Model 3

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RHD Model 3 waiting room closes - RHDs are coming through the pipeline and it’s time to retire this

edited September 2019 in Model 3
This was the waiting room for those of us at the end of the Tesla queue - Right Hand Drive Model 3! With RHDs now being delivered in volumes, this waiting closed its doors on 16 September 2019, a mere 1265 days after reservations opened.

Current Tesla RHD markets with stores are UK, Ireland, Japan, Hong Kong, Macau, Australia and New Zealand. Collectively those markets represent 9.1% of Tesla's global population reach so while we're relatively small we are thankfully not ignored.

Orders opened in the UK on 1 May and Australia, NZ, Japan and Hong Kong on 31 May, and the first RHD Model 3s were delivered in the UK on 20 June and in Australia on 30 August. So a total wait of 1177 days for the first reservers in the UK and 1248 days for those in Australia.

The guessing competition to predict the date on which you think the first RHD Model 3 will be delivered to a retail customer (i.e. non-Tesla-employee) has been run and won... and the winner is @greg! His guess of 30 June turned out to be inspired, since there was only one massively earlier guess, leaving @greg the whole month of June plus some to score the win. So well done @greg, you can now cash in on your Tesla fame and glory!

The rules were:
1. One entry per person. It must be a date in dd/mm/yy format.
2. You cannot nominate a date that someone else has already guessed, or a date in the past.
3. The winner is “nearest the pin”. If two guesses are equidistant from the right date, the honour will be shared.
4. The winning date will be the date on which the first RHD Model 3 is delivered to a customer, in the timezone in which that delivery is made.
5. No correspondence will be entered into. Like mntlvr23, I make the rules up, I am a law unto myself. I can giveth, I can taketh away.

THE 12 ENTRIES:

Knocked out
———————————
31/03/19 - Ross1 (even more optimistic than greg)

WINNER!
———————
30/06/19 - greg (turns out his optimism was justified!)

Thanks for playing
—————————————————-
07/07/19 - noleaf4me (going for the other unambiguous date)
15/07/19 - priit (entered before the Musk tweet and might nail it)
31/07/19 - gordon.segar (the 40 month wait)
08/08/19 - M3BlueGeorgia (the first LHD market contestant, and unambiguous date to boot)
17/08/19 - bj (only because this is 1234 days)
30/08/19 - johnmann (adding to the date jam)
31/08/19 - virgored (hemming in jdanielp_uk from one side)
01/09/19 - jdanielp_uk (doing the climate dance)
02/09/19 - tas (hemming in jdanielp_uk from the other)
23/09/19 - Furry Mark (the Musk will Deliver in Time but only Just option)

Not all Model 3 variants and options are offered across all RHD markets which is still irritating. White interior, for example, is available on all three Model 3 variants offered in the UK and Ireland, but only on Performance in AU/NZ, and not at all in Japan, Hong Kong and Macau. Come on Elon, this needs to be fixed!

Thanks for your interest in this thread, it’s been fun!
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Comments

  • edited April 2019
    I've resurrected this thread after its mysterious deletion... unfortunately the posting history is lost, but all the competition entries remain intact which is the important thing!

    And sorry @Ross1, I didn't get my Model 3 on Sunday, so the clock is ticking on your entry. You will win outright if the first RHD Model 3 is delivered on or before 15th May. Good luck with that :)
  • edited November -1
    Only if no one else takes that slot?
  • edited April 2019
    31/0819
  • edited April 2019
    23/09/19 - the last day of summer 2019 here in the UK
  • edited April 2019
    Sorry Vigored and Furry Mark think the competition closed on 1 April.

    So @Ross1 you are the "current holder of the stick" until 15 May when it passes to me, until 4th of July.
    \When @noleaf4me takes over.

    @bj Mr Googles wayback machine might have posts up to the last part of March if you want to resurrect/summarise.

    However, the post header has the gist of what went on leading to the above predictions so that's what counts.
  • edited April 2019
    Since the original thread disappeared into a black hole on Sunday, denying last-minute entries, I’ll invoke Clause (5) of the rules, and re-open the competition up until the RHD configurator first opens anywhere in the world (i.e. the last entry accepted will be the last one posted here with a time stamp one day prior to that).

    So the competition might be open for a week or two more... or longer :) let’s wait and see!
  • edited November -1
    Does that mean you are undermining me?
  • edited April 2019
    @Ross1 - not you personally, no, but the thing with this kind of competition is that the early entrants get their choice of date - the field is wide open and they can choose pretty much any date they like the look of. The flip side is that later entrants can box someone in to reduce their chances - or even knock them out.

    In the end, if someone nails the date, they win, no matter when they entered.

    Anyway, with only 9 entries lodged over a five month period, it’s not exactly the most popular thread here. I figured the more entries the merrier...
  • edited November -1
    Oh yeah, and in case anyone gets ideas, you can’t nominate a date in the past. Addendum to rule 2.
  • edited April 2019
    I’m going to pick 31/07/19 as it’s a nice round 40 months from when reservations opened
  • edited April 2019
    Well as I understand it, unless the UK politicians can somehow, pull of an even more impossible ask than anything Elon has ever done, and get their collective shit together to get an extension.

    Then Brexit as it stands will have to happen this Friday 12 of April.

    So what happens if both the configurator and the Brexit happen on the exact same day? Will the two forces combine in a colossal struggle for dominance, each trying to best the other [like Tories and the rest of the UK parliamentarians],
    and yet annihilate simply each other in a huge explosion so that all those UK folks find that their Model 3 reservations and the entire UK system of law and order disappears into a cloud of greasy black smoke.

    And if that did happen, what would we care about more?

    RHD reservation of course. No one will miss the UK or give a shit about them once Brexit happens.

    All we will do is breath a huge sigh of relief that at least someone took care of that rotting carcass of a country and finally put it out of its misery [ort thank god they saw sense and decided to stay in the EU].

    All the while we happily configure our RHD cars, knowing that the world will truly be a better place when WE get our cars.
  • edited April 2019
    You will have heard about the recent arrangement between FCA in Europe and Tesla to combine sales of both vehicles in to a "pool" as allowed by EU regulations.

    This in effect means Tesla can sell ZEV credits to FCA for all its European models. We don't know the exact shape of those credits i.e. does it work on a add up all emissions of all vehicles and divide by number to get average. Or is it more subtle/nuanced than that and goes off the battery size and such. My guess its "bums on seats" - and cars count not batteries in them for these ZEV credits. But time will tell. If it is just bums on seats, then Tesla makes more money to more cars it ships in Europe - whether SR+ models, or P3Ds so they may attempt to go for quantity over ASP. Who knows at this point.

    IF *and this is a big IF* and only IF - the UK remains in the EU, then all sales of RHD vehicles will also allow Tesla to participate in using RHD deliveries in the UK as part of the same scheme.

    The relevance to RHD deliveries means that Tesla will suddenly have a larger pool of cars to claim ZEV credits for as RHD vehicles in the UK now qualify - for now anyway.

    This may mean, that Tesla opens up reservations for UK reservation holders much earlier than planned. Although, Musk was probably aware of this arrangement when he gave previous delivery estimates. It remains to be seen if UK RHD deliveries will accelerate.

    I'd say now, that if the UK looks like it will remain in the EU beyond May 22nd (last date permissible before the EU has said to the UK you have to agree to have MEP elections - or you have push off - by law). Then the UK RHD reservations may open up, or if already opened up, may find their VINs are suddenly allocated and cars on on their way.

    Right now, I'd suggest to all competition entry holders - "hold all tickets" - while the Stewards Enquiry is underway.

    And while I guessed that Hong Kong or Japanese folks might get the first RHD eelivery, I'm swinging to maybe the UK being first, or a close second - at least for the initial deliveries.
  • edited April 2019
    @greg - Interesting speculation... but time will tell, and we are not far away from finding out.

    I think if UK orders were opened up already (and “cars on their way”) we would have heard about it! I think UK was the first RHD market for Model X, ahead of Japan and Hong Kong, and about 2 weeks ahead of AUS, so it would not surprise me if similar happened for Model 3.
  • edited April 2019
    02/09/19
  • edited November -1
    That is old news @Ross1 - that Model 3 was the one spotted on 26 March. CleanTechnica asleep at the wheel :)
  • edited April 2019
    Its the 13th of April and Brexit didn't happen yet, not sure anymore exactly when it will happen [and don't to be honest I don't give a fuck either - just get on with it guys whatever the decision is].

    The Brexit dates keep getting changed to something between 22 May and 30 October 2019 and the end of never depending on whether there is a "plan" from the UK or not, a new Tory leader is likely to be elected or not, an election is called or not, there is a referendum or not, or the current month, or current season, in English, has one or more of the letters r,a or u in it.

    So, I think its pretty certain, RHD configurations will open sooner than Brexit.
  • edited November -1
    In an article about electric cars in the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday, it was mentioned that “Tesla’s next offering, the Model 3, is available from July.”

    It’s the first time I have seen a specific month nominated for deliveries! The Configurator would need to open in early May (at the latest) for this to be possible, assuming 2 weeks min to manufacture and 4-6 weeks to ship.
  • edited April 2019
    @bj
    I'm hoping that RHD configs will open before end of April, so we can choose to lock in the low price for FSD before the price hike we all know is coming for FSD. Because right now watching all this happening is like watching the tide come in but not being able to move off the beach to stay dry.

    As long as I can configure my car with FSD [before the price rises], I won't mind if it takes month more than usual to deliver.

    However, available in AUS in July, might well mean I win depending on when in July the first one is delivered.
  • edited November -1
    1111 is worthy of a bump.
  • edited November -1
    I don’t know how I missed this gem, but on 13 April Elon Musk tweeted that “RHD order page should be live within a few weeks. Deliveries start hopefully June/July.”

    So there you have it, July it is.
  • edited April 2019
    Hmm, interesting @bj.

    So if the order page goes live 1 May (just our luck it does to correspond with the FSD price hike!), allow 2-4 weeks for build. Another 4 min for for shipping to wherever, yeah mid June to mid July come into focus as likely initial delivery timeframes.

    Need to put some thought into my config. Particularly The paint colour. Tossing up between Pearl White and Multi-coat Red, then which model (LR of course), but so many choices. Not going to not have FSD though.

    I. Feel. That. The. Future. Is. Arriving. Much. Too. Fast. I. Am. Not. Fully. Prepared. For. It.

    I. Think. I. May. Have. A. Case. Of. Imminent. "Tesla. In. Your. Future." Shock.

    Also so many competitions you could run - some spring to mind:

    When the order page opens up first. When first VIN is allocated to a RHD line waiter, what country the first delivery is actually made to.
    [as side comps. to the what date when the first delivery is made].
  • edited April 2019
    I hear you greg - it’s weird that we’ve been waiting so long... and very soon we will need to configure!! How can I not be ready after 3 years?! But like you, in an odd way, I feel not ready!

    I’m bummed that LR RWD is now “off menu” because there is no guarantee that choice will be provided to RHD markets. Tesla are clearly wanting to streamline their production, so within the smaller RHD pool there’s probably even less interest in offering customers more than the 3 variants they appear to have settled on. But I will still ask.

    Colour... still haven’t decided. Definitely not black, almost certainly not red. Our Nissan LEAF is blue, so we probably won’t go with another blue car. So that leaves pearl white and midnight silver metallic. I will go with the white interior, so I may go with pearl white although in the past I think white cars look boring. MSM looks a little dark for my liking - maybe if I saw one in the flesh I might change my mind.

    Country of first delivery is tricky - I think it will be Japan or New Zealand, as the closest RHD markets to California. The boat trip to UK is more indirect. But there’ll only be a few days in it I reckon, not weeks.
  • edited April 2019

    bj | April 17, 2019

    I don’t know how I missed this gem, but on 13 April Elon Musk tweeted that “RHD order page should be live within a few weeks. Deliveries start hopefully June/July.”

    So there you have it, July it is.
    .....
    July? August/September. There you have it :)
  • edited April 2019
    Today in the Q1 financial update audio call, Musk mentioned upcoming RHD deliveries and volumes.

    You can find the webcast on ir.tesla.com under "Events and presentations" where the Q1 newsletter/update is found, and a copy of the audio conference call when they post it. If you want to do your own research.

    He indicated they expect quite significant demand to be coming from RHD countries.

    Musk also made a comment (missed by most in the call I'd bet) when asked if they can "sell" [meaning deliver] 100K cars in Q2.

    He said in response that "they [have so much demand, that Tesla] could sell 400K cars".
    [and other comments make the point that the demand is for LR vehicles or SR+ vehicles/range].

    This maybe a "Demand cliff" - maybe - but one that rises up ahead of you, not one going down under you!

    Also he said on FSD [not that many of you probably care] that there will be no benefit to upgrading existing FSD computers in the car with the new ones now being placed in all cars now, until 2 months or more away as the feature set in FSD won't significantly diverge from the version "2" feature set before then.

    So it will be a race between getting your RHD Model 3 and the new FSD features I think. Not that that matters.
    As even if FSD updates ships late, you'll get it via OTA anyway.
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