General

TSLA. $$$. Past, Present, and Future.

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Comments

  • @TT - you took my "under position". I'm playing the optimist. Will split with you if I win.

    Actually, I'll split with everyone if I win.
  • Better’s Bar 🥃🥃🥃 Dec 31 TSLA Calls
    ——————————————————————

    $795.00 - Samo

    $772.50 - Sentabo

    $750.00 - Ohmster

    $734.20 - NKYTA

    $725.00 - Mark K

    $714.20 - SbMD

    $700.00 - Aerodyne

    $682.69 - Bighorn

    $649.50 - TeslaTap

    ——————————————————————

    SbMD - Low-hanging weed.

    TeslaTap - Dark before chocolate. HF’s fool enough robinhooders.
  • @Mark K "- "SbMD - Low-hanging weed."

    I couldn't resist the nod to EM :)
  • Better’s Bar 🥃🥃🥃 Dec 31 TSLA Calls
    ——————————————————————

    $795.00 - Samo

    $772.50 - Sentabo

    $750.00 - Ohmster

    $734.20 - NKYTA

    $725.00 - Mark K

    $714.20 - SbMD

    $700.00 - Aerodyne

    $682.69 - Bighorn

    $649.50 - TeslaTap

    ——————————————————————

    SbMD - Low-hanging weed.

    TeslaTap - Dark before chocolate. HF’s fool enough robinhooders.
  • I don’t think there will be any big news by 12/31 unless FSD beta goes on wide release, in which case I shall lose. Gary Black’s prediction of a 10-20% pull back tempers my near term unbridled enthusiasm. Lots of voodoo happening with the inclusion and patience for a pull back by benchmark buyers may allow for a post inclusion drift down.
  • $765

    Still Grinning ;-)
  • Im going with $740
  • @Bighorn - Gary is pretty close to HF traders.

    Deconstructing it, he knew voodoo would happen at the last minute.

    It did.

    He knew HF’s would burst-buy. What he didn’t know was who might burst-sell at the very same time, to quell the transient peak.

    HF’s could not sell before close - only at-close. If they dumped their 120m shares before close, the price would tank, cutting their haul by 10B or much more.

    So instead, they pre-set a separate big buy of around a billion dollars for the last minute, hoping no one could react in time. Left unmatched, such a huge volley would spike the price. Remember, this would be the known HF big sellers doing the unexpected - a big buy.

    But white knights planned for this, and put in their own pre-timed bulk sell counter-move. That blunted the transient, and kept it sane.

    In EE-speak, someone clamped the circuit with a honkin’ zener diode.

    Net result was limited to a $40 spike instead of $100 or much more.

    Unopposed, HF’s would have been able to skim another 20B+ on their inventory sale, and could have locked out anyone else from selling at that same price (say 750). Yet Index funds would been stuck with 750 at-market-close cost basis.

    Retail traders mostly couldn’t get in at close, and would have had to accept $670 AH or perhaps lower Monday. A big black-eye from that transient price, with the hit to index funds, would stun buyers and discredit the stock temporarily, allowing discount buyers to move in. The perfect smash and grab crime, made to order.

    Shooting fish in a barrel is a neat trick, but only possible if there’s no sheriff around to swat away the muzzle. Fortunately, the sheriff knew their scheme ahead of time.

    Someone stepped in, and I think I know who. We may find out later in the still-confidential part of the SEC filing.

    Now, to the matter of Gary’s allegiances -

    He’s no dummy, and knows the inside well. Too well.

    He projects what HF’s want retail to believe. He tweeted nuggets with tantalizing parts of the story, but left out the crucial piece.

    Gary’s 650-690 range, sounds like a good estimate. Too good. HF’s managed the trades to stay near 650, precisely per plan. Then they surprise-tanked it to 630. Shock and awe in the last minutes, to scare folks out before close.

    Then, yet a second wave of robbery - they recovered it up to 650, so you’d think you were damn lucky to get a shot at the low end of Gary’s prediction, pushing you to panic sell before close. It lingered there for agonizing minutes. Beckoning you to sell before it might shock-drop yet again, prodding you to sell off, before you ever knew the true, all-time high closing price.

    Then, with seconds remaining, HF’s released the Kraken. Last minute access to that size trade is something very few can marshal. It was long planned, and Gary is smart and connected enough to expect It. 10 to 1 leverage is just too good not to try a burst-buy of a billion dollars worth, right before folks expect you to sell it all. It could lift your inventory sale yield by 10-20 billion. The quick back and forth, the buying by whom we all expected was an imminent seller - these are textbook head-fake tactics.

    Pumping it to 750 and then quickly shutting the door was the plan. Skimming $20 billion from voiceless retirees in index funds was the prize.

    If you read Gary’s carefully crafted tweets, he has plausible deniability.

    With their plan foiled, he can now say, ‘Hey, my range was pretty close at the high end’.

    Had the plan worked, $750 for a few seconds, and then 670 or less for all the serfs AH, it would have tanked badly Monday, and Gary would be able to say - ‘I warned you there’d be a pull-back ... this 750 spike was over its skis, and needed a correction’. The HF’s would have grabbed 20B more premium, and the serfs would have paid the bill for the false top. All with plausible statements ... just like a Chancellor Palpatine narrative.

    Well, they didn’t get it. Another interest stepped in, aligned with our retail interests, and with lots of inventory to flood in at just the right moment.

    A few layers of logic are needed to understand who would want that, and who would be able to trade a single massive lot at a precise moment. But the answer will come in time, after more detailed post-mortems are learned. Remember, this was an historic trade, it will be studied.

    In the meantime, Gary’s predictions of a 10-20% pullback are not destiny, they are self-serving prophesy, and they require us to swallow the narrative for it to work.

    Remember Samo’s Math haiku. Let is be your mantra right when you’re freaking out from the latest head-fake treachery.

    I always take whatever Gary says with knowledge of the source.
  • I had blocked Gary for a few months. I wanted to hear all the voices around something as novel as this inclusion, though, so I recently refollowed.
    I’m the staunchest HODL with nary a trade in 6 years until a couple weeks ago. SamO and I are on the same page there. You should join us the next time we have a SaMo play date.

    This is just my retirement entertainment, watching the ticker.
    I appreciate your insights as the machinations of what just transpired are Greek to me.
  • Better’s Bar 🥃🥃🥃 Dec 31 TSLA Calls
    ——————————————————————

    $795.00 - Samo

    $772.50 - Sentabo

    $765.00 - Shesmyne2

    $750.00 - Ohmster

    $740.00 - andy_conner_e

    $734.20 - NKYTA

    $725.00 - Mark K

    $714.20 - SbMD

    $700.00 - Aerodyne

    $682.69 - Bighorn

    $649.50 - TeslaTap

    ——————————————————————

    Probability density starting to fill in around Ohmster’s $750.

    Shesmyne2 and andy_connor_e just flanked him, above and below.

    The wisdom of the crowd may well play out and predict behavior.

    Someone’s going to be drinking well here 🥃
  • Excluding exogenous macro wildcards, it seems more and more like the two biggest price drivers are -

    1. Continued, even higher volume demand from Benchmark Funds.

    2. Speculative HF head-fake moves, and retail response to them.

    Demand makes the price go up, and fakery tries to move it sideways.

    It’s an old, dumb dynamic, but the tension between them drives this.

    Hope authentic demand carries the day.

    Capital should go to those who create value, rather than pilfer it.
  • “Capital should go to those who create value, rather than pilfer it.”

    ^^ this.

    @"Mark K" it just tells me HODL. But I don’t understand half of what or whom you are talking about.

    😁
  • HODL is all you need to know. This is the way.😎

    All the rest is about how con artists do their dirty deeds.

    Cunning and clever, I’ll give them that.

    But for all their riches, petty scumbags.
  • > @"Mark K" said:
    > HODL is all you need to know. This is the way.😎

    Love the Mando reference.

    And I'm with NKYTA, I don't understand half of what you're talking about. But I'm enjoying one half, and trying to decipher the other.
  • @Bighorn - whether in SaMo or perhaps Austin, a good time shall be had by all.

    Btw - if you’ve got any ER exposure risk with Covid, you might want to look into Ivermectin as prophylaxis.

    We’re at 300,000+ dead, and this therapeutic that works has been staring us in the face, dirt cheap, and safe enough to win a Nobel prize.

    It’s the big pharma equivalent of how Wall Street slowed Tesla.

    Google ‘Front Line Covid Critical Care Alliance.‘

    Look at their new I-Mask+ protocol pdf. Their prior MATH+ protocol using right-timed methylprednisolone has been the standard of care that has saved a lot of lives nationwide. Now it’s been revised to emphasize Ivermectin.

    Search YouTube for ‘Dr Kory’ to watch his recent senate testimony, shaming NIH and CDC to stop their foot-dragging, and validate it.

    Misdirection and inaction, to profit from misery, instead of fixing it. Even while people die that could have been saved.

    It saved a good friend’s life here in Los Angeles.
  • @WW_icefree - I like your thinking :)
  • > @"Mark K" said:
    > @Bighorn - whether in SaMo or perhaps Austin, a good time shall be had by all.
    >
    > Btw - if you’ve got any ER exposure risk with Covid, you might want to look into Ivermectin as prophylaxis.
    >

    Thanks. Fortunately, retirement keeps me at arms length from clinical exposure anymore. Very interesting data about Ivermectin about which I was unaware. The HCQ story has most highly dubious of novel, efficacious solutions in plain sight. The vaccine may preempt the data necessary to render a verdict, but it sounds more more plausible than most approaches, including My Pillow herbal therapy favored by the current administration.
  • @Bighorn - HCQ was a lame option - it’s only useful mechanism was as a zinc ionophore, but most took it without zinc, so - useless.

    Zinc that‘s delivered into the cytoplasm can attenuate viral replication up to 100X, but is only helpful pre-exposure or early incubation. Won’t help those already sick. There are cheap zinc ionophores like the flavinoid quercetin, from red onions. Over the counter, and safe, with no Q-T interval risks like HCQ.

    But Ivermectin is a true antiviral, and is far more potent. It has multiple mechanisms of defense. It snubs the cornona spikes aimed at ACE-2 receptors, snubs viral entry into cell nucleus, preserving your natural cell defense of interlukin release, snubs the CD-147 ‘catch and clump‘ microthrombi that can harm heart, lung, liver and kidney tissue in patients who get even moderate symptoms of covid.

    Post-convalescent CT scans of patients who recovered without effective therapeutic support show measurable degrees of vital organ tissue damage even in those who ‘recover fully’. This bug has unmapped long-term effects, that may even include mutagenic issues years from now, similar to HPV.

    Best advice - avoid getting infected.

    Ivermectin can interdict each of those mechanisms, and is helpful at all phases - prophylaxis, incubation, expression of symptoms, and even the acute pulmonary phase during cytokine storm and pulmonary edema that cause O2 sat crash.

    Vaccines are great, but 2 shots and 3 months to get sufficient antibodies is a slow response tool. An effective therapeutic is immediate, and can save your life before we get everyone vaccinated.

    Moreover, covid is mutating, just like influenza always has. The current D614G genome from Italy has 5X more viable spike proteins than the Wuhan origin species, and hence spreads faster.

    A broad spectrum antiviral like ivermectin can help us deal with the upcoming mutuations immediately, rather waiting for the next vaccine iteration. This pathogen can change faster than even modern mRNA techniques can be distributed to match it.

    So reduce inoculum titre (masks), use prophylaxis, and treat infection early. Ivermectin is a very useful tool.

    One personal annecdote - a family friend in her twenties who’s immunocompromised, got strep last year, and went into sceptic shock and almost died. 10 days n the hospital, pre-covid.

    Early November, she tested pcr-positive for covid, then started declining fast. Even to the point of a neurological inflammation - going numb on one side or the other of her whole body. Brain inflammation too.

    Started on ivermectin, and turn-around began in hours, the next morning. Stayed on it for a week of antiviral support, and is completely well now.

    The stuff works, but commercial interests are slowing recognition to stretch out their gravy train from this crisis. It will be a scandal when the dust settles.
  • @"Mark K" - glad to hear about your friend. If you want us to add more to the ivermectin discussion, we could keep your thread here "pure" and discuss in (aka dive into the craziness of) the COVID thread. I can understand any trepidation about that :)
  • Good suggestion to preserve the utility of a price prediction thread.

    Those interested can see the google links.

    We’ll get back to TSLA now.
  • Better’s Bar 🥃🥃🥃 Dec 31 TSLA Calls
    ——————————————————————

    $1,000 - WW_icefree

    $795.00 - Samo

    $772.50 - Sentabo

    $765.00 - Shesmyne2

    $750.00 - Ohmster

    $740.00 - andy_conner_e

    $734.20 - NKYTA

    $725.00 - Mark K

    $714.20 - SbMD

    $700.00 - Aerodyne

    $682.69 - Bighorn

    $649.50 - TeslaTap

    ——————————————————————

    WW_icefree - unshackled optimism that cuts to the chase.

    Most of us don’t doubt TSLA will surpass $1,000 with time.

    The current tug of war of with HF trading trickery, and also industries being disrupted, is what restrains other’s guesses you see above.

    It would be nice If we could go straight to the endgame, since it’s so clear to most of us, but markets trade on diverse perspectives, most of which are ignorant of latent reality until it‘s palpably obvious.

    So as to price for Dec 31, which is the target here, your $1,000 guess represents the new high for how fast that tug of war plays out.

    Don’t think anyone here will be upset if you win the bottle 🥃

    In fact, we’d probably splurge for a second one 😀
  • Re Index tracking funds (IF’s) vs. Benchmark Funds (BF’s)

    A few comments about relative behavior and effect on TSLA price -

    IF’s just track whatever it does. They minimize tracking error, and don’t try to actively manage holdings. But they do hold long, so they do shrink supply for speculative trading.

    BF’s have discretion to choose if, when, and how much to include.

    BF goal is to outperform index, not match it perfectly.

    BF funds are bigger, about $7B, vs $5B for IF’s.

    If BF’s don’t believe in TSLA growth story, they don’t have to buy any of it.

    But if they see the handwriting on the wall, their performance will be better if they buy before more material events like Q4 blowout, big bond sale, or 2 new factories coming online.

    TSLA is #6 now, and material events are coming, so no position at all for BF’s is untenable for 2021.

    So if they reach this conclusion, buying earlier advantages their yield.

    Hence I expect BF’s to systematically accumulate their weight, probably through steady dollar cost average buys. This will automatically harvest dips on a statistical basis (and damp them).

    It argues against a sudden huge buy that would peak the price early, and also argues in favor of not delaying the start of buys. So I see a steady updraft from BF buys integrated over time.

    The notion of BF’s trying to force a pullback to depress the market, before taking their position, this seems mathematically flawed. If they try to scoop up their weight on a pullback, the price will rise as fast as they’re doing their large buys. They can’t buy all their huge weight on a pullback without erasing the pullback. So they’ll likely be metered.

    Net net, not sure that BF’s have much incentive to try to trick the market like Hedge Funds (HF’s) do.

    If there’s an attempt at an induced pullback, it will be HF’s through burst-selling and paid fud headlines, as we’ve already seen.

    So Monday will give us some data.

    I suspect HF’s may try some shock attacks to try to start the day with a trend down, but BF’s would be advantaged by buying it back up and may damp the influence HF’s can have.

    Another 20% long holder group will get added with BF’s, so at some point there’s just too much capital long, and it gets too expensive for HF’s to try to stoke a sell-off.

    So I earlier guessed a modest relaxing of price Monday to 670, but maybe we’ll be surprised by BF’s stepping up sooner rather than later.
  • Covid relief package may give a macro boost distinct from strategic buy in.
  • $900B Stimulus package won’t hurt.

    Maybe HF’s won’t ‘fight the Fed’ Monday, and we might just barely crest 700 for the first time.

    Don’t forget that fakery relies on unexpected changes in direction.

    HF’s could buy shares again Monday to create a mini-bubble just so they can pop it.

    All bets are off when you’re dealing with con artists.
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