Model 3

The Guessing continues: Stock Price at Sept 30 2020

It is a Wednesday.
What could possibly happen in September?
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Comments

  • I am incapable of estimating the post battery day reaction.
  • I am going to be a contrarian and guess $300. There is a possibility of buying the rumors and selling the battery-day facts.
    Although S&P500 inclusion is likely to happen in September too so $300 is probably a stretch but I feel like being a contrarian today :)
  • $650. I've guessed low twice in a row, so here's for high.
  • A whole 8 days after battery day. I am going to guess $800
  • My guess is $500. I think profit takers will keep it from going up, and new money will keep it from dropping.

    Hoping I'm wrong and Andy is right.
  • $420 -- Funding Secured. 😁
  • Honestly, The market cap of TSLA is crazy high for where they are right now. Most of the value is speculative. In 30 days it could be $100 or $800, who knows as the value is based on speculation. Reality should be closer to a value to $100 than $800.

    I have a good chunk of TSLA stock at the moment and I’ve already sold enough to cover my original investment and some profit and am playing with house money. At this point I’m LONG TSLA, so I don’t really care the value in 30 days. I’m more interested in value 10 years from now. I love Musk’s vision of multiple avenues for profit and can’t wait to see where he takes this company over time. I think the sky is the limit so I‘m fully understand the speculative nature of their stock at the moment.
  • @ andy electric:

    andy_connor_e
    Posted 1:24AM
    I am incapable of estimating the post battery day reaction.

    Then:

    A whole 8 days after battery day. I am going to guess $800

    You have gained a lot of confidence sine acquiring the 3-some.
    Do you need counseling?
  • Andy has made a good point: the price is a whole 8 days after BD.
    A week is a long time in politics. 8 days in TSLA is a life.
  • As Tronguy and Papafox and BH might say, there is a lot of manipulation going on.
    If Short interests manage to stay in control, then as you above say, 500-550 is reasonable.
    If it gets loose, @andy.e at 800 is reasonable (when we would have to question a sell?)
    If it escalates before Batday, that could look like 800, then after Batday a short rise then a fall,

    so my guess is:

    900 for Sept 30.
  • $5B in new shares to be issued. This should change the SP calculus. May be a precursor to the S&P announcement or a requested condition of inclusion to ease the buy-in by index funds.
  • Yep: 1%:
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3610383-tesla-raising-capital-market-agreement-for-up-to-5b-in-shares?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=tsla-tesla-to-sell-5b-worth-of-shares-in-equity-distribution-agreement&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3

    We could build a new factory with that!
  • "We could build a new factory with that!"

    Almost like thats exactly what they're going to do. Probably. Maybe.
  • They probably don’t need more than the $8B on hand. This was to help make S&P inclusion an easier lift for funds.
  • Tesla will be getting 250% more capital than the last stock offering, with about half the dilution. Its a good deal for extra billions.
  • Dilution was only 1%, and could have been 10% with poor timing within the past year. Some people don't want any dilution, so the squabbling is interesting to follow. Paying off debt can apparently improve the bottom line by $200M. Otherwise, TSLA never really benefits from their high SP. Low cost borrowing through non-convertible bonds has been argued as a better alternative by those against further dilution.
  • Down to 320 on aftermarket for the record
    (post split of course)
  • New price point is 400 down from 1k
  • Gut feeling only......$650. Incredible progress on the Giga’s and battery day will positively impact stock price.
  • > @lightglass_98051414 said:
    > Gut feeling only......$650. Incredible progress on the Giga’s and battery day will positively impact stock price.

    Wow!! That's bold considering the recent rough ride.

    $525 is my number, slightly higher than the earlier peak.
  • > @Ross1 said:
    > ?^

    I guess some people are copying what stock analysts do: keep revising their forecasts based on what the SP is doing
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