TSLA. $$$. Past, Present, and Future.



  • Really quiet volume, and sideways motion of a few bucks.

    Lots of benchmarks waiting to see how dust settles from DC transition.

    But earnings are just days away now, and should not disappoint.

    Lots of street upgrades, and unsurprisingly, lots of fud articles to try to blunt them.

    The longer it hovers around 850 though, the harder it is to persuade long term holders that its overvalued.

    Earnings should be fun.

  • Does anyone know if and how Elon’s stock options compensation can have an affect on earnings?
    Is it counted as an expense that can negatively affect gross profits?
  • Great points but your predictions are not Nostradamus because your points and the conclusions are too clear ;-)
  • Inconel - 🤙🏼Nostradamus ascriptions are infamous for being 2% actual prediction, and 98% contrived interpretation ... after the fact.

    The key to outperforming the Nostradamus rubric, is to actually write the prediction before it has happened 😎
  • More sideways pre-market moves on immaterial low volume.

    No longs will part with their shares, and scant fund buying at the moment.

    4 trading days before earnings. At some point, expect we’ll see inactivity yield to recognition of boffo earnings achievements.

    In this quarterly reporting season, TSLA is set to be a standout growth performer relative to the pandemic-damped auto, energy and tech peers. Street modeling 10-11 Billion in Q4 revenue.

    Sales and registration clues have leaked to guess where it’s headed.

    Macro is always a wild card, but Tesla keeps growing rain or shine now.
  • Oh, and pretty soon folks will realize TSLA has no correlation to BTC.

    Greater fool artificial scarcity vs. a performing dynamic asset that constantly expands its TAM.

    Well, duh.
  • Uphill battle without good news between contract expirations and macro slide. 840 might be a gift.
  • MMs dropped it briefly to 830 for their purposes and now the market resumes at low volume, susceptible to manipulation at will.
  • Yep, even slower day today. Can’t put a lot of stock in prices with no volume.
  • Can’t conjure sellers before good earnings.
  • Nobody is sellin'

    Nobody is buyin'

    Everyone is waitin'

    Very excited for the earnings call . . . i expect huge and unexpected profitability as Tesla recognizes the reduction in the price/unit produced.

  • A HODLin' we will go. A HODLin' we will go. Hi ho the dario......sorry, been overly giddy over this for the last few months, and occasionally need to check myself.
  • Sentabo - HODL is creaming all those ‘smart money’ wags.

    Unless you bought LEAPs in the bottom of covid, when so many were frantically selling off, HODL is very hard to beat.

    Option leverage looks cool until you discover that more than half the gain disappears in tax consequences. Also uncounted is the psychic costs for constant worry of owning expensive paper that might suddenly turn worthless.

    SamO - operating leverage gains in q4 earnings will mark the beginning of a virtuous cycle that should continue for the event horizon. 🚀🚀🚀
  • Drone footage of Fremont casting press, and cloaked vehicles, seem consistent with the prospect of a new Model S 4680 in spring.

    Job listings for semi production in Nevada further suggest the 4680 reaching volume production targeted for mid-year.

    Elon, Zach, Jerome, Drew, et al will probably be reserved about specific comments in the earnings call, but just their posture will tell a lot about what’s coming in 2021.

    This real execution on the 4680 will make an impression on investors, and will not be bad at all for the stock price.

    Beats the heck out of cgi animations of flying taxis from GM.
  • In other news -

    Boeing announces it will have bio-fueled versions of its kerosene-burning jets by 2030.

    That’s right, 2030, (not 2023).

    Clearly, Boeing knows just where to spend its research budget, and displays the zeal of an Olympic sprinter.

    They might as well deliver Tesla an engraved invitation to disrupt them in aviation.

    If you had told me in 2012 that major automakers would not offer a car competitive with Model S for more than 9 years, I would have said you’re joking.

    But legacy auto literally watched motionless - for years - and let Tesla steal a march on them, to dominate EVs.

    Truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

    Aviation disruption will, soon enough, be another milestone. It’s the gasoline auto industry implosion redux.

    Another trillion dollar industrial sector that Tesla is uniquely competent, motivated, and equipped to disrupt and monetize.

    At some point, more investors will begin to get it, recognize the pattern, and add yet another NPV to TSLA’s market cap stack, quantifying what this is worth.

    Boeing has become Intel and Kodak. Past greatness gone fallow.

    It’s a culture thing.

    Money can’t cure this.

    The old guard stands fixed on the deck, watching their once mighty cruiser descend beneath the waves. They let it sink while they collect their pensions.

    This many titans falling sequentially like dominos is quite astonishing.

    I’ve never seen anything comparable in industrial history.

    But wait, there’s more! HODL🖖🏼
  • Other than auto OEMs BOeing is one of the least innovative companies ever.

    Truly they put the 0 into Being.
  • Awesome Dave Lee talk with Jason DeBolt, 39, on how he came to accumulate 15,000 shares of Tesla.

    Jason is an engineer, who’s worked at Google. The stark contrasts in culture as seen from his own primary data - are telling.

    Exceptional insights into the latent intrinsic value, and differences between Tesla and other tech companies.


    Sleeping in his Model S for 6 months, (in the Google parking lot), saved enough rent to generate 400K current value in TSLA.

    Nicely indexed with topics like margin, conviction, taking profits, etc.

    Will make you feel pretty damn good, and raise your conviction about the extraordinary equity you own.

    Search YouTube ‘Dave Lee Jason DeBolt’

    Posted today.
  • So which pattern this week, and why?

    1. Price rises on earnings expectations, and eases after announcement.

    2. Price restrained before earnings, and rises after positive results.


    Historical Data

    Q4 ‘19 popped after earnings announcement.

    Q1-Q3 ‘20 popped before earnings, and eased after.


    Some reasons why Q4 may break recent pattern -

    - First quarter Tesla now in S&P

    - Much float now held by institutional longs, more still to buy

    - Rising operating leverage starts virtuous cycle of strength

    What say you?
  • Hoping for both.

    I think the chances of big earning beats are decreasing as the industry learns to cheat off the papers of amateur Tesla investors on Twitter🤓
  • > @Bighorn said:
    > Hoping for both.
    > I think the chances of big earning beats are decreasing as the industry learns to cheat off the papers of amateur Tesla investors on Twitter🤓

    I actually still think that the analysts are a total failure and at least 3-6 months behind amateurs like ourselves, SMR, Gali . . . Sandy Munro repeated that several times yesterday at the Malibu Supercharger.

    He also said that Bloomberg and some other outlets will no longer bring him on because he bought and sold TSLA. The public is about to get a whole lot MORE misinformed about Tesla's advantage.

    And so it goes.

    $895 after earnings? I think it passes $900. But I am almost always wrong about short term prices . . . so I just HODL and keep buying.

    In the long run, amateur investors who know earnings reports inside and out, have listened to the calls, watch the interviews, learn about the underlying science (first principles) of Tesla and understand the next 5 year trajectory are laughing at everyone but Cathy Wood and Ron Barron (and to a lesser extent, Ross Gerber and Jim Cramer, who I consider to be an weak longs.) in the finance community that have been (and continue to) playing catch up on the underlying substance, rather than short term profits.

    The best process is no process.

    Get Rich.

    You don't need to time the markets. You don't need an MBA. If you'd bought one share per month since IPO, you'd have ~600 shares valued at ~$500,000 with a cost basis of ~$10,000.

    Tesla has 10X-100X from here.
  • Sandy is also being discounted for his objective engineering having bought a Tesla.

    Did you meet any threadsters at the Malibu meet up? Pics made it look a little busier than when I charged there alone a couple weeks ago.
  • Sandy has "bought" almost every car he takes apart and announced he's getting 2nd Rivian to drive, with the other for disassembly. He also announced that he'd personally driving a Cybertruck, so this isn't news.

    I have watched almost all of his public speeches since his first Model 3 rant about build quality, where I went after him. And then less than a month later, he announced his big "mea culpa" and said that Tesla had more advanced technology than most US fighter jets.

    From then on, I knew he understood that this was bigger than bending metal. And when he discussed it with us, he was more disappointed that it was taking Tesla this long and that QC wasn't catching these small things. But he reiterated several times that Tesla's lead was 5 years and maybe more over traditional OEMs and that the lead was only getting bigger.

    The seafood restaurant had a line out the door, so it was busy with regular traffic as well. Everyone masked but many failing to social distance at 6 ft.
  • Pelosi just disclosed TSLA calls purchased on Congressional disclosure forms.

    Pelosi bought 25 call options for shares of electric-vehicle giant Tesla with a strike price of $500 and an expiration date of March 18, 2022 and paid a total of between $500,001 and $1 million for the Tesla stock options.
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