Model 3

Guesses for quarter deliveries worldwide

Wall St will be disappointed with less than 140000 for 3rd quarter 2020, because "Elon said" they are on track for over 500000 for the year


  • Another record
  • By Al Root
    Oct. 1, 2020

    Consensus estimates for new-car deliveries call for about 140,000 vehicles. The estimates have been creeping up lately, which might affect the ability to produce another “beat” versus expectations.

    Producing a beat on Wall Street is important. Especially for high-growth stocks that are highly valued. Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) trades for 148 times estimated 2021 earnings. Of course, sales are expected to increase about 40% a year for the next few years.

    Analyst estimates for Tesla deliveries usually follow a pattern. They start out high for periods far into the future, get cut as the quarterly date approaches, then rebound nearer to the report date as analysts do their checks and fine-tune estimates.

    Looking at Tesla fourth-quarter 2020 delivery estimates illustrates the pattern. Estimates started at 152,000 in February, shortly after Tesla reported 2019 earnings and management talked about the coming year. Estimates bottomed at 138,000 in April—because of the pandemic. Estimates are now at 169,000.

    The pandemic has muddied the analysis, but the pattern shows up in other quarters. For the fourth quarter of 2019, Tesla delivery estimates started out at about 119,000, fell to 105,000, then crept up to 106,000 just before Tesla reported the figure in January 2020. Tesla delivered 112,000 cars—producing an expectations beat.

    Tesla stock rose about 3% after that report. Whether 112,000 was a real beat is irrelevant. It is for the purpose of Wall Street analysts and short-term traders.

    Assessing Friday’s expected report, JMP Securities Joe Osha thinks the third-quarter delivery number is too aggressive. “A quarter ago, an analysis of our full-year estimates suggested that we were in line with broader expectations for the second-half of the year, although we were admittedly surprised by how well [Tesla] did during the very challenging second quarter,” Osha wrote in a Thursday research report. But now he is below consensus, thinking his peers are optimistic. His number for the third quarter is 123,000, up 36% from the second quarter. Pretty good, but not 140,000. That’s a risk for him. “As we look at the range of potential outcomes we see more downside than upside to the unit delivery outcome.”

    Not everyone is as cautious as Osha. “We believe Tesla with a very strong end to the quarter likely could now be in the [140,000-plus] range,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a Thursday research report. He thinks sales in China were strong in September. China is a key market for Tesla and it is the largest market in the world for battery-powered electric cars.

    Osha at one time had one of the highest price targets on Wall Street for Tesla, but downgraded the stock in July to the equivalent of Hold from Buy. His old price target was $300 a share, but he suspended his price target when downgrading the stock.

    Ives rates shares Hold as well, but his price target is higher at $475 a share.

    The stock was up 3.5% to $444.23 Thursday afternoon. Tesla shares are up 425% year to date, far better than comparable returns of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average and traditional automotive supplier stocks.

    Shares are up more than 4.5% since Tesla hosted its battery technology day on Sept. 22, although the stock initially sold off, apparently because of higher expectations for the event.

    Write to Al Root at [email protected]
  • If below 140,000 stock will drop 10%
  • I see a lot of new Teslas; the numbers will be amazing.
  • > @"yudansha™" said:
    > I see a lot of new Teslas; the numbers will be amazing.

    Just came back from a bike ride

    I think it was 1 in 20
  • Perhaps they were being delivered in bulk to your area?
  • Stock will drop either way the next day. Always does.

  • Seeing more and more Ys in my area.
  • The numbers have been reported.
  • Nice work, Tesla. 49k more than Q2 and 42k more than 2019 Q3. Amazing.

    Tesla Q3 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries
    Oct 2, 2020
    PALO ALTO, Calif., October 2, 2020 – In the third quarter, we produced just over 145,000 vehicles and delivered nearly 140,000 vehicles.

    Production Deliveries Subject to operating lease accounting
    Model S/X 16,992 15,200 13%
    Model 3/Y 128,044 124,100 7%
    Total 145,036 139,300 7%

    In terms of days of sales, new vehicle inventory declined further in Q3 as we continue to improve our delivery efficiency.
    Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q3 earnings. Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
    Investor Relations Contact:
    [email protected]

    Congratulations to everyone working at Tesla for the amazing achievement
  • And pre-market is down about 4% as of 8:40 this morning. I'm not sure if that has improved since they posted or not. It's the first chance I had to check it.
  • Its because of your POTUS and FLOTUS contracting C virus,
    Selling 3/4 of my TSLA for the time being.
  • -5% from POTUS covid incertainty news
    +1% from the quarter results achievement
  • POTUS going down can only be positive for Tesla in the long run.
  • Oh...good point on that. I hadn't looked at overall pre-market for the trend. I normally don't see that until after the bell.

    And while news is reporting that he's positive, I remain skeptical. The timing is a little suspect for someone known to have truth issues.
  • Never know what to believe with him...I thought the same thing.
  • S&P 500 passed over Tesla again.
  • Irrelevant really. Tsla continues to outperform the S&P.
  • Which may be why they are being excluded....
  • shorts would have everyone believe its because they dont qualify.
  • Shouldn’t there be all kinds of posts here now that the results are in?
  • ....both relevant and irrelevant. Usually happens.
    We are getting blase about continuous change.
    But this quarter was the best ever, congratulations Team Tesla!
  • Taking guesses now for end of 2020:
    They need to honor 500,000 for the year, what are we up to?
    Then we might preume to guess end of 2021.
    Why couldn't it be 1,000,000 ?
    Q1: 210
    Q2: 260
    Q3: 350
    Q4: 450
    Including in Q4 production beginning in Germany, Texas and of course MY ramping up in China.
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