General

Battery Day Countdown - 4...3...2

A few days (as of today - 09/18/20) till Battery Day,
Post your predictions here.

Comments

  • I predict:
    new battery tech
    Stock price increase
    media frenzy

    ...wait - that has already been happening,
    how much better could it get?
  • See Rob Mauer's latest "Tesla Daily" video for great details on Battery Day. I expect a stock price increase, but not huge. Most analysts are still pretty clueless about Tesla. AND, no media frenzy. Espec from mainstream media. They too are pretty clueless about Tesla, but also get much of their income from adverts for Oil companies and legacy auto, and get NO income from Tesla.
  • I predict a soda can sized battery, along with the removal of modules which will increase the specific energy at the pack level while reducing the number of parts in each battery by somewhere around a factor of 10. I also predict that they will be choosing a battery chemistry that is not necessarily ground braking in its existence, but will be the simplest to produce requiring the fewest unique materials which will bring the cost of battery production down by a factor of 2 or 3.

    I expect that through this change in manufacturing, powerwall 3 will be announced either in the form of a completely new version or just battery cell replacement and they may not call it powerwall 3, but could bring the price down from $7500 per powerwall to $5000 or lower. The reason i say this is because thats exactly what they did with the solar roof, they reduced the number of parts by half, by making each roof tile much larger.

    The former predictions is what i anticipate for the mass market vehicles. That being said, i am also predicting either a new battery chemistry or a completely different battery type, ie dry cell via Maxwell or an announcement of a solid state battery in the works that would be used in the Semi. Tesla plans on removing cobalt all together so their current battery chemistry will most likely be discontinued.

    Really, my brain says theres more likely going to be a dry cell or solid state battery announced whether its now or will be here in 2 years. Simply a larger cell that has no tabs for cells & pack implementation (no modules) does not sound like alien technology to me. But at the same time, sitting in the Model 3 did not really feel like a spaceship. So maybe take that with a grain of salt.
  • I predict that no matter what is announced, there will be a bunch of people calling it a revolution and a bunch of people calling it inconsequential.

    I predict that whatever is announced will be good for Tesla, and probably good for future Tesla owners.
  • at least 2 weeks of FUD. with many incoming reasons as to why everything that hasnt been built yet will be better
  • S-T-R-E-T-C-H Guesses.....?
    1. 5GWH Battery Lines for NCA (Installed GNV)?
    2. 5GWH Battery Lines for LFP (installed GNV)?
    3. Model X Discontinued.?
    4. Model S ReFresh includes Crossover Model, plaid, extended range model.?
    5. Nickel Mine partnership.?
    6. Lithium Mine partnership.?
    7. Purchase of Axial Flux Motor developer/factory.? Magnax? AVID? Emrax?
    8. Full chassis casting for Model 3 and Model Y?
    9. Model 2? $
    10. Model 2 pickup?.
    11. MegaFactories as an assembly method, supplementing
    GigaFactories for cars and components.?
    12. Roadster production being installed now in Fremont factory.?
    13. OTA update upping range of recent production.?
    14. Super economy (extended range option) for all models.?
    (for those not wanting or needing lightning speed) (Axial Flux)?
    15. Purchase of unused/unwanted Ford/GM/plants.?
    16. Purchase of Chrysler from Fiat (as a separate company).?
    17. 350 wh for NCA batteries.?
    18. Maxwell super capacitors replacing 12V lead acid batteries.?
    19. Self charging batteries.?
    20. Inductive charging....on street for MS and Semi?
    21. 40 Gwh LFP powerwalls.? W/AutoBidder.?
    22. LFP for utility installations.?
    23. V2G.? W/AutoBidder
    24. Boring Tunnels replacing parking lots at GigaFactories.?
    Coming in from residental areas to specific work areas.
    25. 4070 new battery format with cell to pack installed.?
    26. Change in Panasonic chemistry improving efficiency 10 to 20 percent.
    27. Purchase arrangement for PG&E assets and franchise out of Chapter 7 Bankruptcy (converted from Ch11). Conversion to 100 percent renewables.
    To be operated as a separate company, apart from Tesla. IPO
    to be issued for capital to electrify all of Northern California
    with reliable, responsible service.

    All just uneducated guesses, crazy thoughts, thanks Elon for the opportunity to play along. Anybody else?
    Bob
  • There are two other threads on Battery Day.Another on the stock price following Bat Day. As well in MS the excellent thread on the good time to buy.

    In Model 3 forum, I posted this:


    Ross1
    September 19
    It wont be the subject of batteries which lifts the stock but the other successes and imminent disruptions.
    It is like, who cares about batteries.
    Who cares about power to the grid?
    Perhaps he will announce vehicle to house (reversible),
    a refresh of MS ,
    Plaid,
    something subtle to hold Lucid,
    a new small Cybertruck maybe ,
    China design world mini car (MIC M2),
    solar/ battery powered village at Austin for staff.
    Biggest battery in the world (Ca),
    grid feed in in UK and Germany,
    solar powered coats for polar bears.
    Progress at Berlin, Austin.
    New Terafactory somewhere else.
    Mining rights,
    Nickel sourcing, Cobalt deletion.
    Purchase of Lithium supply chain.
    Price reduction for Powerwalls,
    price reduction for M3, MY.
    New paint tech for Europe.
    Front casting for MY. Castings for M3.
    Hatch for M3.
    Delivery schedules for CT, Semi.
    Not a lot, really, cant imagine why the stock would rise let alone hold. :)
  • Missed the polar bears
  • Ross1
    September 19
    YesIt wont be the subject of batteries which lifts the stock but the other successes and imminent disruptions.
    It is like, who cares about batteries.
    Who cares about power to the grid?
    Perhaps he will announce vehicle to house (reversible),
    a refresh of MS ,
    Plaid,
    something subtle to hold Lucid,
    a new small Cybertruck maybe ,
    China design world mini car (MIC M2),
    solar/ battery powered village at Austin for staff.
    Biggest battery in the world (Ca),
    grid feed in in UK and Germany,
    solar powered coats for polar bears.
    Progress at Berlin, Austin.
    New Terafactory somewhere else.
    Mining rights,
    Nickel sourcing, Cobalt deletion.
    Purchase of Lithium supply chain.
    Price reduction for Powerwalls,
    price reduction for M3, MY.
    New paint tech for Europe.
    Front casting for MY. Castings for M3.
    Hatch for M3.
    Delivery schedules for CT, Semi.
    Not a lot, really, cant imagine why the stock would rise let alone hold. :)
  • > @Ross1 said:
    >
    > Ross1
    > September 19
    > Yes It wont be the subject of batteries which lifts the stock but the other successes and imminent disruptions.
    > yes It is like, who cares about batteries.
    > yes Who cares about power to the grid?
    > yes but not really. Perhaps he will announce vehicle to house (reversible),
    > plaid a refresh of MS ,
    > yes Plaid,
    > yes something subtle to hold Lucid,
    > yes a new small Cybertruck maybe ,
    > yes China design world mini car (MIC M2),
    > no solar/ battery powered village at Austin for staff.
    > sort of Biggest battery in the world (Ca),
    > yes??? grid feed in in UK and Germany,
    > no solar powered coats for polar bears.
    > yes Progress at Berlin, Austin.
    > yes New Terafactory somewhere else.
    > yes Mining rights,
    > yes Nickel sourcing, Cobalt deletion.
    > yes Purchase of Lithium supply chain.
    > sort of Price reduction for Powerwalls,
    > sort of price reduction for M3, MY.
    > No New paint tech for Europe.
    > yes Front casting for MY. Castings for M3.
    > no Hatch for M3.
    > yes Delivery schedules for CT, Semi.
    > yes Not a lot, really, cant imagine why the stock would rise let alone hold. :)
  • Am I good or what?
  • It was exactly what i expected. Manufacturing breakthrough to simplify the process and reduce cost by 50% using simple battery chemistry with the removal of modules. Removal of battery structural support was a bonus that just further increases pack density. The increased power density will allow supercharging speeds some 4-5x higher than today. Gigachargers are next.
  • I will be interested, what Tesla will do about the Nickel-Sulphide Supplier chain?! I would be very interested in how Tesla will restructure its nickel sulfide supply chain for the Future ?!
    At the moment I think in my opinion the best or most optimal solution would be a deal as a supplier or a joint venture agreement with VALE Sa (Martet Cap: ~ 55B USD! Vale would like and will be his nickel - sulphide project called "Clean AER Project (AER stands for Atmospheric Emissions Reduction ') in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada! Vale also has the strength to buy some Nickel Explorer Companies or to start working with them as joint ventures! Small companies like GIGA Metals and / or Canada Nickel etc ... are simply too small and do not produce nickel yet, maybe they will or can, but that is very questionable! Whatever! VALE would also be a better decision than BHP Group (Market Cap: ~ 130BUSD)! Because BHP is also actively involved in the direction of oil and gas! The EV area still plays a secondary role there! At Glencore and Norilsk I see a lot more weak points, so I exclude them! If Tesla would opt for VALE, Tesla would have enough nickel in a few years, and could even put the "competition" under unwanted pressure! So VALE is the right decision for TESLA !!!
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