General

Starting March 15th, Tesla Forums will become read only. To continue the conversation with the Tesla community visit engage.tesla.com.

Cathie, she wrote

Article by Cathie Wood, ARK Investments
She of the $7000 presplit forecast

Comments

  • Difficulty posting the article :)
  • Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
    https://www.ft.com/content/cbe2861c-06bf-4a9e-919a-f42687b260cc


    Cathie Wood AN HOUR AGO
    0
    Print this page
    The writer is founder and chief executive of Ark Investment Management

    The global economy appears to have entered a period of convulsive changes, some exceptionally good and others devastating, that could shape financial markets for years to come.

    In Ark’s view, any company not investing aggressively in one or more of five major platforms of innovation will lose its way. In harm’s way are companies that have engineered their financial results to satisfy the short-term demands of short-sighted investors.

    Those that have leveraged their balance sheets to buy back shares and pay dividends are at particular risk as they will have less balance sheet flexibility to invest in response to the technological shift.

    Seeded during the tech and telecom bubble more than 20 years ago, the five main platforms of innovation that we think will transform the global economy are: DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. These involve 14 technologies including gene therapies, 3D printing, cloud computing, big data analytics, and cryptocurrencies.
  • Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
    https://www.ft.com/content/cbe2861c-06bf-4a9e-919a-f42687b260cc

    Importantly, they cut across economic sectors, posing problems for research efforts that are short term, siloed, and highly specialised. In our experience, most research departments of banks and fund managers are structured in that way, creating inefficiencies to be exploited as “convergences” create the new world order.

    We think sectors most at risk of disintermediation are energy, industrials, consumer discretionary, communications services, healthcare, and financial services.

    As autonomous transport evolves, for example, autos, rails, and airlines are likely to capitulate to the convergence of robotics, energy storage, and artificial intelligence. Combined, these forces will collapse the cost structure of transport. Traditional healthcare is also likely to give way to the convergence of next generation DNA sequencing, artificial intelligence, and gene therapies.

    Meanwhile, in traditional financial services, the middlemen that dominate today’s financial ecosystem face disintermediation thanks to application programming interfaces (APIs), social platforms and blockchain technology that will enable the convergence of business and consumer marketplaces.

    The convulsions will throw company forecasts for a loop, particularly in the developed world, which is saddled with mature infrastructure.

    Broadly defined, the sectors at risk of disintermediation account for more than half of the S&P 500. Though at small bases today, we believe most innovation platforms are entering dramatic growth trajectories thanks to lower costs and higher productivity.

    Spreads between companies on debt costs could widen dramatically as disruptive innovation — the likes of which we have not seen since the Roaring Twenties — causes dislocation

    For example, we forecast that in response to the 28 per cent cost decline in lithium-ion batteries for every cumulative doubling in units produced globally, prices will continue to fall, “turbocharging” electric vehicle sales.

    According to our estimates, EV sales will increase 20-fold globally during the next five years, from an estimated 2m and about 2.5 per cent of the market this year to 40m and about 45 per cent in 2025. Even if you think this ambitious, the direction of travel appears clear. It is one reason why Ark is a shareholder in Tesla.

    The bad news is that the more expensive petrol-powered cars that dominate the market today will lose almost half of their sales base. Moreover, if transport goes autonomous, as we believe it will, the auto market will continue to shrink as the capacity utilisation per car increases. 

    More broadly, if our forecasts for the five innovation platform are near the mark, there will be an economic impact. Both growth in the value of goods and inflation are likely to surprise on the low side of expectations as market share shifts to the poorly measured digital world and as the “good” deflation associated with technology takes hold.

    We believe the winners will win in a big way but losers, particularly those that have levered balance sheets to satisfy certain stakeholders, will unwind. While risk-free interest rates are likely to remain low, spreads between companies on debt costs could widen dramatically as disruptive innovation — the likes of which we have not seen since the telephone, electricity, and the automobile burst on the scene in the Roaring Twenties — causes dislocation.

    So, investors beware. Innovation appears to be evolving at such a rapid pace that traditional equity benchmarks are being populated increasingly by so-called value traps — stocks that are “cheap” for a reason. Critical to investment success will be moving to the right side of change.


    Cathie Wood
  • Sorry about the mess: ^^
  • edited December 2020
    Flagged for blatant copyright abuse told to you by the website itself!
  • Why not just post a link?
  • I hope the *copyright police", derotam is just joking.
  • > @Xerogas said:
    > Why not just post a link?

    Exactly, not that hard.
  • If investment advisors were actually good at what they claimed to be good at, they wouldn't have a day job. They'd be sitting on a tropical island somewhere, holding a drink with an umbrella in it, enjoying the fruits of their superior insight.
  • Some articles have a wall, then everyone says they cannot read it.> @derotam said:
    > > @Xerogas said:
    > > Why not just post a link?
    >
    > Exactly, not that hard.

    I usually post links where I can, but I dont know about everyone else but they dont come thru as a link for me, I have to do a copy/paste.

    And the other thing is, a lot of folk post replies which are irrelevant just because they do not bother to go thru the open a link process.

    Any other ideas?
    R
  • > @Frank99 said:
    > If investment advisors were actually good at what they claimed to be good at, they wouldn't have a day job. They'd be sitting on a tropical island somewhere, holding a drink with an umbrella in it, enjoying the fruits of their superior insight.

    This always baffle me too. They claim to be an advisor and that their advise do work. Why not channel the advise toward their business and see what becomes of them
  • What do investment advisors have to do with Cathie Wood? Do people say the same sort of thing about Warren Buffett?
  • Because investment advisors aren’t actually good at investing. What they are actually good at (well, the successful ones anyway) is convincing people with money to give them some of it.
  • I understand the concept. It seems unrelated to Cathie Wood.
  • Investment advisor?
    I never looked at Cathie Woods as an “Investment Advisor”.
    To me an investment advisor is someone who suggests to you where to invest your money.
    In the past three years I’ve followed her I’ve never heard any such thing.
    She shares her research along with how and why she came to the conclusion she came too. She will share where she is putting her money. Tasha is good also.
Sign In or Register to comment.