Meanwhile at HQ

Meanwhile at HQ

There was an AT&T or IBM advertisement several years ago showing a bunch of twenty somethings crowded around a pc just as they are about to launch their website. The guy at the keyboard looks around at his partners and says, "Are we ready?" A woman says, "Do it!" and he hits enter. After a few seconds the order counter shows "1" and they go crazy. Then it ticks up to "10" and they go crazier. And then it jumps to 1,000 and keeps on going.

They look around at each other as if to say, "How the hell are we going to do this?"

It hardly takes any time at all for a good idea to degenerate into just plain hard work.

Good luck Tesla!!!

bish | 03. April 2016

How many reservations was Tesla expecting? And how many would have the considered to have been a ludicrous amount?

Tropopause | 03. April 2016

This is the kind of problem all companies wish for.

carlk | 03. April 2016

The most optimistic prediction I've heard was 100,000 in the first week. And that was my prediction. ;)

Bighorn | 03. April 2016

Elon said 1/4 to 1/2 as many as they got not expecting this kind of response until the second reveal which is likely well over a year off.

Bighorn | 03. April 2016

Another tweet indicated expectations of lines only 20-30 deep.

dd.micsol | 03. April 2016

@carlk-you should see me on the yahoo finance board-I predicted this dead on at 179k in 36hrs. Although, I undershot the total for the first weekend. So, even though I predicted high-I don't think I'll win on Monday am guessing.

Haggy | 03. April 2016

Given that they had 16 people taking reservations in Fremont, I'm sure they expected far more than 20-30. Considering that they processed each person in a couple of minutes at most, the line would have been gone by 10:05. Based on the way the line was laid out, I'd say they expected maybe 200 waiting to be processed. They could have used quite a few more zigzag sections before it flowed out into the parking lot.

Chunky Jr. | 03. April 2016

They probably expected 20-30 per store on average, while expecting some places having much higher demand, such as CA, particularly Silicon Valley.

Red Sage ca us | 05. April 2016

J.T.: +1! I remember that commercial. ;-)

TO The League of Lowered Expectations: I have said for quite some time that underestimating potential, lowering expectations, calling for cautious skepticism... Is all really good advice that should be thoroughly ignored when it comes to Tesla Motors. Yes. I am an Over-the-Top, Out-of-Control, Tesla Motors Certified Apologist Fanboy... But I long ago reserved the right to say, "I told you so!"

There is no [GOLDURNED] 'limited market' for electric cars. Stop using such tired catch phrases.

Tesla Motors doesn't build slow cars. Stop wishing for a fully electric Camry analog.

Tesla Motors doesn't offer weirdmobiles. Stop demanding an econobox.

Each and every one of your predictions has been wrong. Just like I told you. For the past two years at least. Admit it. I won. Better yet? You lost. And Elon Musk is a WINNER.

By the way...?


TaoJones | 05. April 2016

I predicted 100,009 reservations in the first 24-36 hours both here and at TMC, with as many as 50,000 from California. My most recent prognostication was an over/under of 700,000 after the 2nd reveal. Might want to take the over.

Of course, I failed to predict that Tesla would miss Q1 deliveries by 100/week or that they'd lose their VP of Finance and CIO, not to mention their Comm guy, in the space of a month. Stock down 3% after hours - hopefully there's no double hit if/after some opportunistic analyst decides to issue a downgrade.

Bleh! On the hand, it's only an 8% miss, ostensibly due to supply chain growing pains. Hopefully the upcoming S announcement will dull the pain. Not to mention more M3 reservations along with the indirect benefit of more people realizing that GM has committed to no more than 30,000 nuts and Bolts per year. Seems they'll be a wee bit short there in assuming the media's mantle of "Tesla killer".

Hi_Tech | 05. April 2016

@Red Sage - I get your sentiment, but as a MS owner and a Model 3 reservation holder, I definitely didn't lose! ;-)

Hi_Tech | 05. April 2016

@TaoJones - At least they were able to keep the full year expectations the same with the 80-90k.
I think many of those issues (MX production) are behind them and they will be going into over-drive in Q2. I don't think it'll impact their full year estimates either.

WattsThatGrin | 05. April 2016

TaoJones: 'GM has committed to no more than 30,000 nuts and Bolts per year.'
You gotta be nuts to buy a Bolt, is that what you try to say? Some here on the forum will agree...

biggestfan | 05. April 2016

I am happy to say that my prediction of 20,000 reservations in the first couple of days was TOTALLY wrong.

Also a little disappointed because I will have to wait for my Model 3 since I ordered the moment online ordering became available instead of going to the store. I SO should have taken the day off to get a better spot in line.....

Red Sage ca us | 06. April 2016

TaoJones: Dund worry about it. TSLA closed at over $265. Up nearly a full ten bucks. You're good.

HiteshBhatt: C'mon, MAN! If you were really in the League of Lowered Expectations, you wouldn't have got the Model ☰ Reservation!