouldn't either. I want them(YOU) to be successful.

There, FIFY.

rdavis | 17. Februar 2020

mabuck | February 17, 2020

If LIDAR + Cameras isn't the technology to get us to FSD quicker, then how long will it take for a purely camera based system to work?
____________________________

Can't tell you how far off official FSD is, but I can say that the route Tesla is taking is most likely the best one. I have researched it a lot and although I am no expert I can understand why and how they are doing it. Granted, this is just an OPINION, so take it with a grain of salt.

Now, my thought process on fully FSD vehicles (being able to not pay any attention at all while in motion) is very far in the future due to regulations and other non-functional issues. I do believe that the capability for full FSD is right around the corner; however, the technology will require the user to pay attention just like it does on interstate with EAP autodrive. So let me define my belief-opinion time line... 1-5 years for FSD to be available fully featured with user attention required. 15-25 years before you see sleep at your wheel acceptance/availability.

Geico | 17. Februar 2020

@Bighorn

How is that off topic? Tesla uses their customized AI and Neural net in order to function the automatic wiper blades. The article states that traditional automakers are 5 years behind in having similar technology as Tesla.

What difference does it make if Tesla is 5 years ahead and have a space ship computer in their car, if traditional automakers rain sensor works better than the Neural Net auto wiper function? If the blind spot warning works better than the camera system and neural network?

Geico | 17. Februar 2020

@rdavis

Thank you for your opinion. We will disagree on the timeline, but I am no expert either.

Magic 8 Ball | 17. Februar 2020

"But in what world does any of that matter if it doesn't yield results? Like a performance review, but failing the performance part."

Are you unable to see the results before you?

Some important metrics for you to consider:

Stock price
Sales
Capacity
Growth

rdavis | 17. Februar 2020

TeslaTap.com | February 17, 2020
Most automakers also contract out all software other than engine management...

It's really hard to pivot your entire engineering processes, and I doubt many legacy companies can do it. Tesla and other startups have a huge advantage by building the engineering teams in a way that is needed for success today.
____________________________

This is so nail on head... !!!

One thought, you'd think some of the "Bigs" would startup a new sub-company (or whatever) and run it much like Tesla to do their EV cars... It might be more expensive in the short term, but if they can't see the witting on the wall... I don't think they will survive in the Long run.

Bighorn | 17. Februar 2020

Read the article. It's exactly not about how far the chip is ahead of the competition. It's about supply chain economics. And neither has anything to do with the rain sensing camera.

Geico | 17. Februar 2020

@Bighorn

I know I read the article, it does mention their Neural Net and chips relative to the autopilot and car functions and how this chip they've designed is vital to the advancement of autonomous driving. So I am not off topic in my post which actually added to the discussion.

Again, these same chips are used for blind spot detection and the automatic windshield wiper function. Red light detection, roundabouts, etc. When you look at the results of this chip to date, it's mediocre at best.

Lets hope they can improve upon it, but at the pace they're going now we are far away in my opinion.

rdavis | 17. Februar 2020

Bighorn | February 17, 2020
Read the article. It's exactly not about how far the chip is ahead of the competition. It's about supply chain economics. And neither has anything to do with the rain sensing camera.
___________________________

I think this is really why the traditional investor analysis guys just don't understand TSLA stock. They keep looking at it as a traditional Automaker. Yes, they make cars, but not in the way a traditional auto maker does. You have to understand the process Tesla uses and see the future of how it runs the course. I think they are slowing coming into understanding, but it's a slow process for them to see... This article really highlights where tesla stands compared to the others and how far ahead of everyone they are... IF you believe in this road path it just makes sense to invest in TSLA.

jimglas | 17. Februar 2020

mabuck is a troll
just flag and move on

Magic 8 Ball | 17. Februar 2020

Dr Evil had mini me, Fish has mabuck.

teslamazing | 17. Februar 2020

Rmr data is key and no other company has the amount of data Tesla has.

Peace.

TeslaTap.com | 17. Februar 2020

@rdavis - One of the few smart decisions I've seen is acquiring the right tech company. For example, Cruise automation was bought by GM. I doubt GM could ever get close to FSD without it.

I'm not sure there are enough good companies to go around, but it's one way to move forward a little quicker. Tesla has been so sharp at picking up tech companies that complement their work too. You get a group of talented engineers, completed technology, and you deprive others of that same tech. It's interesting that Tesla is going for maximum vertical integration - what legacy car companies used to do 50 years ago.

Now the legacy carmakers are mostly parts assemblers with some outdated engine technology. They do have good marketing and advertising teams, which are critical to selling the outdated stuff they produce.

Geico | 17. Februar 2020

I understand Tesla rdavis, I've owned one and seen the progression of updates to autopilot over the last year. They release very minute upgrades that seem to do very little to further the advancement of FSD.

For example, my red light detection does not work. I've tried it at several red lights. This update was released months ago. Null.

The windshield wipers still have to be adjusted manually in light rain. They've released several improvements to this over the last year and a half. Null

All I want is for the car to noticeably get better over time, and it's not happening as I had hoped. Sure, maybe in a few years the windshield wipers will be perfect. If that has any indication for FSD, I would be worried if I purchased it and part of why I wasn't suckered into buying it to begin with.

Geico | 17. Februar 2020

Good point TeslaTap! It is all about the people and talent you have.

WW_spb | 17. Februar 2020

MaBuck-"I've owned one and seen the progression of updates to autopilot over the last year."

So you don't own one anymore?

Magic 8 Ball | 17. Februar 2020

Maybe some aftermarket strap on stuff will improve your experience? Careful not to void the warranty tho'.

You do realize a Japanese "teardown" proclaiming Tesla is years ahead is remarkable and amazing, don't you?

PteRoy | 17. Februar 2020

That was a funny article. Which ever one of you wrote that, thanks, made me laugh.

andy.connor.e | 17. Februar 2020

everyone is arguing with mabuck and tangenting the topic one post at a time just like FISHEV tactics. Get with the program people.

Magic 8 Ball | 17. Februar 2020

People are with the program. Many methods have been tried, the program is confront and destroy.

WW_spb | 17. Februar 2020
andy.connor.e | 17. Februar 2020

You cant destroy anything when they can just continue to post as they both have been doing. Even when faced with being 100% wrong, both just continue to post a comment. Have to flag and ignore.

rdavis | 17. Februar 2020

@Mabuck....

Not sure if your timeline of improvement is realistic. In my two years of ownership of the model 3 with EAP it has had tremendous improvements using Autopilot on the interstate. When it first release, I would refrain from using it as it was just not functional for me. Over the two years of ownership it has now become a predominate way I drive every day short commute or long trip on the interstate.

What is good about the NN is that it learns over time and that curve is exponential as more and more data becomes available. I can't tell you when Rain wipers will be better (to be honest, mine work as good as any car I've owned) or when FSD will be out and running flawlessly... but I can say I don't need to go buy the next years model car to have my model 3 get better at doing that stuff... good luck with that on traditional cars. I used to never buy new model year that were new designs because of all the "bugs" and issues you'd have to suffer through until you could afford a newer model year car where they had perfected or bettered that feature.

Magic 8 Ball | 17. Februar 2020

@andy We have been through this second tier derailment many times. Everytime you bring up how it should be dealt with you bring in another level of derailment. Start a thread on how to deal with it. Don't poison other threads into a back and forth we have had many times already it is just as bad as what you are going on about.

Geico | 17. Februar 2020

No need to respond to my post if you think I'm some sort of troll. Nuff said.

Sarah R | 17. Februar 2020

I personally am a skeptic on Level 5 autonomy. There are a few problems that seem to be unsolvable. One is the humble chain link fence as a gate. They're damned near invisible as it is. But level 5 has to deal with them adroitly. The pole in the car park that the ultrasonic sensors can't see. These are edge and corner cases that must be solved before you can build a car without driver controls.

But Tesla has the correct approach: Simplify the hardware, put the complexity in software. L5 might not be achievable. But right now Tesla has the best technology on the road. I'm driving it. Sometimes it drives me. (We argue all the time about who gets to drive). But I'm loving every minute of having the choice

andy.connor.e | 17. Februar 2020

its already poisoned dude. theres no saving it.

jallred | 17. Februar 2020

Again, these same chips are used for blind spot detection and the automatic windshield wiper function. -mabuck

Umm. You made that fact up.

andy.connor.e | 17. Februar 2020

But to add to the OP, Tesla is ahead on their hardware. Where is Ford's million mile rated motor?

jallred | 17. Februar 2020

@andy.connor.e

Ford interview video says it all. Claim was that batteries and motors were no big deal.
Big deal was getting sounds in cabin to make you think you had an old Mustang engine and using HTML5 to get the most used button on top.

Just watch that interview and the autonomy day video and compare what the leaders say.

Sarah R | 17. Februar 2020

@jallred he might have made that up, but it's probably correct. The FSD computer does both.

Personally, blind spot detection works great for me. It's a neat of understanding the information you're being presented with. Rain detection is flawless. It works at least as well as in the 2001 Cadillac SLS I owned 3 cars ago. And they do it all in software.

andy.connor.e | 17. Februar 2020

Of course. Fill the interior with sounds and plastic so that way in 10 years you have to replace your motor. Thats what Ford wants. Thats what dealers want. Planned obsolescence.

jallred | 17. Februar 2020

@sarah, my car doesn't have the chip in it and it does those things using NN.

My point is that mabuck was judging the custom hardware based on the rain detection by claiming that if it can't do rain detection it can't do FSD.

FISHEV | 17. Februar 2020

"you'd think some of the "Bigs" would startup a new sub-company (or whatever) and run it much like Tesla to do their EV cars."

That's what Ford did on the Mach-E.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhTomO4thbY&feature=emb_logo

Likely same for Mercedes and Audi on their EV's.

jallred | 17. Februar 2020

Team Edison was a marketing group. The main output of the group was that the car had to be "aspirational".
No indication in the video that it was a separate company or that it did any engineering at all.

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