General

Question about battery supply

Hey everyone,
2018 Tesla 3 owner and reservation for Cybertruck. Also, I am long term supporter and follower of the company.

I have a question that I have not seen anyone really talk about when in comes to EV competition. Going back to battery day, Elon mentioned how the whole ecosystem is going to be strapped for batteries.

So given all these new EV's car coming out by OEM's how are they going to reach the capacity they want without batteries?
Tesla and Panasonic has Giga Nevada outputting 35gwh and they are still battery constrained. Are OEM's keeping quiet their partnerships with battery manufacturers? How do they expect to catch up to Tesla if Tesla is leader in this already. Any thoughts on this. Shorts keep saying competition is coming but they only mention the cars, they do not mention the batteries that are supposed to go into the cars.

Comments

  • The short answer is they're not. And that honestly is the one point never spoken about when it comes to so-called "competition".
  • > @kevcabrera_98067743 said: > I have a question that I have not seen anyone really talk about when in comes to EV competition. Going back to battery day, Elon mentioned how the whole ecosystem is going to be strapped for batteries."

    To go to full production, 100 million cars/light trucks, world has about 50 years supply of Lithium. New CATL and GM Ultium batteries cut the Cobalt content significantly so that is not a constraint.

    Add in evolving battery tech, fuel cell tech, and supply constraints don't look to be an issue.

    Certainly not in short term (next 25 years).
  • LG Chem and Samsung are two very big battery suppliers. LG particularly supplies, Jaguar, VW, Audi, Mercedes, Hyundai and GM (Chevy Bolt)
  • I think the original posters question is not current battery supply but as he said in his post
    “ how are they going to reach the capacity they want without batteries? “
    Elon has clearly stated his production goals into the millions of cars.
    I would assume all the other OEM’s would have similar goals is sales (millions).
    Elon has publicly stated the concern for having enough batteries for Tesla. And given that Elon is on top and forefront of EV battery production, I agree w OP that other OEM’s have been relatively silent in discussing where these tens of millions of batteries are going to come from for their cars.
    To simply say that the current large battery producers will fulfill the demand contradicts Elons concern.
    I trust Elons concerns over OEM’s silence on the issue.
    If indeed the current large battery manufacturers will be able to provide the forecasted demand, then I would assume we would start to see a multitude of new large battery production facilities being built around the world. Unless Im missing something, I know there’s been some talk but I don’t see much action.
    I share the OP concern, where are the OEM’s planning on getting tens of millions of batteries when there is concern even before sales are a mere fraction of what they are supposed to be in a few years.
    Also, Tesla has a 100% recycle of their batteries, have any other OEM mentioned anything about their millions of batteries and recycling ?
  • > @"David N" said: >And given that Elon is on top and forefront of EV battery production;

    CATL with its "million mile battery" and GM/LG with their low cobalt battery would be the current leaders in EV battery tech.

    Both their features speak to the issue that @kevcabrera_98067743 poses of battery supply by 2035 when all cars and light trucks will be mostly EV.

    CATL's million mile would mean that EV's would last longer, extending the supply window from 50 years to 100 years.

    GM/LG's low cobalt battery means the most expensive and constraining resource, Cobalt, is less constraining.

    In next 10 year we will likely see more advances in battery tech.

    @"David N" said:> Also, Tesla has a 100% recycle of their batteries, have any other OEM mentioned anything about their millions of batteries and recycling.

    Good point and yes all the mfgs have 100% recycling plans and plants though what really happens is the batteries get recycled not has raw materials but into things like forklifts, lifts etc. for another 10 years.
  • @FISHEV
    “Both their features speak to the issue that @kevcabrera_98067743 poses of battery supply by 2035 when all cars and light trucks will be mostly EV.”

    I don’t think kevcabrera is referring to 2035(15 years from now), my guess is he is referring to next 5-7 years as the OEM’s ramp up into the millions (supposedly).
    Unless of course the other OEM’s have no plans to sell that many EV’s or they simply can’t sell that many due to their undesirability compared to the competition.
    I think we’ve seen the undesirability aspect play out right before our eyes with OEM’s offering EV’s that don’t quite pass the test as far as what customers want or expect.
    Maybe it’s design, engineering, battery design, battery/power management , a combination of everything, call it whatever, other than Tesla, has anyone else pushed the envelope?
    (And don’t mention cars and trucks that are proposed but haven’t been made yet).
    Battery supply issue still stands, where are other OEM’s going to get their millions of batteries from in the next couple of years?
    My take is their not going to get them. When OEM’s can’t get enough batteries, OEM’s will put out and advertise that their EV’s are selling so well and in such high demand that the battery companies can’t keep up. It’ll all be a bit of misleading information to the public, I think we call that fake news today. When in reality it was poor planning on OEM’s part.
    I hope I’m totally wrong.
  • @David N: Well stated!

    It's already an issue. Audi, Merc and Jag all delayed or slowed down production of their initial EV offerings due to lack of battery supply. GM and others are starting to build A plant. They also all seem to have A source and A battery supply partner. Seems like this is going to be just like 5 years ago. "Whenever the OEMs decide to build an EV, they will destroy Tesla." Now it's "whenever the OEMs decide to build a lot of EVs, the Battery Fairy is going to come and save the day."
    Tesla is the only manufacturer who is working diligently on this issue, with multiple suppliers and source factories.
  • > @"David N" said: > I don’t think kevcabrera is referring to 2035(15 years from now), my guess is he is referring to next 5-7 years as the OEM’s ramp up into the millions (supposedly)."

    With low volume of EV's coming out, the battery mfgs such as Panasonic, CATL and LG, all Tesla's suppliers, are likely seeing surplus.

    Ford Mustang EV's are shipping now and no supply issues and that is from LG's Poland plant.
  • LG Chem seems to be attempting to meet demand. From:
    https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201012003851320

    "LG Chem is a key supplier of batteries to electric vehicles, including those of GM, Ford, Renault, Volvo, Audi, Volkswagen and Daimler, as well as South Korea's largest carmaker, Hyundai Motor Co., and its smaller affiliate, Kia Motors Corp.

    LG Chem said it is on track to boost its production capacity to 100 gigawatt hours by the end of this year, which is enough to supply batteries for about 1.7 million electric cars."

    Interestingly, they are also a supplier to Tesla, likely for the Powerwall and Powerpack.

    Even more interesting, there are rumors that Tesla may invest in and/or buy LG Chem, which is in the process of being spun out from LG.
    https://www.just-auto.com/comment/is-tesla-gearing-up-to-buy-lg-chems-battery-division_id198158.aspx
  • > @"TeslaTap.com" said: > Even more interesting, there are rumors that Tesla may invest in and/or buy LG Chem, which is in the process of being spun out from LG. > https://www.just-auto.com/comment/is-tesla-gearing-up-to-buy-lg-chems-battery-division_id198158.aspx"

    "Rumors" might be putting a bit strongly as the source is "media" so you have media speculating on media speculation.

    GM is LG's partner on the new Ultium low cobalt. Be amusing to have GM supplying batteries to Tesla.
  • Even more interesting if Tesla becomes the owner of Ultium and is the supplier to GM! I suspect Tesla doesn't need LG Chem as much as GM does. So far Ultium is a hope for the future, as no such production exists today.

    I think Tesla is better off creating there own battery production based on Tesla's own designs rather than buying LG Chem, although it may be worth more to Tesla for the energy division that uses LG batteries now.
  • edited November 3
    > @"TeslaTap.com" said: > Even more interesting if Tesla becomes the owner of Ultium and is the supplier to GM! "

    It's GM trademark so Tesla would have to buy it and GM's shares of the LG/GM joint venture from GM.

    It is interesting that no EV manufacturer has partnered with Tesla or felt that Teslas "free" patents had any value to them.

    As far LG spinning off LG battery as IPO for cash, LG would likely keep controlling interest.
  • "It is interesting that no EV manufacturer has partnered with Tesla or felt that Teslas "free" patents had any value to them."

    That is not the case. They just didn't want to partner with any company that was serious about EV's.

    It's hard to badmouth a competitor if you're using their tech.
  • "It is interesting that no EV manufacturer has partnered with Tesla or felt that Teslas "free" patents had any value to them."

    Makes a lot of sense. All the other companies want EVs to fail and want to forever build pollution machines. Why would any legacy company want the best quality battery when they can look for the cheapest cells, slap a fancy trademark name on them, and make an inferior product that meets their compliance goals? So far all the offerings are inferior to Tesla in just about every way.
  • > @"TeslaTap.com" said: > Makes a lot of sense."

    It does if better tech exists so even Tesla suppliers like CATL, LG and Panasonic do not use Teslas "free" tech.

    Can't even give it away.
  • Except that's not the case.
  • Tesla has not patented most of its cell Technology. It's kept as trade secrets. Still, much of the knowledge is generally available. Sort of sad others use inferior technology to save a couple of dollars. Pouch cells seem like such high risk, especially seeing how many cars with these cells get recalled and how the vehicles that use them are dramatically less efficient than Tesla.
  • > @"TeslaTap.com" said: > Tesla has not patented most of its cell Technology. It's kept as trade secrets. Still, much of the knowledge is generally available."

    Well the battery tech was Panasonic's. The new "Tesla" cells are proprietary to Panasonic/Tesla for Tesla same as LG/Ultium cells are proprietary to LG for GM.

    EV batteries are pretty much almost a commodity now with so many mfgs with large plants going up as they know government regs require EV's
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