General

A 'MuskRat' Paradigm Shift...

I'm a small retail TESLA investor and a die hard ole fart "MuskRat"...!!!

It's not difficult to see, what appears to be a strong negative downplay bias on "the street". Professional analysts using terms like "hype" in place of 'projections' and posting ridiculously LOW valuations..? Consistently falling back on.."the competition is 'hot on the heels' of Tesla." Like two years out with production is deemed "competition"...? It assumes of course, Tesla does NOTHING for the next two years while it 'waits' for the 'competition' to actually get close. Personally...I see this under-valued PR as a GOOD thing. Yes, short term it suppresses prices...but it allows more time for retail investors like myself to get invested. A strong loyal retail long term investor base reduces volatility and increases stability. The institutional investors will come...they follow 'value'. They can't help themselves...

It makes me question WHY the downplay devaluation knowing they are misrepresenting the company they work for and the investors they represent..? Is it...?
1. A coordinated and concerted effort to suppress Tesla stock..?
2. Analysts using the same outdated and irrelevant industry model projections for EV that ICE manufactures have been using for defining THEIR profit projections...?
3. ...are they being 'bought' or blackmailed, because they seem to be otherwise intelligent people..?

The SnP seems to be playing by the same handbook as it meanders around, kicking tires, trying to decide if Tesla is ready and worthy of their "invitation"...?

Questions...? Does Elon have a 'say'...yes or no...as to whether or not he CHOOSES to accept, decline or post-pone their invitation at the time it's being offered...?

Can he defer his 'inclusion' to a future time of HIS choosing...?

Is it simply 'assumed' the 'invitee' will automatically accept..?

What would happen if Elon 'post-poned' Tesla's 'inclusion'..? An indefinite 'delay' may very well redefine their sense of 'urgency', value and demand, particularly if the stock is trading higher in a 'better market environment'. As a long term retail share holder, I'm ok with delayed gratification. This 'not yet' strategy would be novel shift of power..and lift some eyebrows...or is this being TOO disruptive..?

...I've never seen Elon shy away from an innovative disruption strategy in the past...? Yer doing an amazing job Elon. Take care of your body and your health. Balance is conducive to the long term. I wish you peace of mind and good health, your prosperity is assured...!

...THANK YOU...for helping me to assure mine...!!!
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Comments

  • It would be easy to say most analysts are just incompetent. You'd wonder how they keep their jobs when they have been so wrong every year for 8+ years with TSLA! In most industries, you wouldn't last a year for being so incompetent, so there must be some other reason they've kept their jobs.

    I expect most just push the stocks that someone in corporate says they should push. They may have a lot of Exxon stock so, they feel obligated to spike TSLA with news of imaginary competitors and how it's so easy that anyone can make an EV. The fact that there is still no real competitor to Tesla's 2012 Model S says a lot. The fact that Tesla is in multiple industries including power and solar is also ignored.

    Seems a few analysts are starting to see the light, so not every analysis is a shill for oil and legacy automakers.
  • ...a combination of 1 and 3...perhaps..? It still comes back to 'credibility' and 'reputation' both as an analyst and a company. I would think in this industry, loosing confidence might be a HUGE trade off...? As is...

    That still leaves questions unanswered RE SnP...? Can you 'touch' those questions..?
  • Probably more a case of "delusions of grandeur" that there's a vast conspiracy against Tesla by anybody.

    A bit amusing that no one has ever been charged with Tesla stock manipulation except this guy...

    "The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Elon Musk, CEO and Chairman of Silicon Valley-based Tesla Inc., with securities fraud for a series of false and misleading tweets about a potential transaction to take Tesla private. "

    https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-219

    Almost Trumpian in accusing others for what they are guilty.
  • Hanlon’s razor “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity”

    ...except where trillions of dollars of oil money are involved

    I’d say it’s a little of both.
  • You have to give the analysts a bit of benefit of the doubt. The TSLA valuation is so high that Tesla cannot possibly build as many cars as would be needed to justify it.

    The highest valuations are only conceivably correct if Tesla makes a lot of money outside the car business, probably in the electric energy business.

    Will Tesla be sufficiently successful there too? Nobody really knows. It seems possible, but from our current knowledge a bit far-fetched.

    There is some hype around TSLA, no doubt. The question remains whether it is justified. I am a Tesla fan, so I hope that it is. I'm merely saying that there is a little risk involved.
  • "Almost Trumpian in accusing others for what they are guilty."

    Pretty ironic when FishEV claims others have "delusions of grandeur" in the same post.
  • It would appear analysts don't have a 'valuation tool' that can accurately encapsulate Tesla's multifaceted value...! Since Tesla is a 'horse of a different color'...at this point, I can see where it might require a modicum of imagination to connect the dots. Unlike many retail investors...most analysts lack 'imagination'...it's not part of the job description...having the skills to make accurate calls..? Yeah...

    I learned the inclusion into the SnP is not an 'invitation', it's a board decision. Inclusion would be followed by a large 'required' stock purchase...but I for one, don't mind 'waiting' for the share price to go higher before they 'see the light', realize they are betting against Elon or gain an 'imagination' and extrapolate the numbers. I would like to see them hold off for a couple years. There would be a MUCH bigger 'bounce' when they buy in.

    mgmichna...I can understand your cause for pause. Yes...there IS a certain 'leap of faith'....trust, that Elon will see his vision unfold. I see Elon's impassioned faith in his EV vision reflected in his long term retail investors as well. This 'faith' further solidifies his future. Of course, along with the investor 'faith'...comes expectations. Elon's ambitious goals have set the bar high and he has been MEETING or BEATING those goals. He has a strong and talented team building a vertically integrated product that is ultimately independent of outside influences that adversely affect 'the bottom line'.

    All of Tesla's ventures synergize and build off of each other. The car, batteries, energy storage and sales, solar, self driving, HVAC, the software, the robotics, insurance. These are all happening simultaneously...all start up companies in themselves. With the Beta tests...self driving is HERE. The spin off markets like robo taxi are still in the planning while waiting for self driving to go beyond testing and become more widely used. This is close. The Tesla product, the company and the culture, Elon's leadership and his focus on innovation and improvement is what investors are investing in...we are investing in the vision and the future that Elon is committed to create.

    It's true, it's difficult to put that 'value' into a price metric...but it's there and it's tangible...
  • edited October 25
    > @Myke said: The spin off markets like robo taxi are still in the planning while waiting for self driving to go beyond testing and become more widely used. "

    GM's Cruise subsidiary has them. Only company to do it so far.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-15/gm-s-cruise-unit-wins-permit-for-robotaxi-tests-in-san-francisco

    "Cruise will be allowed to conduct both daytime and nighttime tests on certain public roads with speed limits no greater than 30 miles per hour and only in fair-weather conditions. The company said it plans to start testing by the end of the year."

    "“We’re not the first company to receive this permit, but we’re going to be the first to put it to use on the streets of a major U.S. city,” Dan Ammann, Cruise’s chief executive officer, said in a blog post Thursday."

    Tesla has not applied for a permit yet.
  • "Tesla has not applied for a permit yet."

    Maybe because they completed the testing phase over two years ago.
  • > @TabascoGuy said: > Maybe because they completed the testing phase over two years ago."

    These are the only companies, along with Cruise to have applied for permit.

    "Others in that small group include Alphabet Inc. unit Waymo LLC, Nuro Inc., AutoX Technologies and Zoox -- which received its permit last month."

    No record of Tesla applying for test permit unless you can produce one.
  • Oohhh, a bunch of slot car developers applied for testing permits. Yippee!

    I have no access to Tesla's internal testing protocols, neither do you. I do know that they have actual working full self driving cars on the road right now.

    Mine will be one soon. Maybe a month or two. Yours? Maybe a year or two, if ever.
  • > @TabascoGuy said: > I have no access to Tesla's internal testing protocols..."

    The permits to test are public record. Tesla's not there.
  • And that's an issue because?
  • > @TabascoGuy said: > And that's an issue because?"

    Because you claimed Tesla did it two years ago but can produce no record from public records that Tesla ever applied for a permit to do it, much less actually do it as Cruise is doing now.
  • Why would they need a permit to test if they are already done testing?
  • > @TabascoGuy said:
    > Why would they need a permit to test if they are already done testing?

    The law.
  • And I didn't "claim" they did it, I saw them do it. Along with the rest of the world.
  • Oh so now Tesla is breaking the law. You're a peach.
  • > @TabascoGuy said:
    > Oh so now Tesla is breaking the law.

    You said they tested Robotaxis without permit two years ago which would be breaking the law, yes.
  • Show me where I said that.

    I did say "Maybe because they completed the testing phase over two years ago."

    Do you want me to explain to you what that means?
  • @TabascoGuy

    DMV has issued Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permits (with a driver) to the following entities: Tesla

    https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/

    Tesla has had this permit since before they showed Full Self Driving at Autonomy Day.
  • You probably should have read your link.

    Permit Holders (Driverless Testing)

    As of October 15, 2020, DMV has issued Autonomous Vehicle Driverless Testing Permits to the following entities:

    AUTOX TECHNOLOGIES INC
    Cruise LLC
    NURO, INC
    WAYMO LLC
    ZOOX, INC
  • You probably should have also posted the permit holders for the actual testing being done. But seeing as that does not corroborate your lies that Tesla is breaking the law, I can see why you would have omitted that tidbit. Par for the course.

    Permit Holders (Testing with a Driver)

    As of September 18, 2020, DMV has issued Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permits (with a driver) to the following entities:

    AIMOTIVE INC
    AMBARELLA CORPORATION
    APEX.AI
    APPLE INC
    ARGO AI, LLC
    ATLAS ROBOTICS, INC
    AURORA INNOVATION
    AUTOX TECHNOLOGIES INC
    BAIDU USA LLC
    BMW
    BOSCH
    BOX BOT INC
    CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE
    CONTINENTAL
    CRUISE LLC
    CYNGN INC
    DEEPROUTE.AI
    DELPHI
    DiDi RESEARCH AMERICA, LLC
    EASYMILE
    FORD
    GATIK AI INC
    HELM.AI INC
    HONDA
    IMAGRY INC
    INCEPTIO TECHNOLOGY INC
    INTEL CORPORATION
    KAIZR, INC.
    LEONIS TECHNOLOGIES
    LYFT, INC
    MANDO AMERICA CORP
    MERC BENZ
    NAVYA INC
    NIO USA INC.
    NISSAN
    NURO, INC
    NVIDIA CORPORATION
    PHANTOM AI
    PLUSAI, INC
    PONY.AI
    Qcraft.ai
    QUALCOMM TECHNOLOGIES, INC
    RENOVO.AUTO
    RIDECELL INC
    SF MOTORS INC
    SUBARU
    TELENAV, INC.
    TESLA
    THORDRIVE, INC.
    TOYOTA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
    UATC, LLC (UBER)
    UDACITY
    Udelv, Inc
    VALEO NORTH AMERICA, INC.
    VOLKSWAGEN
    VOYAGE AUTO INC
    WAYMO LLC
    WeRide Corp DBA WeRide AI
    XMOTORS.AI, INC
    ZOOX INC
  • I wonder if FISH realizes there are a few more places other than California to test - like the rest of the world. Unless he's done an analysis of every state and country, we don't know where Tesla does some of it's testing. They can also test on private land without any filings.

    Then there is the massive real user data that Tesla owns - 1000s of times more than everyone else combined. They can run simulations on this data, which is far safer than running a couple of prototypes around town and hope you don't kill someone with test software. It also allows you iterate far faster and validate each internal release.
  • > @TabascoGuy said:

    > As of September 18, 2020, DMV has issued Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permits (with a driver) to the following entities:

    As of October 15, 2020, CA DMV has only issued five permits for Driverless Autonomous Driving, at least per your link. Only GM's cruise has deployed autonomous cars for test per the permit.

    https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/

    As of October 15, 2020, DMV has issued Autonomous Vehicle Driverless Testing Permits to the following entities:

    AUTOX TECHNOLOGIES INC
    Cruise LLC
    NURO, INC
    WAYMO LLC
    ZOOX, INC
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