The Big One: Guessing now, last trade before Christmas

edited December 2020 in General
Not including After Hours.
We have 3 weeks in Dec building up to the climax of S&P inclusion.
Profit taking.
FOMO. Fear of Missing Out.
Already off a high start.
Do I hear $1000?
And will you be selling?


  • The results of the survey due out today, whether the trade want a split tranche
  • What the hey, put me down for $1200.
  • It usually builds up to the news, falls a bit after.
  • But as up to 18% of the stock gets locked into Indices, that means less stock available to trade daily.
    Increases the price.

    But eventually, the value will taper off, yes?

    Or not.

    Are there any good financial advisors left out there? :)
  • And this for December:
  • @Tronguy; At 1400, that is presplit 7000, Kathy Woods forecast for way down the track.
  • @Ross1: No argument with your 7000 analysis. But i'm wondering about a squeeze that won't quit with regards to the S&P 500 inclusion.. And what, if anything, Tesla delivers with respect to FSD. There's been some arguments that delivering a more-or-less complete means that Tesla would realize a boatload of revenue; hence, there's a possible move to get this into the hands of punters before the 31st. If that happens, well, 1200 might be a real possibility.
    What the heck, if I'm wrong, exactly how much money am I out? :smile:
  • I will be selling approximately zero.
  • Selling zero; even without news it won't make much sense to sell on December for long term investors anyway due to tax reasons.

    742.0 as index funds sorting out their mess...
  • Even if the price drops again to $400, im not selling.
  • What news happened that caused the sudden drop to 555 and subsequent recovery?
  • It’s the daily drop of the manipulators. Almost always around 10:30
  • It is going in to S&P in one lot, Dec 21
  • > @andy_connor_e said:
    > Even if the price drops again to $400, im not selling.

    Of it drops that much I am buying more.
  • If wide release of FSD beta 2.0 comes out I say 700-800 range.
  • Give me a number or you will be disqualified :)
  • @andy:
    $400 is 2000 presplit, old money.
    I went out to dinner and celebrated when it got there moving upwards!
  • Nasdaq closure:
    December 24, 2020 Christmas Eve Early Close - U.S. 1:00 p.m.
    December 25, 2020 Christmas Day Closed

    The S&P uptake is Dec 21 which is a Monday.
    The early close...1 pm on Dec 24 is a Thursday.

    So there are a coupla days in there for Crazy, or not as the case may be.

    For myself, I see all the practised manipulation over recent months being brought to play: this is probably a good thing in that it takes the racy out of crazy.

    Expect 800- 1200?
    Or can the manipulators hold it down?
    Is 750 the new 420?
    What do you think (in the comments below, Fred) lol.
  • Ok 700 then
  • My guess is +/- around 900.
  • Incredibly the stock is reducing daily: those manipulators have fine tuned their game very effectively.
    Is it actually AI? An algorithm?
    Whatever, they have had a bit of practice for this event, and are doing rather well as the Poms might say.
    Let us say, none of us expected what we have today: as I write, AH is at 619.30, a 5, 10 or 20% drop on what might have been expected.
    However, this levelling might stave off a severe drop which some expected days after the 'merger' with salt & pepper S&P.
    We might not actually get the drop.
    It was with this in mind that I set the Guess this month for Xmas eve effectively: the 21st is unpredictable predictably, but by Xmas Eve, it may have settled , prior to some movers shakers and market makers taking a few days or weeks break.
    I would expect volume to be affected over Xmas, but the Robinhood crowd to be more active.
    However, I know nothing as you know, stand to be corrected. BH and Papafox might better guide us, but these are my personal thoughts and not Financial Advice.
    While I sold out 2/3 of my TSLA when the Trumps got Covid, I am happy I did for the security, I scored 6 figures and since then I have nearly spent it all on diversification.
    CIIC, SBE, GP, HYLN, XPEV, CAT, HOG, and more. Volkswagen just now (just 10 shares).
    I might have well been better off not selling, but we were not to know , therefore insecure >> change.
    Hopefully some diversity will be good, and besides, it gives me an interest outside TSLA. I bought back some TSLA too :)
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