Model 3

Reasonable estimate of Level 4 FSD on M3

Given the current state of the FSD Beta, what would be a reasonable estimate of when:

- M3 FSD could be Level 4 - read, set a destination and I dont have to be paying constant attention.

- M3 can be Level 5- read, send the car to go fetch my wife from the office/ mall/ airport

Comments

  • Its also fair to comment on/ ask if it can even happen with the current h/w & sensor suite.
  • really?...
  • No one has a clue, you should know that.
  • Somewhere between 0 years and 150 years is my bet
  • Your question is incomplete. There's at least two separate questions in there (well, 4). You need to clarify as to whether you are asking about when the car will be technically capable of the above vs when will your local government allow them to be used. For example, the current requirement for having to touch the wheel while autopilot is engaged is largely due to regulatory requirement. If that wasn't required, then perhaps the current autopilot could be rated higher than the level 2 that is currently acknowledged.
  • If you aren’t required to pay attention, then you can also send the car to pick up your wife. The main advantage that Level 5 has is that it’s expected to work in any conditions, and anywhere, that a human could. Level 4 would be fine, as long as the car gracefully tells you that conditions are outside of its capabilities and you should take over. What it does now is completely the opposite of “graceful”.

    Level 4 permits the car to only be autonomous on freeways, or only during good weather. I think we’ll see the current model 3s make it to level 4 on the freeway in 2021. Level 4 on urban/suburban/rural streets is gonna take a few more years. The question in my mind is whether or not Tesla will ever claim level 4-I believe that doing so transfers liability for accidents from the driver to Tesla, and that’s a big liability to take on.
  • I am looking forward to cheaper insurance rates when we get Level 5
  • > @prashanthsharma_98105560 said:
    > Given the current state of the FSD Beta, what would be a reasonable estimate of when:
    >
    > - M3 FSD could be Level 4 - read, set a destination and I dont have to be paying constant attention.

    Actually Level 4 Autonomy by definition would still require you to potentially take over in an edge case, so what you're asking for Level 5 Autonomy. Since this also requires regulators to also approve, it will also depend on where you live.

    Now my expectation based on the advances that Beta testers are seeing with the FSD Beta, and videos they are showing, I expect we will see sometime in Quarter 2 some form of a wider release of the FSD Beta. Now this will more likely be Level 3 Autonomy, and very likely by end of 2022 some areas will allow for the Level 4 and Level 5 driving. Since this is dependent of both state and local regulators the timing for where you live will vary.
  • Multiple states allow for Level 5 state wide now, even though there Level 5 consumer vehicles.
  • > @prashanthsharma_98105560 said:
    > Given the current state of the FSD Beta, what would be a reasonable estimate of when:
    >
    > - M3 FSD could be Level 4 - read, set a destination and I dont have to be paying constant attention.
    >
    > - M3 can be Level 5- read, send the car to go fetch my wife from the office/ mall/ airport
    >
    >

    Level 4 is not happening for years to come and not sure it can be achieved with current hardware. When it does it will be speed limited and geo-fenced just like all the other manufacturers of Level 4 vehicles that actually have been doing it for years and millions of miles.

    Level 5 is never going to happen with our current Tesla models. Tesla has never demonstrated the ability to perform as a Level 5 robotaxi. For that matter, no one else has either. A Tesla is never going to be driverless. It will never fetch your wife from anywhere without someone behind the wheel.

    Level 3 on limited-access highways maybe but I really don't think so. More likely Level 3 will be limited to 30 mph in heavy traffic. Honda has approval for this in Japan.

    The current FSD beta is nothing more than a driver assistance feature. Frankly, in its current state, it is a form of entertainment for those that want to play. I find actually driving the car to be much more enjoyable and safe than anticipating what the car might do wrong at the worst time possible.
  • https://electrek.co/2021/01/25/tesla-partners-samsung-new-5nm-chip-full-self-driving-report/
    Tesla engineers have designed their own FSD chip, a 5nm wonder that will be fabbed by Samsung as successor to HW2.5 and HW 3.
    Unless we are offered some kind of HW3 switchout of our present setup, NONE of the current Model 3's will have Level 5. Take that to the bank.
  • My FSD purchase for $3000 in 2019 guarantees that my M3 will have all necessary hardware and software to achieve Level 4 and 5 vehicle operation. This assumes my M3 is operational by the time Tesla enables their vehicles with Level 4 or 5.

    I still think Tesla should allow an owner to transfer FSD one time to a new Tesla vehicle purchase. With the current situation (having bought FSD), I have a strong financial incentive to try and keep my 2018 M3 for as long as possible rather than buy a new Tesla 3-4 years from now.
  • According to earnings call Level 5 this year
  • That's a very easy question to answer. I bought FSD in 2019 because it was going to be feature complete by the end of the year...they said the same thing in 2020. The answer is clearly always "by the end of the year." Not sure why you'd even ask when they've been very steady in their answer as to when FSD will be done. ;)
  • guydude -
    I haven't listened to the full earnings call, but I very much doubt that anyone associated with Tesla said "Level 5". That has very specific capabilities listed for it, and Tesla works very, very hard to not describe the specifics of what "Full Self Driving" means.
  • > @Frank99 said:
    > guydude -
    > I haven't listened to the full earnings call, but I very much doubt that anyone associated with Tesla said "Level 5". That has very specific capabilities listed for it, and Tesla works very, very hard to not describe the specifics of what "Full Self Driving" means.

    Elon has been making the Level 5 statements for years.

    Tesla Autonomy Day on April 22nd, 2019

    At the 3:31:42 point in the presentation, Colin Langan with UBS asks Elon this specific question. “Just so we understand the definition when you refer to feature complete self-driving, it sounds like you’re talking level 5 no geo-fence? Is that what is expected by the end of the year? Just so we are all on the same page”. Elon states “yes”.

    The presentation is also full of references to Tesla's future robotaxi service.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE
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