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Solar Roof Progression (UPDATE 5/19)

edited July 2020 in General
****UPDATE: 5/19/2020****
**Updated Pricing Across the Board**

Live data tracker!!!! https://drive.google.com/open?id=1dT4SJZRL1BQk0N1S82U1ozSqGF25EA0g

Solar Roof Cost for my house:
1,859sf Roof
9.36kW System
Est. Annual Production: 8258 kWh
NO POWERWALLS
$35,202
-$2,184 (NYSERDA Rebate)
-$100 (reservation fee)
$32,917 Total

Financing Info:
20 year loan @ 6.99%:
$255.01/mo

NYS Tax Credit: $5,000
Federal Tax Credit: $5,877
Total: $10,877

Shingles Roof Estimates: ~$16,000

Life span of Shingles Roof: ~25 years. Life span of the Solar Roof: 60 years. I think its more realistic to use 50 years.
Shingles Roof needs 2 replacements by the end of Solar Roof life, which translates to ~$32,000.

25 year warranty guarantees 87.5% of solar's nominal rated power generation due to degradation at the end of the warranty.

Solar Power Region Info for Albany, NY: See data tracker for more info.
Potential Annual Energy Generation: 8,258kWh
Potential Annual Value of Energy: $929.02

50 year cost:
Shingles Roof: -$32,000.

Solar Roof CASH Cost:
Electricity Value: 900x50x0.875= +$39,375
Home Appreciation Value: ~5% (traditional solar panels) = ~+$10,000
Tax Credits: +$10,877
No Roof Replace @ 25years: +$16,000
Solar Roof: -$32,917

Add them all up and you get: +$43,335

Solar Roof LOAN Cost:
Electricity Value: 900x50x0.875= +$39,375
Home Appreciation Value: ~5% (traditional solar panels) = ~+$10,000
Tax Credits: +$10,877
No Roof Replace @ 25years: +$16,000
Solar Roof: -$61,201

Add them all up and you get: +$15,051

Break Even CASH:
Time to break even: 10,000 + 10,877 - 32,917 = -12,040
-12,040 + (900*X) = 0
X = 13.37 years

Break Even LOAN:
Time to break even: 10,000 + 10,877 - 61,201 = -40,324
(-40,324 + 16,000) + (900*X) = 0
X = 27.02 years
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Comments

  • edited January 2020
    Nuked the old thread because im going to move forward with this until i get more information that may or may not be desirable.

    Called Tesla yesterday and asked about main panel compatibility. Any 200A, 250A, 300A main panel should be compatible with the system that they install. I currently have a 60A main so that pretty much doesnt work anymore so im getting an upgrade before the roof.
  • edited January 2020
    Any time frame on when solar roofs are going to become available? I figure my roof has got about five years left unless a hurricane takes it off but Tesla said they were coming out with tiles several years ago but nothing ever happened except for the model houses from Desperate Housewives that they used and a couple other ones.
    I plan on retiring in about 5 years so if I stay then it would be worth it to have them installed, but if I decide to move I don't know if I would be able to recover the difference in the cost.
  • edited November -1
    Nope. I asked about that and he couldnt even give an answer because they have absolutely no idea. But i bet if you live in California it wont be much longer. My roof is definitely at the end of its life this year, could probably make it 1 more year but would be best to get it done now while the federal tax credit is 26%. Next year its down another 4%, which in the grand scheme of things is really alot with the price of the roof and potentially powerwalls.

    Im imagining if i ever move i am going to turn my house into a rental property. The roof makes sense.
  • edited January 2020
    Tesla has already been installing them now in California. I hope to get my roof on in a few days - it keeps sliding out each week due to rain, but they have already completed others locally. They need 3-4 days of clear weather. I suspect once the rain abates in our area, they will be going like gangbusters. Powerwalls are mounted, as these only take one day, so easier to find a single non-rainy day.

    I expect the major issue is having Tesla roofing teams available in your area. Once they open the solar roof up to all roofing contractors, I'd expect the entire USA to be covered. That may happen later this year.
  • edited January 2020
    TeslaTap- Are the tile design options the same as the ones they originally came out with?
  • edited November -1
    They only have Textured tiles, but that's what I wanted. Other styles are not available yet.
  • edited January 2020
    I like the textured. Smooth is also pretty slick looking, but is relatively indifferent to me.
  • edited November -1
    @TeslaTap.com

    >>> "Once they open the solar roof up to all roofing contractors, I'd expect the entire USA to be covered." <<<

    I don't see that as being all that advisable as that could, potentially, expose Tesla to a variety of liability claims stemming from improperly installed and/or inadequately operating solar roof systems.
  • edited January 2020
    Yea i was kind of hoping that Tesla would install the roof, and not some other contracting company who is going to do a cob job to get it done super fast.
  • edited January 2020
    So far I'm been impressed with Tesla's team. They have their own independent inspectors too that come out at various points during the work. My guess is if they allow others to install the solar roof, they would retain the inspections to ensure the jobs are done correctly. They may also just stick with doing it all themselves in the future.

    While the major markets could be addressed by Tesla, I don't see how they could get enough volume to justify teams in rural areas, so it may be a choice between no availability or allowing contractors in select areas.

    It will be interesting to see how they change in 2021 when they up production capacity and what new directions they take.
  • edited January 2020
    I am crossing my fingers that they get to my area this year.
  • edited January 2020
    @TeslaTap.com

    I think it'll come down to "volume" as well and can see them continuing to keep installations 'in house' to ensure both the quality of the install and the integrity of the system's performance since customer satisfaction and positive public perception will both be top priorities.
  • edited November -1
    Just got a call that my solar roof design is done, call tonight to discuss!!!! I wonder if that had anything to do with the fact that i called to verify main panel compatibility and they realized that i was actually a serious customer.
  • edited January 2020
    OP updated based on call with Tesla representative 1/27 (today).
  • edited November -1
    Some more information. According to Zillow and hundreds of thousands of homes, having solar increases the value of your home by 5%. The true number is 5.1%, and if anything the solar roof would be more valuable because its a roof that can last about 60 years. So if i dont have to replace this roof until im 86, thats a pretty good deal.

    After the 25 year warranty expires, the solar panels themselves are guaranteed to still maintain 87.5% of their rated capacity of generation. Which is not that much degradation over more than two decades.

    I have decided today to move forward with the solar roof. Installation should begin somewhere after the beginning of Apirl.
  • edited January 2020
    Live data tracker out!!
  • edited January 2020
    @andy.connor.e - Good info. So if your house is worth more than $1M, spending $50K on solar returns $50K in house value, and you save even more from the free electricity you use. Lots of variables here - house value, how large a solar system you install, cost of that system, and how much electricity you use. Still, not too hard to figure it out. Also, 26% of the solar install can be a credit on taxes too. Some states offer additional deals, but not California.

    I hope to have the solarroof panels finished being installed tomorrow. It may take a while for PG&E to approve and allow activation. I've heard up to 4 weeks. So far the Tesla Energy team have been excellent.
  • edited January 2020
    Yes i will essentially recover 50% of the cost from the tax credits and house value. And i wont be paying a dime because im going to just siphon money out of my airbnb income. So to me its just worth it across the board. I also want to stick it to family members to show that its possible, this is the economics of it, and maybe neighbors will ask about it.
  • edited January 2020
    Final property assessment this Monday. Its been months of silence and now everythings moving very fast.
  • edited February 2020
    OP has been updated to reflect real world economic calculations.

    Disclaimer: These calculations are specific to my property, my areas exposure to sunlight, and my electricity rates. Your numbers may vary.
  • edited February 2020
    Is the 6.99% loan rate from Tesla or someplace else?
    That rate seems high since Home Equity Credit lines are currently lower. You can also do a refi on your mortgage and get an even lower rate, but may have some closing costs.
    Also can you deduct the interest on your loan as a home improvement or does it not qualify since it is maintenance?
  • edited February 2020
    Financing is through Mosaic. I dont have enough home equity to pay for this. Will look into the interest write off. I would think that it should be considered home improvement since the solar roof will increase the property value.
  • edited February 2020
    My electricity generation estimated at 1390 bucks a year 3140sqft roof 9.3 kWh glass roof 43k before credits in GA. Paid for roof replacement 3 years ago 12k only bc I knew owner, home Depot gave us 18k estimate lol.
  • edited March 2020
    Final design is in. Solar roof will be getting installed in the next 60 days.
  • edited November -1
    Looks like in my state there is a tax exemption for adding solar. If you are reassessed, the solar roof would be tax exempt for 15 years for me, which is 75% the loan duration, not a bad deal.
    https://www.tax.ny.gov/research/property/assess/manuals/vol4/pt1/sec4_01/sec487.htm
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