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The Tesla Advantage Part Deux

The Tesla Advantage Part Deux

Ha - being the fanboy (girl) I am - I love this guy.

Jack says TSLA can go to $950 in 5 years, and lists reasons why.

Main points: Supercharger Network, Batteries, Solar/Storage, and autonomy.

This is the 30 minute condensed version - if you like you can then watch his also 2 hour rant on why Tesla is going to smoke the competition. :)

https://youtu.be/1-hQcpuBbWE

mntlvr23 | 10. Oktober 2017

Saving for the weekend

Coastal Cruiser. | 10. Oktober 2017

This guy is really getting some play lately. He's always with the very insightful rants. I'm fanboy.

btw - Jack is an autonomous convert. Just lately. He surrendered to the notion that there are so many forces that want it to happen, it is inevitable (his characterization).

ReD eXiLe ms us | 11. Oktober 2017

I like his perspective. He should invite Pungoteague Dave and Gadfly to his show, and have Roamer join them via Skype. Like Tony Seba, I think his timeline is a little on the longish side, but yes, this will happen.

Shock | 11. Oktober 2017
KP in NPT | 11. Oktober 2017

Eh.

Why is anyone surprised by the cash burn? They are ramping the model 3, building the gigafactory, doubling then tripling the supercharger network.

I do agree that has to end and consistent profits need to happen, and would expect that to be when the Model 3 is much further along than it is now.

andy.connor.e | 11. Oktober 2017

A company could make $0 profit, but is not necessarily accumulating debt. Their income pays for their expenses, but they spend 100% of what would be considered profit, so their business model appears to be "non-profitable". Not necessarily that this is the case with Tesla, just another perspective.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 11. Oktober 2017

The ones who are 'incinerating cash' are the ICE companies that are still building new factories year after year with no plans to reach even 1% EV production within the next decade. All the 'assets' they currently hold will be worthless compared to their expenditures as that extra capacity turns out to not be needed at all. Once Tela has capacity to match BMW and Honda, a lot of ICE companies will fall to the wayside.

JustSaying | 11. Oktober 2017

http://www.foxbusiness.
com/features/2017/10/10/gm-wrestles-with-excess-capacity-wsj0.html

Tropopause | 11. Oktober 2017

Good time to buy more TSLA.

Xerogas | 11. Oktober 2017

@andy.connor.e good point. How many years has Amazon run without 'profit'. They pour everything back into R&D and expansion. They consider it a mistake if they have profit, because that means they weren't pushing enough money back into the company's future.

rgrant | 11. Oktober 2017

I watched one, and while it was slow and ponderous he was also relentless in driving home his points. He lost me when he went on a rant about “libtards”...

No thanks.

KP in NPT | 11. Oktober 2017

Ha..I missed that one....different video?

Rutrow | 11. Oktober 2017

^ Proud libtard.

Coastal Cruiser. | 11. Oktober 2017

In the year or so that I've been following Rickard he has shown himself to be a rather staunch conservative.

But he also carries a lot of wisdom in his noggin.

Is the electric car the meeting point between conservative and liberal point so view? I keep meaning to post a poll thread asking folks to ring in on their persuasion. It's a fair bet Tesla has converted some number of conservatives. Just don't know how many.

Rutrow | 11. Oktober 2017

Oops! Did I get political?!?

I retract my previous post. I endorse keeping politics off the forum. Sorry.

Coastal Cruiser. | 11. Oktober 2017

Rutrow, do you think the poll would be a bad idea?

ReD eXiLe ms us | 11. Oktober 2017

Meh. I expect white haired people at least ten years older than I am who outweigh me by 50 lbs or more to have such attitudes. Doesn't bug me one bit. It is fun to have conversations with 'staunch conservatives' of that type because they are usually very good thinkers, even if their perspective is a bit off-kilter. They actually are good at analyzing things but come to conclusions that may differ from my own due to our varied sense of order and purpose. Libtard, Redturd, Altfart, Anarchbum, NeoCon, whatever.

I feel sorry for staunch conservatives because their usual party of choice has been hijacked at least three times in the past twenty years, leaving them unrepresented and with nowhere to go. It used to be they had leaders that knew what they wanted to do and understood how to make it happen. But the guys in charge now have largely abandoned logic for rhetoric, and policies for slogans, and governance for quagmire. Always laying blame and never offering solutions.

"Some men just want to watch the world burn."

rgrant | 11. Oktober 2017

@KP it was from a few months back and it was right at the end which was disappointing as he’d had good (if slow) thoughts up until then.

fritter63 | 11. Oktober 2017

Pretty sure I saw him predict $1500 in another video.

That's a pretty big bump.

Coastal Cruiser. | 11. Oktober 2017

He predicted $1500 on his EVTV show a couple of months ago. I forgot the time projection.

KP in NPT | 11. Oktober 2017

$1500 was in 10 years I believe.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 11. Oktober 2017

I predict TSLA will reach 1/100th of BRK-A or cross $2,500 per share within ten years.

andy.connor.e | 12. Oktober 2017

A companies stock will only go as high as people are willing to pay for it. $2500 per share is basically saying if you're not a millionaire, go somewhere else.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 12. Oktober 2017

andy.connor.e: Yet, people who despise Tesla have been complaining about its stock becoming 'too diluted' for years. Meanwhile, there are gazillions more shares of F, FCA, GM, HMC, & TM out there. Since I started watching it, BRK-A went from ~$215,000 per share to ~$280,000 per share -- that represents a ~112.07% growth in the past five years, so there must be a whole bunch of millionaires -- or a $#!+load of mutual funds and conglomerate institutional investors out there. My guess is those groups are already [PEEVED] at the ANALysts and experts that have been warning them away from TSLA the past seven years. Someone, somewhere, would gladly choose to buy with no concern for the 'affordability' of shares for others. There can always be an offering of TSLA-B or TSLA-C at lower priepoints or mere mortals to diet upon at a later date.

KP in NPT | 12. Oktober 2017

Red and others - this is a great, balanced read when you have time.

Elon Musk Versus the Haters

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b15130kn8zz0x7/elon-musk-v...

andy.connor.e | 12. Oktober 2017

Im just going to retract the part about specific pricing.

A companies stock will only go as high as people are willing to pay for it.

Coastal Cruiser. | 12. Oktober 2017

Not a bad read. The short selling section is a perfect example of the point I was trying to make in my piece; there's so many funds shorting Tesla they themselves may be responsible for the stock doing exactly the opposite, due to a short squeeze.

Like everyone dog piling on the guy with the ball. Put enough pressure on the pile and the ball may just shoot out the side.

Mike83 | 12. Oktober 2017

Amusing how some shorts won't even drive a Tesla but own a Porsche. I am grateful for such uninformed shorts as it has given me an opportunity to buy shares on the cheap. A growth company is not a dividend company.

Coastal Cruiser. | 12. Oktober 2017

BTW, that second article that KP linked to repeats one of Elon's quotes that Ford and Tesla are the only two automotive companies that haven't gone bankrupt.

While technically true, Henry Ford went bankrupt twice, under other company names, before making his Ford Motor Company a success with the Model T.

rgrant | 12. Oktober 2017

I really thought short sellers would be incredibly savvy investors, but no. Just going with gut feelings like most everyone else. I hope they eat their shorts! ;)

ReD eXiLe ms us | 12. Oktober 2017

KP in NPT: Definitely a good article, though it was slightly, and probably innocently, 'off' on a couple/few points.

The problem with the ANALysts & $#0r+s is a matter of perspective. They are used to judging the relative value of businesses based upon Consumption and Waste. They are unable to imagine how a business with Conservation and Efficiency can fit into their financial models. They don't understand the problem is with their calculations and formulas, not with the business that is Tesla.

In my personal life, I often clash with those who consider themselves 'good judges of character'. I perplex them, and they say, "I just can't figure you out." That used to really [PEEVE] me, because I couldn't understand why it was so important to THEM to figure ME out.

Eventually, I realized that such individuals are often users, abusers, and manipulators. They were truly depraved individuals with no concept of ethical behavior. The reason why they had such a hard time figuring me out is that I have no ulterior motives, I'm honest, and I'm just a decent human being. It never occurs to them that ANYONE might be a decent human being. So they never ask themselves, "What would a decent human being do?" And they can never judge my character or predict my actions.

I think Elon Musk faces the same thing every day. Too many want to treat him as if he does things in the same deceptive manner they live their own lives. It never occurs to them that he is honest, straightforward, direct, or sincere. They tell themselves, "This has got to be a trick! A scam! He's got to be in it for himself, and he's getting away with it! Those poor fools have been taken in by his magic! But I will resist, I won't fall for it, he can't fool me! I'll show them all when I expose him! I shall be the lone voice of reason, a shining beacon of reality, I will be... The CONTRARIAN!". And they never realize that it is they, themselves, that are fooling... Themselves, and no one else.

Among them are Anton Wahlman, Edward Niedermeyer, Cory Johnson, and Jim Cramer. Poor guys. So very, very, confused when it comes to Tesla and Elon Musk.

cascadiadesign | 12. Oktober 2017

The ANALysts (as you nicely put it) are just short term thinkers that live from one earnings report to the next.

Musk is out of their league. His portfolio of companies are all intertwined and lead by a common, long term vision. But instead they focus on how many M3s got built (or not built) this month.

Every time a major automaker announces a timeline to build an EV, it's just another vote that Tesla is on the right track. The tail is wagging the dog.

Coastal Cruiser. | 12. Oktober 2017

Remember too that some of these short sellers are very wealthy individuals and successful funds that have made a lot of money in the market. Looking at the metrics TSLA is easily a short.

But as ReD and others alluded to, Tesla is not business as usual. It's defying the metrics. Tesla is a BUMBLE BEE. On paper, the bumble bee shouldn't be able to get off the ground. Yet it does.

;>

ReD eXiLe ms us | 12. Oktober 2017

Coastal_Cruiser wrote, "Tesla is a BUMBLE BEE."

Yup! And that really... uhm... bugs some people. ;-) If only they could learn to fly. Unfortunately, not everyone is invited to Neverland in their dreams.

"Autobots! Transform and... roll out!"

rgrant | 12. Oktober 2017

I remember back in the iPod/iPhone early days how the analysts predicted that Apple’s leads would be quickly reduced when Microsoft (with Zune) or Google (with Android) unleashed their mighty marketing and fulfillment (via 3rd parties in Googles case) engines. Zune died without making any dent and while Android outpaced iPhone in volume, Apple still takes home a mammoth share of the profits. I think analysts are still trying to figure out where their models went wrong.

None of them factored in software quality. They just looked at cost of materials and product cost....

El Mirio | 12. Oktober 2017

@rgrant VW is worried about software and admitted that this will be a significant challenge for them.

https://electrek.co/2017/08/04/vw-brand-ceo-sees-tesla-as-vws-main-compe...

ReD eXiLe ms us | 12. Oktober 2017

My Nephew keeps bouncing back & forth between Windows, Android, and iPhone, declaring each 'the best' with every switch.

Coastal Cruiser. | 12. Oktober 2017

rgrant: "I remember back in the iPod/iPhone early days how the analysts predicted that Apple’s leads would be quickly reduced when Microsoft (with Zune) or Google (with Android) unleashed their mighty marketing and fulfillment (via 3rd parties in Googles case) engine"

Right. And did you notice the one competitive advantage for Tesla that wasn't never once referred to in the article when referring to the competition? Let me do my SamO impersonation: "It's All About The Supercharger Network".

And I guess less often mentioned is what ElMirio referred to.

carlk | 12. Oktober 2017

The contrarian theory says more haters out there the better it is for Tesla and TSLA's future. Those are reserves now but one day they will sure turn into Tesla and TSLA lovers.

KP in NPT | 12. Oktober 2017

One of the things that Apple, and now Tesla has that competitors don't is the BRAND.

In Tesla's case, they don't even advertise, yet they make as many cars as they can, and have a waiting list for their next product that is years long. OEM's would kill for that excitement for one of their products.

Tesla's first mover advantage in the BEV space, the fact they are an aspiration brand, is not something other American carmakers can replicate. IMO. If Tesla can hold on to that, they will be just fine in the BEV part of their business.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 12. Oktober 2017

• No charging network.
• No battery factory.
• No singular devotion to making EVs ubiquitous.
• No Elon Musk.

Yet those $#0r+s who have been getting torched for YEARS now remain confident that competitors will miraculously arrive to defeat Tesla, completely eliminating their 'first mover advantage', and claiming 75% or more of the EV market 'in about three years'... somehow. Makes me want to engage in physical combat and tremendous bouts of cussing. I doubt they even realize it is the long range compelling EV market where Tesla resides. Not simply 'anything with a plug'. And the 'compelling' part starts with a focus on completely replacing ICE, not coexistence with it. Just another point that evades them... Somehow. Because they perceive a 'bubble' and are certain its gonna 'pop'... any... day... now... just... wait...

Rutrow | 12. Oktober 2017

As their name suggests, $#0R+$ are not in for the long haul. They're fine if TSLA goes to $1,500 as long as there are frequent dips along the way. That's why they love FUD.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 12. Oktober 2017

Rutrow: Yes, for day traders perhaps. But the guys in that article have been in it for the long haul. It seems they are looking for the final 'Big Score' that will finally prove them 'right' about Tesla, once and for all. The big event that will signal their utter destruction, just as they predicted, prognosticated, and prophesied for years on end. They are truly flummoxed that it hasn't happened yet. But they are sure it will, it must, it has to. In that, at least, they remain faithful. Poor suckers.

JeffreyR | 12. Oktober 2017

Have been distracted recently. Was hoping this was a take on the original "Tesla Advantage" post. It needs an upgrade date for sure.

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/tesla-advantage

Coastal Cruiser. | 12. Oktober 2017

JR! Very happy to see you chime in.

topher | 12. Oktober 2017

"completely eliminating their 'first mover advantage', and claiming 75% or more of the EV market 'in about three years'"

The thing is, the ICE car makers could in fact do that, but Tesla would still be growing. The EV market is getting bigger faster than Tesla. ICE car makers gaining 75% of the EV market would be doing so at the expense of their own ICE market, not Tesla's.

Thank you kindly.

rgrant | 12. Oktober 2017

@ReD - Serenity Now!

rgrant | 12. Oktober 2017

It’s not like Tesla has infinite resources to draw upon. The slowdown on the Gigafactory construction and the lack of announcement of GFs 3, 4 & 5 makes me think Elon’s been told to slow down the capital expenditures a bit and deliver on what’s already been committed. ;)

ReD eXiLe ms us | 12. Oktober 2017

topher: The same guys have stated for years that traditional automobile manufacturers in general, and luxury brands in particular, could wipe the floor with Tesla 'any time they wanted to'. They neglect to point out that they don't want to. Because building long range fully electric cars designed to defeat Tesla's efforts would mean building something for a competitive price point that similarly exposed the worst aspects of their own ICE vehicles.

It is due to those self imposed willingness limits (which resulted in GM releasing the VOLT as a Honda FIT clone at a $20,000 premium and more expensive than ATS LaCrosse, or MALIBU) that the majority of traditional automobile manufacturers must state it will take until 2020 or later to match what Tesla was doing two or three years ago. So not exactly 'anytime' they want, but presuming Tesla were to fall into an interminable state of stagnation and an extended period of Production Hell wherein they never reached mass market build levels and abandoned any attempt at innovation and maybe even ran out of money due to the markets FINALLY listening to ANALysts and not 'falling for it' whenever Tesla has a new offering of shares or bonds -- then maybe the failures of their business model would be exposed as a farce and $#0r+s could prevail triumphantly.

My, and they claim my outlook is full of over-the-top wishful thinking... because there is no way in [HECK] that Tesla is going to sit around for three years twiddling their thumbs waiting for everyone else to catch up to them. That isn't how competition works. Instead, you put forth your very best effort so that competitors are inspired to do... Better. A strong industry depends upon strong, capable competition.