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Model 3 Production Projections

Model 3 Production Projections

Tesla stated: "Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018." Later on the call, Musk revealed that suppliers are being told Model 3 targeted production run rates of 1000/wk in July, 2000/wk in August, and 4000/wk in September. And, he noted that Model 3 production should be up to 5000/wk towards the end of the year.

Based on this report, should we expect the following:

Month #/mth #/yr
July 4,000
Augu 8,000 12,000
Sep 16,000 38,000
Oct 16,000 54,000
Nov 16,000 70,000
Dec 20,000 90,000

Based on these projected numbers, when can you expect to get your car?

dsvick | 23. Februar 2017

Your math is off, 12,000 + 16,000 would be 28,000 not 38,000.

I, hopefully, expect to get mine in November or December.

JeffreyR | 23. Februar 2017

Elon is usually talking about peak production rate achieved/capacity not deliveries. @Red Sage has a great spiel that he may copy-paste here for you....

(man I miss the <pre> tag)

Red Sage ca us | 23. Februar 2017

Capacity is not the same as Production.

Production is not the same as Deliveries/Sales.

Each would be at least a little bit less than the one before it, even at peak achievable efficiency.

I would expect that only those items that will appear on the smallest percentage of cars would need to be supplied at only 1,000 units or less per week.

With an ultimate goal of 500,000 units per year... Anything that is intended to appear inside 100% of the cars should be capable of being supplied at up to 10,000 units per week.

I expect that at least 80% of cars Produced during 2017 will be Delivered to U.S. Customers. The others might be sent to Canada, or be held back for Delivery in Q1 2018 to allow for an extension of the Federal EV Tax Credit in the U.S. as the rampup increases.

CyberGaut | 23. Februar 2017

Wow I love those numbers.

based on 80,000 by then end of the year, and assuming deliveries only to North America (USA first but also Canada and Mexico) then I am hopeful for a nice Christmas gift from Elon this year!!!

OK will I can dream... and hope... OK I will still probably have to wait till early 2018. but I did reserve 2 minutes after the online opened so I am being optimistic.

Thank for the break down.

Frank99 | 23. Februar 2017

Yeah, but they seem mighty optimistic to me. I'm assuming something closer to:
July - 0
August (500 / wk) - 2000
September (1000 / wk) - 4000
October - (1000 / wk) - 4000
November - (2000 / wk) - 8000
December (3000 / wk, + 1 wk of 5000) = 13000
Total: 31000

Haggy has a more ambitious expectation (see https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/todays-earnings-call-model-3-news ) that I interpret as:
July: 4000
Aug: 8000
Sept: 16000
Oct: 16000
Nov: 16000
Dec: 16000
Total: 76000

Take your pick...

Frank99 | 23. Februar 2017

I guess that last one is pretty close to drbob's. Sorry about that, drbob.

Haggy | 24. Februar 2017

No, I'm saying that the worst case scenario with Tesla's numbers would be there, so we shouldn't expect more if Tesla hits its own projection.

If "some time in 2017" means the last day of 2017, then December's numbers would be no higher than November's if Tesla hits its projections.

If we go the other way, and "some time in 2017" turns out to be the start of October, that would be 88,000 for the year.

Those are the extremes IF Teslas's numbers prove to be correct and they make use of parts ordered. There's no assurance of that, but if it does turn out to be within the parameters that Tesla is accounting for with respect to parts orders, then it could be from 76,000 to 88,000. It would be fair to say that suppliers aren't going to be sending them more than what they ordered and agreed to pay for, so exceeding these numbers would be impossible unless Tesla exceeded its own production expectations and every single supplier were able to increase orders on short notice. That means it would be almost impossible to exceed these numbers.

It's far more realistic to assume that the low end is the high end and will probably be missed. I wouldn't expect Tesla to order a number of parts with the expectation that they might ramp up faster and end up with a work stoppage due to a parts shortage. It's far more likely that the parts orders accounted for an excess inventory that Tesla isn't likely to use up in the best case production scenario.

That makes 76,000 where I'd say it's unlikely to exceed even if everything goes right. It's possible that it will but more realistic that it will be lower.

Anemometer | 27. Februar 2017

The number I saw said 5000 /wk by year end but also that only 35,000 by end of 2017. Then sometime in 2018 to hit 10,000 / wk. I had a play with spreadsheets and came up with the following milestones... i.e. cumulative Model 3 production will have reach this level before the end of the month stated:

100,000 Mar 2018
200,000 Jun 2018
300,000 Aug 2018
400,000 Nov 2018
500,000 Jan 2019
600,000 Mar 2019
700,000 Jun 2019

Number were based on ramping up numbers from per week from 10 50 100 500 1000 5000 7500 10000.
With 4 weeks at each level until line 1 is up. Then a new line is needed. Get problems sorted then add speed. The big jump from 1000 to 5,000 is two lines running at full output. I ran a 3rd line doing 2,500 a week (7,500) from Jan till Mach, and a final 4th line from July 18.

All total guesswork :)

Question how many cars a day can a typical line produce? The S/X line is managing about 2,000 a week IIRC. Say you look at a car like the Ford Fusion(USA) Mondeo in Europe, how many worldwide tracks are running/car produced per track. Though probably best to stick to existing Tesla lines as production may be different for ICE.

I ask as I assume track one working successfully will be the blue print for then rolling out more. So you start with half complete bodies going through individual stages, then finally a full integration tests with maybe 2 cars a day coming off and constant line stops and checks. Once those are ironed out, you start turning up the speed setting, till you hit the line capacity. At some point will be a trigger to have line 2 running fully independently instead of supporting line 1 with the bits that are ready/needing rework.

I know its not really as simple as this, and 1 machine in part of the plant may create doors for 4 lines. But general there's a final assembly line where stuff does have to go on in sequence.

Means I can expect mine around Jul/Aug 18 if they start RHD by then, or early 2019 if they clear the LHD backlog from the first few weeks before starting RHD. Numbers were up to about 260,000 before I dropped on my reservation fee.

slasher0016 | 27. Februar 2017

1,000 a week by July tells me they won't have anywhere near 4,000 builds in July. I'd read it pretty much the opposite way:

July 31st - 1,500
August 31st - 5,000 (6,500)
September 30th - 9,000 (15,500)
October 31st - 16,000 (31,500)
November 30th - 16,500 (48,000)
December 31st - 16,000 - Holidays, etc (64,000)

That may get everyone in the US who ordered pre-reveal a car before the new year. ~115,000 pre-reveal orders with roughly half outside the US.

PhillyGal | 27. Februar 2017

So hard to speculate.
I'm pre-reveal and an S owner so I get some kind of priority... but on the East Coast so we still don't know.

Do all owners go before all non-owners or to all west coasts go before all east coasts? I assume the former. I'd be more than a little peeved for a non-owner in Cali getting their car before me unless it was one a pre-reveal ~115,000 reservation. Even then I'd still be a little bummed, to be honest.

I've got my fingers crossed for October/November.

PhillyGal | 27. Februar 2017

Actually, thinking logically, there's another argument for going all owners in the US, regardless of location, before all non-owners.

Tesla can't physically accommodate the delivery of hundreds of cars in a day at a single service center.
Unless there's some magic plan I'm unaware of, they'll have to spread the love a little.

topher | 27. Februar 2017

The model X is being delivered pretty much everywhere at this point, yes? At 25,000 total produced. Tesla is not going to wait until 100,000 for the Model 3.

Thank you kindly.

bmalloy0 | 27. Februar 2017

My guess is that they're going to end up doing something like "X cars to owners in West Coast. Y cars to owners further east along with Z cars to what owners are left on Wedt Coast plus some day 1 reserves. And continue until all US regions are receiving Z cars per unit of time, then scale US up as they being foreign deliveries. There may be a few cases where a post-reveal West Coast non owner receives their car before an East Coast pre-reveal mon owner, but I doubt it would be a significant amount.

Frank99 | 27. Februar 2017

They've talked about rolling out in regions - owners first within a region. But I'm sure they won't deliver everything to one region before moving on to the next.

I can see them training 10-20 teams of Model 3 delivery specialists, and have them spread out to 10-20 showrooms/service centers/delivery locations to deliver Model 3's and train local delivery specialists for a week, then move on to the next set of 10-20 showrooms/SC's. At each location, owners first. So, by the end of the year, I expect that all employees and owners will have been taken care of, and enough non-owners that my Model 3 will be in my driveway on Christmas day with a bow on it.

Invite to the reveal:
"As a current owner who has supported Tesla and our mission, your reservation will take priority and be placed ahead of non-owners."
Website:
"In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region."

Haggy | 27. Februar 2017

Assuming 7% of 400,000 orders are owners, that's about 28,000. Assuming 4000 in July, 8000 in August, and 16000 in September, that's 28,000. It seems like a reasonable enough period to ramp up and get distribution and sales channels in place across the US. That's not counting employees, or reality, since we have no real idea, but it passes the smell test.

I think it's quite reasonable to get cars to owners across the US first. But I'd guess that the number of owners who reserved in the US is about 60% of total owner reservations. So even with substantial wiggle room it's realistic. If they hit those numbers, they will get all owners in the US, and either start some overseas deliveries or domestic non-owner deliveries.

I would think the logistics would dictate starting the international deliveries in 2018. 2017 will have ramp up issues and as it gets closer to the end of the year, Tesla will want to maximize deliveries. Planning to make cars in the last two weeks of the year for Fremont pickup would book them as 2017 sales. Starting the build for international deliveries at the start of January could get them into the hands of customers in time for Q1 recognition of revenues. Tesla doesn't release monthly sales figures like other auto makers, and that gives them the ability to skew deliveries toward the end of the month and have higher numbers in transit in the early parts of quarters.

bj | 27. Februar 2017

@topher - "The model X is being delivered pretty much everywhere at this point, yes? At 25,000 total produced. Tesla is not going to wait until 100,000 for the Model 3."

Correct, Model X is now being delivered to every country in which Tesla currently has a store presence. It took 25k cars to reach that point, despite Model X being a particularly difficult car to build.

So for anyone to suggest that Tesla will not complete a full global distribution of Model 3 until mid 2018 or beyond is ridiculous. Tesla will almost certainly make RHD Model 3 within the 115k batch of pre-reveal reservations, because that is 4 times the build quantity of what it took to reach global deliveries of Model X.

Carl Thompson | 27. Februar 2017

Maybe it's just wishful thinking as a non-owner currently but to me it makes sense for Tesla to start with only the west coast first for the first group of deliveries. Because of the possibility of an unforeseen defect in the first batch of cars that requiring a factory recall / fix it makes sense logistically to make sure the first month or so of production goes to people that are reasonably close to their Fremont factory. I'm certain there are enough reservations in the high-tech Bay Area to handle all production for a time and of course this is where I live!

Carl

luwong.8888 | 27. Februar 2017

bj - completely agree. I think it is even simpler than that. The Model S paved the way for Model X and now Model 3 to be shipped to every where in the world that has a Tesla Boutique. Customer from UK orders a Model S. Once Model S is built, it is on a rail from California. Not that hard to add a Model X to that shipment and both vehicles end up in UK on the same delivery. That is why I know there will be deliveries to Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, Calgary etc by year end or first weeks of January. The Model S and X are going to these major Canadian cities every week. There will be room on those rail cars for Model 3s.

RHD - from what we gathered from the reveal a year ago, a central screen will make transition form LHD to RHD simpler and cost effective. My personal thoughts are I like a dash in front of the driver(taking a shot at the Toyota Echo/Yaris). A small projection built into the dash to project the important info infront of the driver(HUD), will make me mostly forget about having a dashboard. Frank99 posted that there were roughly 7000 reservations outside the US, pre reveal. A big chunk of those reserves came from the UK and other RHD countries. No way will Tesla delay those vehicles, especially when some will be Model S and X owners.

Red Sage ca us | 27. Februar 2017

PhillyGal: I think the 'Magic Plan' is for Tesla to win the Federal Court case against Michigan's regulators and elected officials. That should allow Tesla to expand their presence with facilities in every State in the nation at a rate similar to Starbucks or Krispy-Kreme locations. Unimpeded by the various State franchise dealership laws that should never have been applied against them to begin with, Tesla will be able to provide the consistent ownership experience they intended from the outset.

b8schris | 27. Februar 2017

I don't know

JeffreyR | 28. Februar 2017

I don't know about you guys, but I think @b8schris is hiding something.

---
Tesla will use the "Founders" deliveries to employees and investors to work out the kinks. This has been the stated plan all along. Elon repeated that during the Q4 Q&A session. He also mentioned that Tesla is working on well-produced videos to allow folks to learn about their cars both before they pick up and to "play in the car" too. This will help to improve the delivery experience (no sense producing a car if you cannot also deliver it).

Don't forget the Delivery Parties too:
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/delivery-party-ideas

---
Also during the Q4 Q&A session Elon spoke about parts being scaled up (mentioned above):

1000/wk by July
2000/wk by August
4000/wk by September

http://www.teslarati.com/goldman-sachs-downgrades-tesla-tsla-sell/ (see my comments there for other links too)
http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-deliveries-employees-first/
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4048698-tesla-tsla-q4-2016-results-earni... (sorry it seems the whole internet references this transcript even NASDAQ)