Model S

COVID-19 discussion thread for all

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Comments

  • edited March 28
    @tes-s....very good link...thank you!
  • edited March 28
    Your welcome. If anyone else has interviews and quotes from doctors that are sharing their experiences please post them.
  • edited March 28
    "Just wash your hands and don't worry." Those two things will definitely help. Worrying lowers your immunity. Probably a few other things we need to do as well though. I realize you are first responder. So imagine the world trade center area on 9/11. Not what we are dealing with but plenty of folks on the front line are dealing with their own 9/11 and are asking for help as they are drowning in critical patients from CV19 as well as your other run of the mill critical illnesses. They/we are risking life to care for folks with understaffed and under equipped facilities. Have you been in those circumstances? I can tell you it is like playing Russian Roulette with the lives of your community and your own life. Remember the risk factor list? We can support the efforts and sacrifices being made by doing what it takes to slow this down to a level the critically ill can be treated. We have to. If the system breaks, the flood of collateral damage spills into every aspect of our lives. I like your carefree and whimsical approach on an entertainment level. I think Trump is entertaining. Do I wish he had a show about being president rather than being our real leader of choice? Yep.
  • edited November -1
    @bj Trump is a politician and has to deal with a hostile media. It's his "act" so to speak. He's using every media briefing the live a debate or political ad. You know who we aren't seeing? Biden... That's not a coincidence. Trump is balancing the pandemic with the economic concerns very carefully and so far quite effectively which is why his population is rising. But he's not out of the woods yet and needs to be careful as this will define him and will determine if he has a 2nd term. The media desperately wants to prevent that. I'm not picking a side, just calling it like it is. It would be great to see him like Cuomo but he can't do that with a hostile media...
  • edited March 28
    @bj I've been in several life and death situations where information was limited and had to make tough decisions... One thing I learned is that you sometimes can't save everybody. Trying to do so can have the exact opposite effect. Often times you have to detach yourself so that you can make a data driven decision. I've been on the receiving end of that as well. Long story short I needed a CASEVAC and by air it would have been minutes. However that would have been too dangerous so not only did I not get a help, I was told to recover the equipment from the locals and evac my casualty by ground. Oh and don't hurt/kill any locals that aren't a threat in the process. I remember feeling nothing at the time. It was just a rgr and let's get to work. They put a USMC F/A-18 over us that night just in case and it made some of us feel more comfortable. Was actually in awe thinking to myself "who gets to see $hit like this?". So I know risk and what it's like being in life and death situations. I've seen disasters first hand as well. I was on scene during the California Wildfires as well. So this isn't my first rodeo. A little different being a virus and all but nothing we can't handle. So that's why I'm not panicked.
  • edited March 28
    The issue is the exponential rise among new cases .. It is currently at 30% every 2 days so 1.3 to the 32 th power is 4427 and with new cases at say 50,000 today or the next it reaches 221 million. That is in 64 days from now since we are at tens of thousands of new cases daily and remember we have very very inadequate testing. The only way is to reduce the exponentiation but so far in Italy and Europe severe shut down has yet to show promise.... it is not working probably because enough were infected before the lock down occurred or that the lock down is leaky. The USA will probably be far worse than Italy since we are experiencing higher exponentiation. Few don't expect our hospitals to be swamped and have to make very difficult choices as to who gets in. Should it be a young smoker or an aged vegetarian that gets admitted? Should the slim be treated ahead of the obese...women ahead of men since they are more needed to replace the lost lives with new ones?
    We have lost the opportunity to keep America Great by the Make America Great Again President.
    The opportunity was squandered for several weeks with head in the sand and dismissive talk about 15 cases will soon be zero or that he is not a shipping clerk for swaps PPE's and test kits after promising all that wanted a test could get one. Today he said we have all the ventilators we need. This is not confirmed by our hospitals.
    In the short term we are in dire straits with the ships captain going around in circles.
  • edited March 28
    Panic is not needed. Proper action and information are paramount.

    @darth's posts above outline exactly why he is ill-equipped to understand and offer any actionable information on a pandemic. This is a very different "rodeo", on many levels.
  • edited March 28
    Why is it hard to imagine something that already happens routinely? Hospitals reach capacity. 2.7 beds per 1000 citizens, not uniformly distributed. 70% obviously translates to 700 patients for those 2 beds. Not hard to understand at all.
  • edited March 28
    To clarify, 700 people might be infected, though likely only 70 will actually need a hospital bed during their course. Of course, anybody infected is going to be concerned about if they will be part of that statistic, so many more than 10% are likely to present and be triaged away. My friend in New Orleans is being treated by medical professionals, but at her house because they are the international epicenter of the virus right now and resources are scarce.
  • edited November -1
    "It is currently at 30% every 2 days so 1.3 to the 32 th power is 4427 and with new cases at say 50,000 today or the next it reaches 221 million. That is in 64 days from now since we are at tens of thousands of new cases daily and remember we have very very inadequate testing."

    Is that how it grows/spreads? I have seen it depicted as a bell-curve if left to it's own devices; a flattened curve based on success of remediation efforts. Once more than a certain percentage of the population has the disease, the rate starts to decrease because they are no longer spreaders.
  • edited March 28
    Hospitals are intentionally full all the time - it is all about the benjamins. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hospitals-the-cost-of-admission-03-12-2012/
  • edited March 28
    Now Trump is toying with a quarantine..locking you up in your neighborhood and not being allowed to leave your state. In 60 days with many of us locked up it is possible we will open our windows and shout referring to Trump "Lock him up". If it was OK to shout " Lock her up" when H Clinton wasn't locking you up it would seem more appropriate if Trump locks you up to shout "Lock him up" in return.... primarily since he is the major cause of wasting time during the onset of this crisis
  • edited March 28
    Our Governor, "Snake" Inslee, just freed up Realtors so that they can continue to work on pending listings. Apparently they are not essential.

    Now I am worried that we are paying too much. I imagine Airbnb properties will hit the market soon along with retiree homes that rely on IRA/401k income. There could be pent up demand too but that seems less likely.
  • edited March 28
    "Now Trump is toying with a quarantine."

    They will find fault if he imposes a quarantine. They will find fault if he doesn't.
  • edited March 29
    tes-s | March 28, 2020
    Hospitals are intentionally full all the time - it is all about the benjamins.

    No, @tes. That isn't correct. The article talks about inappropriate admissions.

    Don't confuse the issue.
  • edited March 29
    Hospitals are pushing to get people out the doors because of fixed payment by diagnosis.
    #DRG
  • edited March 29
    I found this analysis compelling ..shows a way to contain the damage and get things moving again. However
    it was written a while ago and perhaps the window is gone, at least for the NYC area.

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

    BTW I live in Santa Clara ..we had cases early. My employer sent us all home two weeks ago (easy to WFH as a high tech person so why not get us off the streets?) and the Governor did the same for the entire state soon after.

    RE: all the carping on these forums now: I was an early usenet user back in the 80's and learned that it is very difficult to have difficult discussions on forums without degrading into crap. So you wont see me back here.

    Please read the article though, it's interesting....(warning, it's long)

    Cheers,

    hope everybody does ok.
  • edited March 29
    The US hit 1000 deaths two days ago. Tonight, it is 2000. It is not a bell shaped curve and only
    looks like that if it is interrupted by an intervention or by exhausting the susceptible population.
  • edited March 29
    Bighorn | March 28, 2020
    Hospitals are pushing to get people out the doors because of fixed payment by diagnosis.
    #DRG

    BH - you beat me to this one. The one you answered remains utterly clueles-s in this thread, from top to bottom.
  • edited March 29
    @stiction
    Good analysis and hopeful if the will is there.
  • edited March 29
    My brother works in Beijing and took this lightly like most did in the beginning. This evening he sent me this excerpt from something he read recently..

    "With the current coronavirus, researchers are also finding that there are more asymptomatic cases than were known early on in the pandemic. Classified data from the Chinese government that was reported in the South China Morning Post indicated that up to a third of all people who tested positive for the coronavirus could have been silent carriers. Widespread testing on the Diamond Princess showed that half of the positive cases on board the cruise ship had no symptoms. And officials in Iceland, who have tested a high proportion of citizens in the country, have found similarly high percentages of asymptomatic infection"
  • edited March 29
    I think Fauci might have said ~10% of cases could be sub clinical.
  • edited November -1
    @silver - Yes, that has been identified as a contributor to the spread of the disease and why screening procedures are not capturing all the people infected.
  • edited March 29
    Fauci is the favorite whipping boy of the rabid right.

    Not surprising.
  • edited March 29
    All of the king's horses, all of the king's men, couldn't put Humpty Dumpty back together again... The PRC screwed us by hiding the truth making all of the medical communities stop the spread efforts futile. That has been compounded by the fake news panicdemic and political opportunism... Never let a crisis go to waste right? Thankfully as expected we got data to suggest this pandemic, the actual pandemic not the Hollywood-esque one in the media scaring everyone, is at least an order of magnitude less deadly that what's been reported.
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