Model S

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Extended shut down of Model S and X lines.

Could be time for a refresh.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/12/tesla-model-s-and-x-production-will-shut-down-for-18-days-email.html?__twitter_impression=true
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Comments

  • Maybe an opportunity for a refresh. Shutting down factories for an extended time over the year end is a pretty common thing in SV. Our semiconductor fab runs 24hrs with the exception the year end.
  • Typically there’s a week off after busting for EOQ. This is highly suspect for a line change for new chassis, remodel for for 4680s.
  • @Big, based on price cuts and generally more tired technology in the S/X models, indeed a refresh is the most likely explanation.

    I'm glad I went for the MY when I sold my TSLA in March instead of going for the MS LR. Even though our June '20 MY is already somewhat obsolete as to improvements made since then in window glass, sound insulation, and heat pumps, it still has HW3 and a wide-screen for Tesla Theatre. ;-)
  • Seems odd to do a refresh where the employees are surprised with unpaid time off. A refresh or line change over usually has skilled labor in training for the new thing. This seems more like a supply chain issue.
  • Possible. Tesla have been pretty immune to Covid supply chain effects so far.

    Maybe a run on MCU2 as the older model are facing upgrade demand?

    Could also be a bit of Osbourne effect with the plaid reported coming out in a year.

    Maybe MX buyers are being drawn to the MY, and MS to the plaid. I know the feeling of the latter.

    Maybe a price cut coming soon for these so called tired models.

    In any case, the volume of these cars is low, and I expect another record quarter.
  • Seems late, but it could be all hands on deck trying to get out 500,000 deliveries.
  • @BH - makes sense. Any cars started on the 24th are unlikely to be deliverable by the end of the year. Better to have those employees helping with deliveries.
  • My entirely selfish outlook on this.

    Exterior and interior refresh that aligns with Plaid structural change requirements. This then would give Tesla 6-9 months to work out the design and manufacturing issues related to the changes so my Plaid comes perfect!

    That would be sublime.
  • Employees are getting forced days off with 1 week pay. I don't think they are helping with deliveries. Tesla did not retool for 18 days for the MS refresh.

    Judging from the timeline for MS plaid edition, I doubt there is a refresh, but I could be wrong.

    I don't think this is bad news though.
  • Did I do the math right? They end up with 3 days of unpaid time or need to use PTO after you count in the weekends, holidays, and 5 days Tesla is paying for. Not bad at all.
  • Remember - the price for the S when up in Europe. Those deliveries would start most likely in March. Which means they are building built in January.

    Sounds like a refresh to me.
  • Pretty sure they can work the holiday time off if they so choose.
  • > @Bighorn said:
    > Pretty sure they can work the holiday time off if they so choose.

    They aren’t sure. Neither is Tesla.
  • From the OP link:

    “Employees working on the lines were told they were being given a full week of pay for the forced time off, but were encouraged to seek shifts working for, or even volunteering in, other parts of the business for the remaining unpaid days.”
  • Only 2-3 weeks for delivery for a new MS. Same for the MY. This from the Tesla site.

    Maybe the furlough is part of the game of pennies, nothing to do with supply.
  • > @Bighorn said:
    > From the OP link:
    >
    > “Employees working on the lines were told they were being given a full week of pay for the forced time off, but were encouraged to seek shifts working for, or even volunteering in, other parts of the business for the remaining unpaid days.”

    Post the rest of the communication to employees.
  • Employees get to volunteer for either paid work on other lines starting on the 28th, or assisting in deliveries starting on the 26th. They could also use PTO.
  • Factories tend to stay open if there is any work available. Extra shifts are often times offered over the holidays in these situations.

    If the factory closes, it will be a lost opportunity, but it might happen anyways for the right reason or or more likely set of reasons. Take your pick at this point.

    If there is less work, factories will reduce work shifts, and reassign personnel until more work is available again.
  • Too many Taycan shift workers taking their jobs... ;)
  • Ok, I have a likely reason for the shutdown. It was announced a few months ago that they were building an entirely new paint shop for the S/X at Fremont. Currently, a single paint shop is used for all Fremont built cars. If you've been on the factory tour, they move the body-on-white frames on a huge overhead conveyor from the factory floor to the paint shop.

    Now it may be the new paint shop is completed, and Tesla needs to reconfigure the factory to move body-on-white S and X frames to the new paint shop. If this is what is happening, it's sort of amazing they can do this in a couple of weeks.
  • Note : The factory is NOT shutting down. Tesla is only shutting down the S/X line. I assume that is for retooling.
  • You don’t shut down a line for 3 work weeks to do a mild “refresh” like they did in the spring of 2016. I have been saying that the new MS will be out in 2021 because of the appearance of the Plaid MS on the “Ring”. To incorporate the wider stance and 3 motor set up, they would need to create a physically different car. They certainly would do that just for the Plaid option. Like the MS right from the get go was designed to handle AWD, but that didn’t come out until late 2014. So I highly suspect that a new structure aka skateboard for the S and X will come out in Jan to accommodate the Plaid set up, for whenever they release it.
  • TeslaTap - your paint shop theory make sense. BUT if that is the case why doesnt Tesla come right out and say it? Instead folks are talking about much more consequential 'refresh' things, and such talk will kill off sales for S/X for December. We can only hope for some kind of official announcement on Monday.....
  • Here is something that may be a clue. this morning i noticed on the ordering page for MX the wait time is 8-12 weeks. It was just 2-4 weeks when i last looked a couple days ago. The MS ordering page has 2-3 weeks. I am guessing that is the same as last week. I am hoping this means the MX will get a major refresh and get rid of those FWDs!
  • They plan on these shutdowns every year. When any type of upgrade to the assembly process is deemed necessary, it must be decided upon if it needs to happen immediately or wait until the shutdown.

    Seeing as Tesla constantly strives to improve efficiency, there could be a huge number of these backburner upgrades being held for the shutdown. Especially if larger pieces of equipment are being replaced. Easily enough to fill three weeks.

    Seeing as the estimated delivery of Plaid is still late 2021, I wouldn't expect any changes to the current assembly line specifically for Plaid would be necessary right now.

    Would I like to hear that Plaid was in production and available sooner? Absolutely. I'm still working on getting permission from the boss to buy one.

    It sounds more likely to be something not to hang your hopes on.
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