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TSLA. $$$. Past, Present, and Future.

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  • I'm rooting for SamO and WW_icefree.
  • These gyrations of daily movement are like cries of the lamb before the lion. Tesla is establishing its own gravity. It will move the world to sustainable energy and take over the market capitalization of enormous industries:

    long-haul freight
    taxi/Uber/shuttle/train/plane/bus
    last mile delivery/packages
    coal/natural gas/diesel/gasoline extraction and sales
    worldwide utilities
    dams/nuclear power plants
    Nation states that depend on fossil fuels for primary/secondary income (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Mexico, USA, Canada, OZ)

    I think it is hard for people to wrap their heads around two ideas:

    1. Tesla is displacing many different industries, on their own.
    2. There are few ecosystem competitors. Current OEMs are ill-equipped to compete with products AND software for FSD, V2G, energy production, scale, etc.

    Tesla has already won. Nobody has the battery factories. Nobody has the ability to scale, quickly. All the hand waving about competition has been the same hot air that's been floating around since 2012 or earlier. Tesla-killer du jour as click-bait but NEVER, and I mean NEVER coming to pass in any serious way. (Bolt, i-Pace, e-Tron, Taycan). Why didn't these cars sell well??????????

    Why? It's the infrastructure, stupid. Despite being caught by Dieselgate first and having to pay penance to set up electrocute america . . . it's a half-assed effort with tiny stations (Tesla 2012 size) and fewer true fast-charging stalls.

    I've been telling this story to everyone who would listen. it was as clear to me and others that Tesla's special sauce is the ability to be free. More free than owning a gas car because, as everyone knows, you can make your own fuel, and refill, at home.
  • Since we began driving our cars 8 years ago, we saw this day coming.

    Those open to new and better ways,

    will wrap their brains around it, embrace it,

    and profit handsomely from it.

    Those that don’t,

    won’t.
  • Disappointingly, it looks like I might be the closest if it remains where it is now. Current price $628. I don't expect much volatility between now and the end of the year, but who knows :)
  • The Apple story seemed the thinnest of rumors.
    Source: “people familiar with the matter told Reuters.”

    Expect some volatility from benchmarks getting in on the dip before a potential ascent, predicated on positive Q4 data.
  • Apple

    I was/am a fan and still have too much of their stuff, but there is no comparing a phone to an automobile. Neither in the mechanics nor controls software.

    The fundamental problem is they are just supply chain consultants when it comes to manufacturing. They have no direct experience and will need to partner with a legacy OEM to scale. And their supply chains are convoluted messes.

    The end product will be overpriced in a market that has someone already producing brand recognized product with attractive and constantly better pricing. Their price models based on premiums won’t work here.

    Tesla is a design powerhouse with innovative experience that is not hampered by legacy paradigms or factories. And they have a leader who has a rare understanding of bottomline improvements through quantum leaps in manufacturing efficiencies and cost reductions through design.

    The Ives end game was perceived beauty over real functionality. It’s only now getting out of that rut. Too late in Tesla’s world.

    Apple EVs? Bah humbug.
  • EM confirmed today that Tim Apple passed on a meeting to buy TSLA at 1/10 the current value.

    640 close
  • I think a lot in the community greatly underestimate how good traditional auto is at making cars at low prices

    For example the best selling car in the world is the Toyota Corrolla which you can buy in hybrid form for £16,500+VAT and also for comparison a Honda Civic Costs £14,250+VAT and for comparison a Tesla Model 3 is £36,250+VAT

    I think it's definitely possible a third party can do contracted out EV manufacturing and make a success out of it

    Why can't apple go to Toyota and say we want a Corolla sized car minus the ICE infrastructure for 20% less cost would give them a full car for £13,200

    Apple can design the car and the batteries and software and Toyota can build it

    £13,200 base
    +£4,440 for 60KWh batteries at pack level of $100/KWh = 270 mile range

    I know it's not as simple as that there is more to it but bear in mind we started with a hybrid which already has an electric motor and power electronics. Let's add another £4,000 to beef up the electric motor and power electronics and do thermal management etc

    You are at £13,200 + £4,440 + £4,000 = £21,640

    And to check for sanity we can compare it to price of existing job Tesla EV eg today you can buy the ID4 for £21,250

    So yes it looks like a decent guess


    As such I would say Apple can indeed design and make an EV and get traditional auto to build it and Apple can sell it. If they put a 10% margin on top they could build a corrolla or ID3 sized EV for about £24,000

    If a corrolla is too down market for you then they can partner with for example Audi to make an Audi A4 sized quality product. Audi A4 today you can buy base spec for £20,000+VAT. Add the £4,440 for batteries and £4,000 for other systems in the EV and 10% apple margin and you are at £31,600 which is cheaper than a model 3


    As batteries get more energy dense and cheaper these contracted out manufacturing becomes more and more feasible

    Also bear in mind the above costings for ICE are retail final costs. Apple or whoever can probably contract manufacture off Toyota or Honda or VW at much lower prices than the retail prices quoted just like buying anything in bulk gets you discounts
  • A lot of nonsense
  • Nonsense indeed.

    A good way to prove that stacking the margins of subcontractors does not lead to a profit, is this -

    Cars are a century-old business.

    Point to the examples of a profitable car company that farmed out its assembly factories to external oem’s.

    Uh, Fisker?. How’d that work out?

    By contrast, who’s the iconic success during the rapid ascent of ICE cars?

    Henry Ford.

    His strategy - cost advantage through vertical integration.

    During that same century, no carmaker said ‘hey, why don’t we get rid of hundreds of parts, and replace them with mega-castings?

    None.

    Enter upstart Tesla, who says ‘take out this cost, make it so’.

    Invent the alloy needed to make it practical.

    Spec the giant presses that make those parts in 2 min per shot.

    The shocker is that if Tesla made a Corolla with this new tech, they’d cut the cost by 20%.

    Toyota is great at the old ways, and the old limits.

    But Tesla is defining the new ways.

    They cost less, and do more.

    Henry Ford will look much less iconic when this transition is done. A much more shocking change is emerging.

    Phones are easy to farm out, because most of the value is in the silicon architecture, which Apple wisely chose to bring in house.

    Cars are very different.

    Name one major automaker that decided to get their US cars made for them in China, and shipped here.

    None.

    Why didn’t they?

    Cars are way more complex to build than pocket electronics.

    The fact that some people will swallow the fud about Apple 2024, is why hedge funds pay to print it.
  • Even Gary Black’s kid gets it -

    “@elonmusk is this generation’s Steve Jobs. Give them a choice between a Tesla and an Apple car as their vehicle of choice, Gen Z will choose $TSLA every time.“
  • By 2024, whose brand will have grown stronger? Apple or Tesla?
  • I guess you could say the Yugo at $4,000 shows how automakers can compete with Ferrari and Lamborgini. Silly to compare a bare-bones low-performance subcompact with a premium high-performance midsize car.

    Apple is not likely to make a cheap subcompact car. I'd expect if any Apple car appears, it will be in the $150K+ category competing with the Taycan for the ultra-luxury category. I wish them luck. Far more likely they will offer some advanced CarPlay software sold to other manufacturers who haven't a clue or the ability to create software.
  • Just for kicks, remove the word “Apple” and replace it with “Tesla” in the points made as to why Apple would not succeed in the car business.

    Eerily familiar — sometime exact — arguments were made about Tesla. Glad the naysayers were wrong.

    This brings up a point that would be filed under Basics of Innovation 101: Never underestimate anyone.
  • ^Hmmm.... Re-read my points.
  • > @Ohmster said:
    > ^Hmmm.... Re-read my points.

    No qualms with your points, @Ohmster, and I read them as well.

    My point is still really simple, and comes from the work that I do in innovation and business, with insights I have into different industries which fall into the orbit of this discussion:

    Never underestimate anyone.

    IMO, Tesla has nothing to fear if Apple enters into the EV market.
  • SbMD -Folks who believe that Apple’s culture will produce the same rate of innovation as Tesla’s culture, should sell TSLA and buy AAPL.

    I know execs in both. I own TSLA, and not the other.

    Apple has spent billions on project Titan for >5 years and produced no product.

    To stay out of the game while the market is being carved up, is to give up precious tactical opportunity that is ephemeral.

    When Steve introduced the iphone, he raced like mad to ship it before anyone had anything close, and claimed the ground on which today’s $2T enterprise stands.

    ‘Wait and see‘ is not going to end well in this race.

    ‘The Germans are coming’ was last year’s fud. It didn’t work.

    ‘The Tech Titan’s are coming’ is a retread of the same doubt play, with a new spin.

    It’s a response to ‘Tesla is not an automaker, its a tech company.’

    ‘OK then, new plan - Tech company is coming for them.’

    Just a new spin of synthetic doubt to churn shares.

    Goal is the same as before -

    ‘Pay no attention to the unmatched achievements of Tesla.’

    Cars is cars.

    Stocks is stocks.

    Disruption? What disruption?
  • Back to $TSLA price - what say yee as to Wednesday’s close?

    Flat, down, Up?

    My guess - $670.

    Reasoning - Fud has limited half-life. Q4 numbers are crushing it.
  • $667.23 (up 4.2%)
  • I was (probably, still, if you look at the various devices I use) an Apple fanboy.

    I shortsightedly sold my Apple stock the day after Jobs died. If we had kept it my TSLA shares might be less.

    That said, Apple is not 4 years away from anything EV.

    I bet on the right horse, methinks.
  • NKYTA -

    Not a sh*tty bet.

    From end of 2011, to the Dec 22, 2020

    AAPL - 9X

    TSLA - 112X

    Yep, that was the right horse.

    Me thinks that horse will outpace the other again.

    Velocity >> Mass.

    KE = 1/2 M(Vsquared)
  • The thought exercise is all well and good, and frankly I don't believe Apple is making an EV. Smokescreen, IMO. They are working on an AI system, and cars are the way to test them. Same as other companies.

    As a shareholder in both Apple and Tesla for a long time, and VERY pleased with the results, I can attest to the fact that it is possible to own both without cognitive dissonance nor regret.
  • No one would complain about Apple’s share performance.

    9 year ROI -

    AAPL 9X —> 28%/yr

    TSLA 112X —> 69%/yr

    Apple has been very good.

    Tesla has been extraordinary.

    I expect Tesla’s ROI going forward to outpace peers.

    Apple will be good.

    Through 2030, I can see a basis for Tesla’s ROI to be 10X Apple.

    For me, that justifies moving capital from one to the other.
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